Poor Nations Likely To Face Steep Food Price Rise By 2050: Report

The study also projected that as economies industrialise, farmers will receive an increasingly smaller share of consumer spending, a trend known as the "farm share" of the food dollar

While climate policies, such as greenhouse gas reduction initiatives, are expected to raise food prices, the study found that in wealthier countries, these price hikes would be cushioned due to the long supply chains

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Lower-income countries will face a significant rise in food prices by 2050 even with ambitious climate policies, according to a recent study. Consumer food prices are projected to increase 2.45 times, while producer prices could rise 3.3 times. The research, conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, highlights that although the increase in consumer prices may not be as steep for farmers in these countries, it will still make it harder for people to afford sufficient and nutritious food.

David Meng-Chuen Chen, a PIK scientist and the lead author of the study published in ‘Nature Food’, explained that in high-income countries such as the US or Germany, farmers typically receive less than a quarter of the food spending, whereas in Sub-Saharan Africa, they receive more than 70 per cent of the food price. This discrepancy emphasises the differing structures of food systems around the world.

The study also projected that as economies industrialise, farmers will receive an increasingly smaller share of consumer spending, a trend known as the "farm share" of the food dollar. Researchers analyzed food prices across 136 countries and 11 food groups, including both food consumed at home and away from home, using both statistical and process-based models.

"Most models stop at farm costs but we went all the way to the grocery store and even the restaurant or canteen," said Chen. This comprehensive approach also enabled the team to assess how climate policies aimed at reducing agricultural emissions affect consumer prices.

While climate policies, such as greenhouse gas reduction initiatives, are expected to raise food prices, the study found that in wealthier countries, these price hikes would be cushioned due to the long supply chains inherent in modern food systems. In contrast, lower-income nations, which typically have shorter food supply chains, would face more pronounced price increases. Specifically, consumer food prices in richer countries are expected to rise by 1.25 times under climate policies, even if producer prices increase by 2.73 times by 2050. On the other hand, consumer food prices in poorer countries could rise 2.45 times, with producer prices soaring 3.3 times.

The study's authors emphasised that while climate policies may pose short-term challenges for consumers, farmers, and food producers, they are crucial for the long-term sustainability of agriculture and food systems. PIK scientist Benjamin Bodirsky noted that carbon pricing revenues could be used to support low-income households, citing a 2021 PIK study suggesting this approach would benefit vulnerable groups, despite the inflationary pressures on food prices.

Hermann Lotze-Campen, head of the 'Climate Resilience' research department at PIK, added, “Climate policies might be challenging for consumers, farmers and food producers in the short term but they are essential for safeguarding agriculture and food systems in the long run. "Climate policies should be designed to include mechanisms that help producers and consumers to transition smoothly, such as fair carbon pricing, financial support for vulnerable regions and population groups, and investments in sustainable farming practices.”