West Bengal Panchayat Election A Litmus Test For Mamata Banerjee's Political Future In State And Beyond

Abhishek Banerjee (right), Mamata Banerjee’s nephew, has emerged as the unchallenged second-in-command within the TMC. But his efforts to expand TMC beyond West Bengal have been met with disappointment.

Source : PTI

The West Bengal panchayat elections have long been a subject of intense scrutiny due to the high levels of violence that have historically marred the proceedings. As the political climate in West Bengal heats up, a familiar pattern has emerged once again. Reports of violence have begun to surface, signalling a potentially tumultuous period ahead. Amid the ongoing political turmoil in Bengal, the Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, is facing grave accusations of perpetrating violence.

As the Trinamool continues to reject any allegations of violence against their political rivals, the upcoming panchayat election is all set to serve as a crucial test for Mamata Banerjee's leadership. The Bharatiya Janata Party, the CPI(M), and the Congress will be closely watching the events as they seek to challenge the TMC's dominance in the region. And with the 2024 general elections looming on the horizon, all eyes are on Mamata and her ability to maintain her hold on the Bengal panchayats. Should she succeed, it will be a clear indication that she is a formidable leader who remains unfazed by the corruption and other allegations that have been levelled against her party.

Mamata Banerjee's Hold On Minority Voter Base

According to political analysts in West Bengal, there are indications that the minority vote is beginning to lean towards the Left-Congress alliance at the grassroots level. Political observers are increasingly of the opinion the BJP has also managed to gain some traction as TMC faces a deluge of corruption allegations against its top brass. As a seasoned politician, Mamata knows how to retaliate. With the assistance of her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, who serves as the all-India general secretary of the TMC, she has initiated the party’s extensive outreach programme, ‘Nabo Jowar’, ahead of the panchayat elections.

Amid the current political climate, a sense of dissatisfaction is brewing among minority groups. This sentiment is exemplified by the increasing support for the Indian Secular Front, spearheaded by Peerzada Abbas Siddiqui. ISF has one MLA from the Bhangar constituency, Naushad Siddiqui. ISF joined hands with Congress and CPI(M) in the 2021 assembly elections. This partnership is expected to have a notable impact on the political landscape of the region. Should Mamata Banerjee succeed in maintaining her minority voter base, constituting approximately 30 percent of Bengal's total population, it would undoubtedly spell a significant triumph for the TMC. Should the minority votes sway towards the Left, Congress, and ISF, it could prove to be a significant blow to Banerjee's current electoral bid. Moreover, such a shift could also pose a formidable challenge to her future political aspirations, including the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and the next assembly polls.

The Real Challenger For TMC

In the past, the political landscape of West Bengal was characterised by a fierce battle between the Left and the Congress. In 1998, Mamata Banerjee made a significant move by parting ways with the Congress and establishing her own political outfit, the Trinamool Congress. Thenceforth, the political battle in Bengal was predominantly contested between the Left and the TMC. Since Mamata's ascension to power in 2011, the BJP has notably begun to make its presence felt. The political landscape of West Bengal has undergone a significant transformation in recent years. The 2019 Lok Sabha election saw the BJP emerge as the primary opposition party, marking a significant shift in the balance of power. Fast forward to the 2021 assembly elections, and the Left-Congress alliance failed to secure even a single seat, leaving the BJP as the sole opposition party in the state. Today, the BJP stands as a formidable force in West Bengal's political arena.

Over the last couple of years, the Left has gained significant traction by mounting legal challenges against the TMC over accusations of corruption. The recent byelections have shown a slight uptick in the vote share of both the Left and Congress parties. As the panchayat election looms, political analysts are closely watching for any shift in minority voting patterns and other key factors that could impact the outcome. Should the Left alliance gain ground and emerge as a formidable challenger to the ruling TMC, it could spell trouble for the latter. The situation is sure to be challenging for the TMC as they seek to maintain their hold on power amid a shifting political landscape. As the upcoming elections approach, the political landscape in West Bengal is becoming increasingly complex. While Mamata Banerjee's ruling party is currently concentrating on opposing the BJP, it's possible that the Left will re-emerge as a significant rival. If this were to happen, Banerjee would face the double worry of having to contend with two formidable opponents.

