Weather Forecast For Mars? Yes, Otherworldly Predictions Are Possible, New Study Says How

A study by Yale researchers explains how otherworldly forecasts can be made using Earth's annular modes, and how they can be applied to make predictions of dust activity on Mars

Mars, the fourth planet of solar system | File Image

New Delhi: What do we know about weather and atmosphere? A lot, you would say. But that knowledge, unfortunately, is limited to Earth, our own planet. There is a vast universe, or universes, out there and humankind knows little about the weather on other planets and moons, which it is now aspiring to access like never before.

Astronauts are all ready for the crewed Moon mission planned for 2024. Mars will be next. An accurate weather forecast for these places will be necessary for the crews that plan to land there in the future, new research says.

Scientists have now shown that it is possible to make weather forecasts for other worlds. In a study on Mars and Saturn’s largest moon, Titan, they have laid the foundation for future weather forecasts.

The study conducted by researchers from Yale University was recently published in the Nature Astronomy journal.

Why Otherworldly Forecasts Are Important 

Dust storms are common on Mars. But they sometimes turn very dangerous and even veil the planet. These storms are a big threat to the exploration of the planet attempted by scientists from Earth. One such storm in 2018 had destroyed NASA's Opportunity rover after its solar panels were covered by dust.

Nighttime snowfall is another weather phenomenon observed on the Red Planet, as detected by the Phoenix Mars Lander in 2009.

Scientists have now started to look at and understand the weather on Mars, which has some similarities with Earth. Titan, also part of the Yale researchers’ study, too has some conditions similar to Earth, which make it easier for the scientists to do the weather forecast.

"I believe the first accurate forecasts of perhaps a few Mars days may be only a decade away," Yale researcher J. Michael Battalio, the lead author of the study, said in a statement, as reported by CNN.  

He added: "It is just a matter of combining better observational datasets with sufficiently refined numerical models. But until then, we can rely upon connections between the climate and weather to help anticipate dust storms."

According to Battalio, dust storms on Mars tend to repeat about every 20 days.

“This matches at about 20 days or 25 days, a phenomenon that happens in the atmosphere of Earth called the Annular Mode.” 

Battalio said this could help NASA and others when they send robots or even people to Mars.

What Is Annular Mode?

The researchers examined annular mode, related to the Earth’s jet stream, and tried to find it in the weather patterns on Mars and Titan. 

The annular modes are patterns of atmospheric flow, which are not related to the cycle of seasons. On Earth, in the middle latitudes, the regularity of storm systems are associated with annular modes.

In the study, the scientists observed that annular modes are prominent on Mars and Titan, too. Using existing data on Mars, they observed that dust storms in the Southern Hemisphere of Mars occur with a regularity similar to that of Earth's eddies.

For Titan, they used a global climate model called the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), and found that annular modes are also prominent in their Titan simulations.

How Will These Predictions Be Made?

The study explains how otherworldly forecasts can be made using Earth's annular modes, and how they can be applied to make predictions of dust activity on Mars.

According to the researchers, annular variability is similar in different planets, indicating they are ubiquitous across planetary atmospheres. The annular modes in the zonal wind of Mars are similar to those on Earth.

On Earth, much of the internal variability of the atmosphere can be explained with the help of annular modes. The internal dynamics of the atmosphere give rise to these modes. Weekly to monthly variability of jet streams (narrow bands of strong wind in the upper atmospheric level) and precipitation can be determined with the help of these modes. This makes them useful in making predictions of weather patterns.

On Mars, the Acidalia, Arcadia and Utopia Plantae regions in the northern hemisphere, and the nearby areas of Argyre and Hellas Basins in the southern hemisphere, exhibit increased storm activity. Most of the dust storms travel to the southern hemisphere. This is indicative of the predictive abilities of annular modes for dust storms. These predictions are essential because they will help ensure the safety of future crewed missions to Mars.

Titan's annular modes have similarities as well as differences with those of Earth and Mars. One of the preferred locations for eddy activity on Titan is in the northern hemisphere. However, the predictive powers of Titan's model remain to be explored, the study points out.

The scientists suggest that more research can be conducted on annular modes in other planets. Annularity can be seen in the cold temperature regions of Venus, and this can be compared to Earth's annular modes associated with low temperatures. Also, considering the importance of eddies in causing Jupiter's jets, annular variability could be exhibited in gas and ice giants as well.

All these possibilities open the doors to comparative planetology and climatology, and to the characterisation of extrasolar atmospheres, the scientists claim.