Nitish Meets Mamata: Will One Seat One Candidate Formula Work? How Realistic Is 'Oppn Unity'
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, along with his deputy Tejashwi Yadav, met Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata Monday to unite opposition forces against the BJP ahead of the 2024 general elections. The socialist leader is trying to emerge as the Jai Prakash Narain of 21st century and has proposed a 'One Seat One Candidate' formula to defeat the BJP.
"We will work together for the benefit of the nation. Those who are ruling the country are only interested in publicity. They are changing the history of the country," the Janata Dal (United) chief said after the meeting. Mamata told reporters, “I have said earlier, too, that I have no objections. I want BJP to become zero. They have become a big hero with the media's support and lies.”
Nitish hopes to revive the 1977 experiment when many top opposition parties merged to form Janata Party and along with CPM, Akali Dal and DMK presented a near 100% united opposition alliance against Indira Gandhi’s Congress. The crackdown on leaders, torture and jail term during Emergency motivated opposition leaders to join hands for “Indira Hatao”.
Nitish and many leaders, including Sharad Pawar, MK Stalin and the Gandhis, feel the recent CBI/ED raids on opposition leaders has created a similar environment in the country, and they need to join hands for what Prime Minister Narendra Modi terms the “Modi Hatao” campaign. In the last few years, the ruling BJP has lost key allies like JD(U), Akali Dal and Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction), which has made the NDA weaker.
4 Contest Scenarios In 2019 Lok Sabha Polls
C: On 71 seats, Congress fought with regional parties
D: On 97 seats, only regional parties and neither BJP nor Congress were in contention
Source: ECI, Author’s Calculations
Many tall opposition leaders often claim that the BJP has received only 37% vote share, and thus 63% is anti-BJP vote, which if all opposition joins forces will fall in their lap. India is a multi-party system. In its entire electoral history, never has even the Congress crossed the 50% vote share mark, its best performance being in 1984 (48.1%).
On most of the Category C seats (71), the vote share received by regional parties was anti-Congress and not anti-BJP. On most of the category D seats (97), the vote share received by regional parties is both anti-Congress and anti-BJP.
When parties form an alliance, while complementary vote blocks do get aligned, antagonistic vote blocks move away. There is seldom a seamless transfer of votes, always resulting in a leakage. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) of SP, BSP, RLD in 2019, one of the most formidable alliances faced by the BJP in recent times, failed because of this reason.
Opposition Unity A Mirage?
On 71 seats, OSOC is not possible, including the 20 seats in Kerala as BJP is not primarily in contention here. In 70% of the 190 BJP-versus-Congress contests, regional parties have limited or no role (MP, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat etc). In 70% of the 185 BJP-versus-regional party contest, Congress has limited or no role — like in Bihar, UP, Odisha, West Bengal etc.
If Congress does not contest in the above 185 seats, it risks permanent transfer of votes to regional forces like AAP, TMC, SP etc. Today, if the Congress has lost vote share at the national level, all of it is not to BJP alone, but also the minority, Dalit and OBC vote to regional parties.
Most regional parties do not have votes outside their home state — for example, TMC and JD(U) got 99% of their votes from Bengal and Bihar, respectively. So, even if they join hands, it is more for optics rather than any tangible benefit. The Congress has to give up a lot here as it doesn't gain much in head-to-head contest with BJP by tying up with regional parties. In most states, it still has some vote share, even if 5% (like in Hindi heartland).
Hence, the feasibility of any such alliance practically is difficult to form.
Too Much Focus On Opposition Unity May Backfire
Research by political scientist Adam Zeigfied reveals that while the Index of Opposition Unity (IOU) increased from 64 per cent in the 2014 general election to 85 per cent in 2019, the BJP's tally increased from 282 to 303 seats. The coming together of ideologically opposite parties just for the sake of 'Modi Hatao' without a common minimum programme may be seen by a section of voters as opportunistic and just for the sake of power.
Further, opposition unity is just half of the work done. The track record of governments formed by a union of regional parties backed by the Congress and the Left Front from outside is very poor. They have all not even lasted one year in office, be it Charan Singh or Chandrasekhar or Deve Gowda or Inder Kumar Gujral. It also takes away the surprise element, one of the reasons associated with the failure of MGB in UP, as it gives time to the BJP to strategise and react.
The opposition parties must focus on providing a roadmap or vision for the future, how they intend to solve the issues which India faces — inflation, unemployment, agri distress etc for example — to gain trust. Else, they risk being seen as an opportunistic alliance.
The author is a SEBI-registered investment advisor.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]
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