The BJP Factor In West Bengal

In the aftermath of the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party has been diligently working to regain its footing despite a series of missteps that contributed to its lacklustre performance. The BJP has recently gained new momentum because of Suvendu Adhikari. As the party's leader of opposition in the West Bengal assembly and a former close confidant of Mamata Banerjee, Adhikari's rise has been a significant development in the political landscape. At the crux of the BJP's struggles in Bengal lies a glaring issue: a dearth of trust in its leadership. Dilip Ghosh, the erstwhile president of the party in West Bengal, was widely regarded as a grassroots leader of great repute. However, due to his crude language and impractical approach, his political fortunes suffered. In a recent development, the newly appointed president, Sukanta Majumdar, has been seen lauding the efforts of Suvendu Adhikari.

In the initial days of the nomination filing process, the BJP made noteworthy strides by successfully filing a substantial number of nominations. The outcome of the upcoming panchayat elections will be of utmost importance, as it will determine the success of the BJP. Should the party deliver a strong performance, it would signify that the BJP has not only retained the backing garnered during the previous assembly election but also established a distinct voter bloc that was previously unattainable for the saffron party. Over time, the BJP in Bengal has shifted its political narrative and worked to develop a more localised approach. Should the saffron party's performance improve, it could potentially place Mamata in a difficult position both as a state politician and as an opposition leader. Banerjee's most notable achievement has been her ability to thwart the BJP's advances in Bengal. Any challenge to this accomplishment would undoubtedly have severe political consequences for her.

Rise Of Abhishek Banerjee

Abhishek Banerjee, Mamata’s nephew, has emerged as the unchallenged second-in-command within the TMC. The issue of his credibility poses a genuine concern for Mamata. Abhishek's efforts to expand TMC beyond West Bengal have been met with disappointment, despite grand announcements about taking on this responsibility. It cannot be denied that the absence of solid groundwork, the corporatisation of TMC, and the emergence of a rift between old and new leaders have placed the party in a precarious situation. Mamata Banerjee's decision to entrust Abhishek with the responsibility of spearheading the panchayat election campaign and revamping the party's image is a strategic move. Despite holding state-wide rallies and roadshows, Abhishek was unable to achieve the same level of success as Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra. His overdependence on the poll management organisation IPAC, which was formed by Prashant Kishore, is considered one of the biggest issues against Abhishek's success.

Should the TMC emerge victorious in the upcoming panchayat election, it would be a pivotal moment for the party's future. The credit for such a triumph would undoubtedly be attributed to Abhishek, potentially paving the way for Mamata Banerjee to officially designate him as the TMC's successor.

Throughout the state, there was a lot of violence during the 2018 panchayat election. Despite repeated assurances by TMC leaders, including Abhishek Banerjee, that there would be no recurrence of violence, the current situation seems to suggest otherwise. The upcoming panchayat election holds immense significance for Mamata Banerjee's political future. If this election proves victorious for her, she will undoubtedly cement her position as the unassailable leader of Bengal, impervious to any missteps by her party. The TMC faces a daunting challenge as the judiciary has ordered multiple investigations against Mamata government and the party by central agencies. Furthermore, numerous TMC leaders are currently incarcerated, while others are under investigation. Meanwhile, the BJP and Left-Congress alliance are gaining political ground, leaving the TMC increasingly cornered. If Mamata manages to overcome these obstacles and emerge victorious, she will undoubtedly become a larger-than-life figure in Indian politics. At this pivotal moment, the triumph of TMC in the panchayat election would mark a significant resurgence for Mamata Banerjee. However, if this does not happen, the road to 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the next state elections won’t be easy.  

The author is a columnist and doctoral research scholar in media & politics. 

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