How To Limit Global Warming To 1.5 Degrees Celsius? New Study Suggests Possible Ways

Study conducted by team of scientists from University of Technology Sydney provides energy-related carbon budgets for industries, which will help achieve the goal set by the Paris Agreement by 2050

Representational image | Photo: Getty

New Delhi: Representatives of nearly 200 countries are meeting at the ongoing COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, to pledge to strengthen action under the 2015 Paris Agreement, wherein it had been decided to keep the rise in average global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial times. 

A recent study conducted by a team of scientists from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) has provided energy-related carbon budgets for industries, which will help achieve the goal set by the Paris Agreement by 2050. 

The scientists have defined a global carbon budget for the aluminium, chemical, cement, steel and textile and leather industries, power and gas utilities, agriculture, forestry, the aviation and shipping industry, road transport and the real estate and building industry.  

These represent the 12 main industry and service sectors of the world. 

The scientists have also included greenhouse gas emissions in the carbon budgets. 

They hope the global carbon budget will limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, and will help implement the Paris Climate Agreement.

Timely climate action by the energy-intensive industries is necessary to achieve the goal, while reliable and long-term government policies, and sufficient funding by the finance sector are also extremely important, according to the scientists.

The UTS researchers stated in the study that a rapid phase-out of coal and internal combustion engines for cars is the most important measure to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

Other important measures include generation of electricity from renewable energy sources in sufficient amounts for energy-intensive industries and electric vehicles. 

Contributions Of Different Industries To Global Carbon Budget

The research shows that the goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius can be achieved with 67 per cent certainty, if the global carbon budget is 400 gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide (GtCO2) until 2050.

Nineteen gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide will be released by the steel industry, 9 gigatonnes by the cement industry, and 6 gigatonnes by the aluminium industry. These account for 5 per cent, 2.4 per cent, and 1.6 per cent of the entire budget, respectively.

Buildings and road transport will be responsible for the largest carbon budgets.

Due to climatisation (air conditioning and heating) and electricity, buildings are expected to release around 88 gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide until 2050, as per the new budget. 

Road transport will release around 82 gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide.

According to Even Teske, the lead author of the study, a science-based budget for specific industries is important to provide them with directions on how to implement climate targets for all parts of those industries. 

The researchers explained that power utilities have the greatest responsibility, as they will have to provide enough renewable electricity for the energy-intensive chemical, steel, cement and aluminum industries, and for electric vehicles.

The One Earth Climate Model (OECM), developed by the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) at UTS, has been used to formulate the industry-specific emission budgets.

The budgets are expected to help countries achieve 1.5 degrees Celsius compatible climate and energy pathways.
The Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance, an international group of 60 institutional investors, is supporting further development of the OECM, in order to send a strong signal to the ongoing COP26 negotiations. The alliance is also applying the latest findings by the UTS team in order to achieve the target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Recommendations To Limit Global Warming To 1.5 Degrees Celsius

• Investments in new oil, coal and gas projects must be stopped in order to achieve the Paris Agreement goal.
• Countries affiliated to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) must ensure a coal phaseout by 2030. OECD, based in Paris, is an international organisation of 36 countries committed to democracy and the market economy.
• Between 2030 and 2040, all regions should phase out coal.
• By 2030, companies should stop manufacturing passenger cars with oil-fuelled internal combustion engines. 
• Governments should provide detailed transition plans to net zero.
• Investments must be settled and implemented carefully. 
• Portfolios must be decarbonised in a way such that they are in line with '1.5 degrees Celsius no or limited overshoot', which means the global temperature must not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, and even if it does go beyond the threshold value, the increase should be minimal.  Decarbonisation describes the process of reducing and removing the greenhouse gas emissions produced as a by-product of the functioning of an economy. Decarbonising a portfolio refers to the process of transitioning a portfolio to align with a low-carbon future.
• Companies should disclose climate mitigation strategies and their implementation.
• There must be transparency on engagement activities as well as investments in renewable energies and climate solutions.