RBI Survey Shows Inflation Fears Easing Among Indian Families

While expectations for inflation over the next three months remained stable at 8.9 per cent, the projected rate for the next 12 months saw a more notable decline

The survey also captured key demographic and geographic differences in inflation perception

Source : PTI

Indian households are reporting slightly lower perceptions of current inflation levels, according to the latest bi-monthly survey by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The “Inflation Expectations Survey of Households” for May 2025 reveals that the median perceived inflation rate dropped marginally to 7.7 per cent from 7.8 per cent recorded in March this year.

While expectations for inflation over the next three months remained stable at 8.9 per cent, the projected rate for the next 12 months saw a more notable decline of 20 basis points, standing at 9.5 per cent. This suggests a modest easing in inflation-related concerns among consumers.

Decline Seen Across Major Expense Categories

The survey, conducted between May 2 and May 11 across 19 key urban centers, gathered 6,079 valid responses. According to the RBI, “the median inflation perception declined by 10 basis points to 7.7 per cent in May,” signaling a slightly improved outlook on current price trends.

The data points to broad-based improvement, with softening inflation expectations reported across several categories such as food, non-food items, housing, household durables, and services. Interestingly, about 55 per cent of households still anticipate food prices to rise at a pace faster than the current rate.

Short-term inflation concerns remain concentrated in food products, with 82.8 per cent of respondents foreseeing a rise in the next three months. This is followed by housing 78.3 per cent and non-food items 75.3 per cent.

Regional And Demographic Variations Persist

The survey also captured key demographic and geographic differences in inflation perception. Retirees and individuals aged over 60 continued to report higher inflation expectations than younger respondents. Regionally, cities like Jammu, Kolkata, and Mumbai showed heightened sensitivity to inflation, whereas Bengaluru and Ahmedabad residents indicated a more subdued outlook.

Perceptions Versus Official Data

Although the report points to a marginally more optimistic sentiment among households, the RBI clarified that these findings are based on individual expectations and personal consumption patterns. “This survey reflects individual expectations and consumption patterns and may not necessarily align with official inflation data or the RBI's views,” the central bank stated.

Overall, the data highlights a gradual recovery in consumer confidence regarding inflation, with fewer households expecting significant price rises going forward.