Assam Election Results: BJP Likely To Retain Power But Will Congress Make Inroads? Here's 2016 Result Vs 2021 Exit Poll

The Congress formed a “Grand Alliance” with five parties in Assam but the exit polls data show the coalition of opposition parties will not be able to dislodge the incumbent BJP-led NDA in the state.

(File Photo)

Assam Election 2021: Polling for three-phase assembly polls in Assam concluded on April 6 and all eyes are now set on the results for the 126-member assembly to be declared on Sunday.

Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to secure a second term in office in a closely fought contest.

The Congress formed a “Grand Alliance” with five parties in Assam but the exit polls data show the coalition of opposition parties will not be able to dislodge the incumbent BJP-led NDA in the state.

Assam recorded an average voter turnout of 82.04 percent in the three phase elections held on March 27, April 1 and April 6.

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2016 Results Vs ABP C-Voter Exit Poll Projection

ABP News along with C-Voter conducted an Exit Poll to know the voters’ mood in Assam. As per the survey, the NDA’s vote share is expected to increase by only one percent this time. The NDA, which received 41.9 percent vote share in the 2016 assembly polls, is expected to get 42.9 percent of the vote share this time.

The Congress-led UPA on the other hand looks to yet again establish its political foothold in the state. The survey suggests the UPA bagging around 48.8 percent vote share as opposed to a mere 31 percent vote share in the last elections.

The others, however fail to make a mark this time as the survey suggests they would be receiving just 8.3 percent vote share this time, which is a decline of 18.8 percent compared to the last elections when they bagged 27.1 percent vote share.

Assam	Party Alliance: Votes
Alliance Votes: Assam	2016 Results	2021 Projection	Swing
NDA	41.9	42.9	1
UPA	31	48.8	17.8
Others	27.1	8.3	-18.8
Total	100	100	0

Seat Range

According to the survey conducted by C-Voter, the BJP-led NDA is expected to get around 65 seats in the 126-member assembly. The NDA bagged 74 seats in the last elections.

The UPA seems to be making significant inroads this time as the survey suggests 59 seats in its kitty, which is 20 seats more than won in 2016.

From the NDA, the BJP contested 92 seats, United People’s Party Liberal fielded its candidates on eight seats and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) contested 26 seats.

On the other hand, the Congress entered the electoral contest from 94 seats, the AIUDF contested on 14 seats, Bodoland People’s Front fielded its candidates on 12 seats and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) fielded just two candidates.

Assam	Party Alliance: Seats
Alliance Seats: Assam	2016 Results	2021 Projection ( Mean Value of range)	Change
NDA	74	65	-9
UPA	39	59	20
Others	13	2	-11
Total	126	126	0

The majority mark in Assam is 64 seats.

[The present opinion poll / survey was conducted by C Voter Services Pvt. Ltd. The methodology used is Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews [CATI] for Opinion Polls and Face to face methodology for Exit Poll and the sample size for the same is 2,30,500 (sum of all opinion and exit polls in all states) & the survey was carried out during the period January 1, 2021, until the end of elections in the five states. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of +/-3% at Macro level and +/-5% at Micro Level and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria / aspects and was broadly based upon answers provided by the respondents during the interviews.]