Demonetisation: Once things settle, what will Opposition do?

Riding on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity, the BJP-led ruling NDA will bounce back to power with 293-309 seats with 34 per cent of vote share if Lok Sabha elections were held today, ABP News-CSDS survey has predicted.

The Modi Government’s demonetisation decision has aroused the prospects of two political alignments with different timelines. The first is between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party for the early-2017 Assembly election. The second is an arrangement between the Congress and the Trinamool Congress for the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.

The Congress had all but given up after Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav said a few weeks ago that the SP would fight the Assembly election alone and that those who wished to be on its side, should join the party. That had put off the likes of Ajit Singh and his Rashtriya Lok Dal. The RLD quickly aligned with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). Meanwhile, senior Congress leaders brusquely dismissed speculation of an SP-Congress tie-up. Its chief ministerial candidate Sheila Dikshit claimed she was unaware of any such move. Party chief in the State Raj Babbar said yes, no, yes, no. On his part, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav expressed his disapproval of any alliance on the ground that his party would do well in the election on the strength of his Government’s performance. Things appear to have changed post-demonetisation. It may be because both the Congress and the SP are rattled by the public support the decision has provoked. Or they sniff an electoral chance because of the inconvenience the Modi regime’s move has caused to millions of people, especially in rural India. Akhilesh Yadav has, with some mathematical effort, arrived at a figure of 300 seats for the SP and the Congress, if the two parties contest jointly. How will this be achieved? According to media reports, the Congress has demanded 100 seats and the Deputy Chief Minister’s post. It’s unlikely that the SP, despite its eagerness for an alliance, will be so generous. Even if it does, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s party will be left with a little over 300 seats to fight. If both win close to half the number of seats they fight on – and half is a good strike rate – the total figure will stand at 200, which is still below the simple half-way mark needed to form a Government. A little more push, and the two together can touch the magic number. But election results seldom match simple mathematics. The coming together of the Congress and the Samajwadi Party will help consolidate Scheduled Caste votes for Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party as well as the non-Yadav OBC and the upper caste votes for the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Congress’s poor image could disadvantage the SP. Besides, why would the SP want to, through an alliance, revive a near-defunct Congress (a rival) in the State? Indeed, the more the number of strong anti-BJP groups, the better it is for the BJP to gain from split votes. The Congress will be a loser because an alliance with the SP will rob the party of even the few upper caste votes it could have hoped to gain independently. The situation in West Bengal is as unclear, though there is still time for the parties to firm up their strategies. The Trinamool Congress and the Congress have been working in tandem against the Union Government’s demonetisation decision. Amusingly, even the Left Front is collaborating with the Congress on the issue. Thus, we have the unlikely Congress-Left-Trinamool triangle, an amazing piece of geometry. Mamata Banerjee has built the Trinamool Congress as a robust opposition to the Congress and the Left. That’s been the Trinamool Congress’s raison d'être. Her cadres will hardly be pleased if she draws her party closer to the Congress. There is an added problem. The Congress will also be looking to align with the Left in West Bengal, if not formally then through a loose arrangement like in the last Lok Sabha poll. Are Mamata Banerjee and the Left going to work together, with the Congress as a mediator? Highly unlikely. Besides, where is the motivation for the Trinamool to strike a deal with the Congress in West Bengal? Mamata Banerjee’s party is head and shoulders above the dilapidated grand old party. Only recently, it hammered both the Left and the Congress (not to speak of the BJP) all on its own. Then, why does it have to offer concessions which alliances involve, to an emasculated rival that brings nothing but misery on the table?. Demonetisation is hardly the glue that can hold long. Once the adhesive wears thin, more compelling issues will come to the fore. Leadership, for instance. The Congress will not brook any challenge at the national level to Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. Will regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav, who have ambitions of their own, accept thisbottom line?

Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.