Water Scarcity, Sea Level Rise, Intensified Floods, Droughts, Heat Waves – Climate Threats For India

Intensified extreme weather events, water scarcity, sea level rise, increased cyclonic activity, and landslides are some of the impacts of climate change India is likely to witness by the next decade.

Climate Change Challenges For India: Due to the shift in weather patterns during the last two decades in India, sea levels have risen, glaciers are melting at an increasing rate, and monsoon has become varied, with long dry spells or incessant rain that leads to floods.

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Climate change is proving its presence worldwide through increased extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, landslides, excessive rain, heat waves, and sea level rise. To say that “climate change is real” would be an understatement, and denying the phenomenon would only lead to catastrophic occurrences. In the last two decades, India witnessed a shift in its climate patterns in the form of changes during summer, monsoon, and winter seasons. The country experienced unprecedented heat waves in recent decades. 

In 2023, India received unseasonal rainfall in the pre-monsoon period. El Niño conditions emerged in May.  In early July, excess rainfall occurred in Delhi and the National Capital Region, causing Yamuna to breach the 1978 level that resulted in catastrophic floods. Surprisingly, the eastern parts of the country received less rainfall than other regions this year, which is unusual because eastern and northeastern states are known to receive ample rainfall in monsoon. July 2023 was found to be the hottest month in over 1,20,000 years. The heat island effect has become more pronounced in urban areas. Also, agriculture is impacted both in the long term and short term, due to climate change.

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One of the countries most exposed and vulnerable to heat globally, India has witnessed a significant increase in three-day concurrent hot days and hot night events from 1951 to 2016. 

Heat waves in India are projected to come earlier, stay longer, and become more frequent, and urban heat island effects will exacerbate these heat impacts, according to the report on the first assessment of heat action plans in India released earlier this year. 

The assessment was performed by the Centre for Policy Research, an independent institution dedicated to conducting research on issues impacting life in India. 

According to the report, the risks of extreme heat are experienced disproportionately. For instance, due to personal risk factors such as age, poor ventilation, and cooled housing, occupational risk factors such as working outdoors, and societal risk factors such as urban planning, some workers are disproportionately affected by the impacts of extreme heat. The negative impacts on productivity and health can be reduced through well-designed and effectively implemented heat action plans. 

Increased heat in India is resulting in increased heat-related deaths, heat stress, unbearable working conditions, and greater spread of vector-borne diseases. 

Heat-related risks directly impact health, mortality and labour productivity. 

Climate Change Calamities Likely To Occur In India By Next Decade

Despite innumerable signs, several people choose to remain oblivious of climate change, and do not wish to accept that if timely action is not taken, it will reach a point of no return. As India celebrates its 77th year of independence, ABP Live spoke to Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Lead IPCC Author; Prof Anamika Barua, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences,IIT Guwahati, and Dr Anjal Prakash, Clinical Associate Professor (Research) and Research Director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, and asked them what climate threats lie ahead for India. 

More frequent and severe extreme weather events, water scarcity, sea level rise, increased cyclonic activity, and landslides are some of the impacts of climate change India is likely to witness by the next decade, the experts said. If appropriate mitigation strategies are not adopted, the damage may be irreversible. 

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) mentions that anthropogenic activities will exacerbate climate change. What is even more serious is the fact that climate change will disproportionately affect people, and vulnerable communities are the ones who will suffer the greatest losses. 

“Predicting the exact impact of climate change over the next 10 years is challenging due to the complexity of the Earth's climate system and the wide range of factors involved. But one should refer to the IPCC AR 6 report, released in 2022, which clearly explains that anthropogenic climate change will impact all sections. Some indications are extreme events such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and sea level rise, among others. The intensity and frequency of these events will increase and may lead to irreversible damage. Unfortunately, the impact will be disproportionate, affecting mostly vulnerable communities worldwide. This indicates that the developing world will most feel the impact, so we must prepare well,” Dr Barua said. 

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Due to the shift in weather patterns during the last two decades in India, sea levels have risen, glaciers are melting at an increasing rate, and monsoon has become varied, with long dry spells or incessant rain that leads to floods. Also, Arabian sea cyclones have increased. The reason why these extreme weather events occurred is the rise in global temperatures by one degree Celsius due to carbon emissions. 

“During the last two decades, we saw a clear climate shift in the weather patterns over India, resulting in rising sea level, cyclones, floods, landslides, glacier melt, heatwaves (on land and in the ocean), and droughts. Monsoon rainfall patterns have changed, from rains spread moderately through the season to long dry periods and heavy rainfall events that cause floods. Arabian Sea cyclones have increased by 50 percent, while their lifespan has increased by 80 percent. The steadfast rise in these severe weather extremes is in response to the 1°C rise in global temperatures due to historical carbon emissions,” Dr Mathew Koll explained.

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It is an unnerving fact that the plans promised or implemented by nations worldwide are inadequate to prevent a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2040, Dr Mathew Koll said. “In the next two decades, all these events are projected to intensify further. This is because the commitments from global nations are insufficient to keep the temperature rise from hitting 1.5°C by 2040 and 2°C between 2040–2060.”

One of the areas at the highest risk of climate change calamities are coastal regions. These devastating repercussions can displace communities such as fishermen who live in coastal areas, and affect their livelihoods. 

“Climate change's impact on India in the coming years could be profound. Projections suggest increasing temperatures, erratic rainfall, and more frequent extreme weather events. Coastal regions are at risk due to rising sea levels, potentially displacing communities. Water scarcity may intensify due to changing precipitation patterns. Heatwaves and droughts could become more severe, impacting agriculture and water resources. While specific climate calamities in the next 10 years are hard to predict precisely, increased cyclonic activity, flooding, and landslides are potential threats,” Dr Prakash said.

Apart from mitigation measures, adaptive strategies must be enforced, and resilient infrastructure developed to ensure that India is prepared for potential climate change calamities, and can minimise risks of catastrophic impacts.