Eurasian Precipitation Was Below Normal This Year. Know How It Can Favour Stronger Monsoon In India

'Below normal' Eurasian precipitation favours a stronger monsoon for India, and can offset the negative effects of El Niño. An expert explains to ABP Live the scientific reasons behind this.

Despite the triple-dip La Niña effect, Eurasian precipitation has been slightly below normal of late. According to experts, it is likely to favour a stronger monsoon in India and may offset the El Niño impact.

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India’s monsoon is unpredictable this year due to various factors which can offset each other’s effects. These include snowfall accumulation over Eurasia, a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, and a ‘below-normal’ Eurasian precipitation. All these factors can offset the effects of El Niño, which is likely to impact India from July 2023. El Niño refers to the weakening of trade winds, and La Niña is the periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, which causes warm water to be pushed toward Asia. 

The most recent La Niña event lasted till February 2023, and was a “triple-dip La Niña”, because it occurred continuously for three years. 

Why ‘below normal’ Eurasian precipitation may favour a stronger monsoon in India

Since trade winds become stronger than usual during La Niña years, Eurasia usually receives higher rainfall when the phenomenon occurs.

However, despite the triple-dip La Niña effect, Eurasian precipitation has been slightly below normal of late. According to experts, it is likely to favour a stronger monsoon in India and may offset the El Niño impact.

This is because the Eurasian region experiencing below-normal precipitation creates a high-pressure system over the region, which can strengthen monsoon winds over India. 

“When the Eurasian region experiences below-normal precipitation, it creates a high-pressure system over the region. This high-pressure system can strengthen the monsoon winds over India, which can result in increased rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. This increased rainfall can help offset the negative impact of El Niño, which usually brings drier-than-normal conditions to India,” Dr Anjal Prakash, Research Director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business and IPCC Author, told ABP Live.

He concluded that less rainfall in the Eurasian region can create favourable atmospheric conditions, leading to a stronger monsoon in India, and this stronger monsoon can help to compensate for any negative impact of El Niño on the monsoon season by bringing more rainfall to India.