Grand alliance in UP seems a nonstarter for now

The other day, Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav declared that his party would not forge an alliance for the early-2017 Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh. He called upon those who wanted to have a deal with the SP, to merge with his party. This is strange, coming from a politician who had on various past occasions been a votary of alliances with like-minded parties and even opponents to shut out “communal elements”. Only a year ago, he was a prominent figure in the quest for a grand coalition for the Bihar State poll, which was to include the SP along with the  Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress. He pulled out at the last moment, though leaving the rest none the worse. There can be many reasons for Mulayam Singh Yadav’s fresh position. The first could well be the bitter taste of the Bihar experience. A grand alliance in Uttar Pradesh was supposed to include the RJD and the JD(U), the very same parties on whom the SP chief had walked out on, claiming that he had been ignored in the process of forging a coalition. It would also have included the Congress, with whom the socialist leader was loath to align so formally. And yet, senior SP leader and Mulayam confidant Shivpal Yadav had been despatched to Delhi to explore the possibility an understanding. The SP supremo’s statement against an alliance came after this visit, so it is possible that Shivpal Yadav must have received a cold response. The second reason could be that the Samajwadi Party, with sharp internal divisions and considerably weakened as a result, would be seen as acknowledging its reduced stature if it were to reach out to other parties for help on the eve of an election. It would not just be disastrous for the party’s image but would also give its potential partners an opportunity to dominate in matters of seat-sharing etc. The fewer seats it contested, the fewer it would win, and the lesser would be the chances of its forming a Government on its own terms. The third is that such a coalition would strengthen the hands of its principal opponents, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Both have already been propagating the theory that the SP is desperate and ready to strike unethical deals merely to hold on to power. There is merit in suggesting that they have been able to instil such a perception among the people of the State, and this is bound to gain traction as election days approach. The fourth reason for Mulayam Singh Yadav’s reluctance is that neither the RJD nor the JD(U) brings anything to the table in the State. Both are non-entities in Uttar Pradesh with an insignificant mass base, but they can exert pressure beyond their influence in case they partner the SP. Beyond the feel-good optics, there is nothing for Mulayam Singh Yadav and his party. In fact, the coalition would offer an opportunity to his partners to ride piggy-back on the SP and strengthen their own positions. The SP can do without more rivals. The fifth has to do with Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, who is vehemently opposed to a coalition and believes that the “good work” his Government has done should suffice to return the party to power. For the record, the Chief Minister has of course said that the final call on alliances would be taken by the SP chief. But Akhilesh has made it known behind closed doors and in the open that he considered the prospect with distaste. His stand also has to do with the fact that both his prominent rivals within the party, Shivpal Singh and Amar Singh, greatly support a grand coalition which could even include the Congress. Although Mulayam Singh Yadav has backed these two leaders in the internal struggle for power, even he realises the  of perils of pushing an alliance down the throat of a Chief Minister who has managed to demonstrate considerable following within both the party and the Government. Mulayam Singh Yadav is both pragmatic and experienced. He has worked in coalition regimes and seen how they have disintegrated. His reluctance today shows he is not confident of a different result this time around, and that he does not want to dirty his hands yet again. Besides, there is the Bihar experiment, where already there are talks of fissures between the ruling parties, the RJD and the JD(U). Those differences have not yet assumed proportions which can break the coalition, but the foundation for that is being laid. At the end of it all though, Mulayam Singh Yadav may still opt for the alliance route, giving in to pressure from Shivpal Yadav and Amar Singh. He may be prepared to swallow the bitter pill if he is brought around to believe that this would be the SP’s best chance in the election. Although probable, it appears unlikely for now. A post-poll understanding, though is a different matter. Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.