Karnataka Polls 2023: An Existential Battle For JD(S) This Time Around

File photo of JD(S) leaders HD Deve Gowda (extreme right) and HD Kumaraswamy.

Source : PTI

The relevance of Janata Dal (Secular) as a political entity in Karnataka makes for a curious case. A remnant of the Janata Party and its subsequent avatars, the party’s survival has been made possible by its occasional trysts with power and a Machiavellian HD Deve Gowda’s endurance. Long after it was written off when the Janata Dal split ahead of the 1999 election, the JD(S) has continued to wield influence and determine poll outcomes. Despite being limited to what is known as the Old Mysuru region (with 59 seats), the JD(S) has often punched above its weight in Karnataka politics. 

However, the party might have finally run out of its luck, and a combination of factors might work against the JD(S) to reduce it to a non-entity this time around. 

A Bipolar Election

First and foremost among the factors that may work against JD(S) is the likelihood of this election becoming effectively bipolar, between a resurgent Congress and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In the first-past-the-post system, it is generally difficult for a third force to make its presence felt, but in the case of the JD(S), it had the advantage of its base largely being concentrated in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru belt. 

The survival of the JD(S) in the last two decades had a lot to do with the inability of the BJP to make inroads in the region. The 2019 Lok Sabha election proved to be a watershed, with the Congress and the JD(S) contesting in an alliance, thereby giving an opening to the BJP. That election saw the BJP winning most of the seats in the region at the expense of the JD(S), which could only retain its pocket borough of Haasan, with even HD Deve Gowda losing from Tumkuru, albeit by a small margin. The BJP-backed Independent candidate, Sumalatha Ambareesh, also won from the JD(S) bastion of Mandya, thus giving its prospects a huge boost in the region. 

The saffron party has been since working on maximising its tally from Old Mysuru. There have been many outreach programmes and campaigns designed to this end — apart from development initiatives such as the opening of the Mysuru-Bengaluru ten-lane expressway that promises to reduce the travel time between the two cities by two hours. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also made multiple visits to the region in the last few months. This is not to say that the BJP will sweep the elections here as it did in 2019. The arithmetic of assembly elections is vastly different, and all it might end up doing is to turn the contests triangular — which might be to the advantage of the Congress.

A Resurgent Congress

If the JD(S) won 30 — including the seat won by its ally Bahujan Samaj Party — of its 38 seats in 2018 from the Old Mysuru region, it came mostly at the expense of the Congress, with the BJP very much a third player back then. This time around, however, a Vokkaliga in DK Shiva Kumar hailing from Old Mysuru’s Kanakapura is the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) chief, and he is also among the chief ministerial aspirants of the party. 

Back in 1999, when SM Krishna was the KPCC chief, the Congress had swept the region to come to power with 132 seats, which saw the JD(S) tally come down to 10. Even the other Congress chief ministerial aspirant in Siddaramaiah hails from the region, and unlike in 2018, when he was battling anti-incumbency as CM, things are vastly different now.  

The Muslim Vote

Then there is the Muslim vote factor. The JD(S) has traditionally benefitted from the backing extended by Muslims in its strongholds. Nevertheless, it has been a pattern in recent elections for the Muslims to rally behind the party most likely to defeat the BJP. With the Congress winning the perception battle already, the JD(S) might be on a weak wicket even on this count. 

The appointment of veteran CK Ibrahim as the JD(S) state president ahead of the election was a signal to the community, but such symbolic gestures may not be enough to get the Muslims to gravitate towards the party anymore. This is also due to the presence of Siddaramaiah — who wields influence in the community for his unabashed backing of the Muslim cause — unlike his centrist colleagues in the Congress.

Autumn Of Patriarch Deve Gowda

The dominance of the first family in the JD(S) came about as a result of the purges engineered by Deve Gowda from time to time, which saw former deputy chief ministers such as Siddaramaiah, MP Prakash and a host of others quitting the outfit. Even in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the JD(S) replaced its sitting MP from Mandya with Gowda’s grandson, which was touted to be one of the reasons for Sumalatha Ambareesh’s win from its bastion.

Not all is well within the JD(S) first family anymore, and that only compounds the problems of the party going into the election. Trying hard to shed its image of a family-centric party, JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy vetoed his sister-in-law Bhavani Revanna’s candidature from the Haasan assembly constituency, which required Gowda to step in. 

Though the patriarch brokered truce in the nick of time, Revanna’s son has gone on record to say that they expect Kumaraswamy to keep his end of the deal after the election, the contours of which haven’t been spelt out. With Deve Gowda not being in the pink of his health anymore, which has also restricted his campaign activity, clashes may exacerbate in the future.

JD(S) is all but hoping for the election to throw up a split verdict, in the event of which it could play the kingmaker, but all indications point to a clear mandate. Such an outcome could also spell the end of the road for the JD(S) in Karnataka.

The author is a journalist and columnist based in South India.

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