ABP News-CSDS Survey: Modi set to return to power in 2019, UPA consolidates

NDA is likely to emerge victorious on 274 of the 543 seats. The opposition of Congress-led UPA may secure 164 seats while other parties may win 105 seats.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi. PTI Photo

New Delhi: The Narendra Modi-led NDA may cross the halfway mark required to form the government in the Centre but its seat-tally is likely to see a major decline, if Lok Sabha elections were to be held today. According to the Mood of The Nation Survey conducted by ABP News-CSDS, the NDA is likely to get 274 seats, Congress-led UPA may secure 164 seats while other players are slated to win 105 seats, if general elections are called today. The NDA has fair probability to cross the magic figure of 272 while dealing with the fairly tough anti-incumbency sentiments.

#देशकामूड: Narendra Modi-led NDA is likely to get 274 seats if Lok Sabha elections were to be held today. Congress-led UPA may secure 164 seats while other parties may win 105 seats. Watch: https://t.co/JQJlKZeiOk pic.twitter.com/DG2ItGyUdd

— ABP News (@abpnewstv) May 24, 2018

Findings of the Mood of The Nation survey The NDA may be able to hold on to governance after the 2019 elections but with a bruised BJP at the battle-front. As per the survey conducted ahead of the Lok Sabha elections to find out the electoral preferences of people, NDA is likely to emerge victorious on 274 of the 543 seats. The opposition of Congress-led UPA may secure 164 seats while other parties may win 105 seats. The seat-tally of the NDA is likely to witness steep fall from 336 in 2014 to 274 this time. However, a tough path lies ahead of the NDA to tread carefully as the anti-incumbency sentiments have already set in against it. The Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey found 47 per cent of the total respondents to be of the opinion that the Modi government does not merit another opportunity to govern India after the 2019 Lok Sabha election. These numbers for the NDA are about as bad as those that had been recorded for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in July 2013, nine months before the 2014 national elections. Back then 39% had been against giving the UPA another chance. Unemployment, GST, Low income level, rising atrocities against the dalits and minorities are some of the areas that tend to pull back its steps. While the high disapproval of the Modi government among minorities, particularly Muslims, comes as no surprise given the innumerable incidents of violence and intimidation that have taken place against them during the last four years, the survey rather unexpectedly also found a sizeable section of voters from the majority Hindu community to be also carrying an anti-government sentiment. Economic anxieties of the voters have not been allayed in the last five months, if anything they have increased in several areas. Unemployment continues to be the main concern for most voters. Disappointed with the government indifference to rising atrocities against them and angry with the Supreme Court mandated changes to the SC-ST Act, a sizeable section of the community seems to have turned its back on the BJP. Only 22% of the Dalits were found to be supporting the BJP in the current survey. Dissatisfaction with the overall performance of the Modi government also continues to rise across the country. It has gone up from 27% in May 2017 to 40% in January 2018 to 47% now, indicating a 20-point increase in dissatisfaction levels in just one year. Apart from that, the popularity level of Prime Minister Modi has gone down, while that of Rahul Gandhi has shot up. As of today, Modi is the spontaneous PM preference of 34 per cent of voters and Rahul of 24 per cent. This means that nationally the gap between Modi and Rahul which was 17 percentage points in January 2018 is now down to just 10 points.