ABP-CVoter Exit Poll: Bihar Set For A Cliffhanger As NDA Likely To Shrink, Tejashwi & MGB Back In Spotlight

ABP-CVoter Exit Poll: ABP CVoter has released the results for the Bihar Exit Poll, and RJD likely to emerge as the single largest party.

Bihar Exit Poll: Voting for the 3 phases of the Bihar election has concluded for 243 seats and the counting of votes will be done on 10th November. ABP-CVoter has released the figures of Exit Poll and it seems that Bihar is set for a cliffhanger. According to the survey conducted by the ABP-CVoter till 5 pm on 7th November, NDA is likely to bag 104-128 seats, while Mahagathbandhan is likely to get 108-131. Any of the alliances can cross the magic number of 122 seats. The most interesting outcome in the exit poll is that Rashtriya Janata Dal is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Bihar after the results. Following is the exit Poll break up: Nitish+ 104-128 seats Lalu+ 108-131 seats Paswan - 1-3 seats Others 4-8 ABP CVoter also released the party-wise breakup which suggests that JD(U) is left behind and RJD is likely to bag the highest number of seats.

NDA	Seats	UPA	Seats
JDU	38-46	RJD	81-89
BJP	66-74	CONG	21-29
VIP	0-4	LEFT	6-13
HAM	0-4

Looking at the vote percentage, it is interesting to note that NDA is just 2% ahead of the Mahagathbandhan as Nitish Kumar is likely to get 37.7% while Tejashwi Yadav leading the Mahagathbanhan can et 36.3%. Chirag Paswan or LJP fails to make a mark and may not affect the results much. If we see the region-wise data, RJD again leads with more seats while JD(U) is likely to shrink. Seemanchal (24 seats) The data in Seemanchal suggests a tight fight between NDA and UPA in the Muslim dominated region with Nitish Kumar to get just 8-12 seats while Mahagathbandhan to bag 12-15 seats.

Nitish+	8-12
Lalu+	12-15
Paswan	0-1
Others	0

A large number of seats in the Kosi and Seemanchal belt went to polls in the last leg of the Bihar assembly election on November 7, and the caste arithmetic seems to dominate here as the Yadav voters have tipped the scale giving an edge to Tejashwi Yadav. Ang Pradesh ( 27 seats) Ang Pradesh having 7 districts comprising of 27 seats is also witnessing a neck-and-neck fight. Chirag Pawan is the Member of Parliament from the Ang Pradesh region but LJP fails to even open its account here. Ang Pradesh, though had many areas that fall under the Lok Janshakti Party's influence and even come under Chirag's Lok Sabha seat Jamui. Pappu Yadav's Party or Owaii factor is not likely to make an impact on the numbers in this region as RJD likely to lead. Also Read|ABP-C Voter Exit Poll: Chirag Paswan's LJP Fails To Impress As Third Front As Bihar Heads For Hung Assembly

Nitish+	10-14
Lalu+	13-17
Paswan	0-0
Others+	0-1

After Seemanchal and Ang Pradesh, RJD seems to lead the Bihar results in Mithilanchal while Nitish Kumar's wave seems to slow down. Mithilanchal (50 seats) Out of the total 78 seats which went to polls in the third phase of Bihar, 65 seats which fall in the Mithilanchal, Champaran, Kosi, and Seemanchal belt have a sizeable Yadav population with Madhepura assembly seat, known as Gopeland (land of Yadavs) accounting for around 40% of that particular caste group. The cast factor and the youth relying on Tejashwi Yadav's promise of 10 lakh jobs seems to have overtaken this region helping RJD emerge as the single largest party.

Nitish+	21-25
Lalu+	25-28
Paswan	0-2
Others	0-0

The prominent Yadav faces who contested in the third phase of the Bihar elections held on 7th November,  include the daughter of veteran socialist leader Sharad Yadav, Suhasini from Bihariganj (contesting on a Congress ticket), Nikhil Mandal, (grandson of the former chief minister and chairman of Mandal Commission recommendations report on job reservations, BP Mandal), contesting from Madhepura seat on JD(U) ticket and two ministers in the Nitish Kumar government, Narendra Narayan Yadav (Alamnagar) and Bijendra Prasa Yadav (Supaul). While Nitish Kumar addressed a rally in Bihariganj which is friend turned foe Sharad Yadav's daughter's constituency but the Bihar CM failed to attract a decent crowd which hinted at low support for JD(U) in this region. Magadh Bhojpur (69 seats) If we take a glance at the numbers of the Magadh Bhojpur region which went to polls during the first phase of elections, Mahagathbandhan seems to dominate again while this could have been the region for Nitish Kumar and JD(U) to score high. The southwestern districts in the Magadh Bhojpur regions also have a history of atrocities against Dalits by privileged castes. This region also witnessed violence between the Ranvir Sena and ultraleft outfits.

The concentration of Dalits is comparatively high in this region compared to other parts of the state and the proportion of Muslims is comparatively lower. The NDA aimed to concentrate privileged caste votes and hoped that CM Nitish Kumar and Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha would ensure some Mahadalit support for it.

The Mahagathbandhan this time includes the Left Parties, of which the CPI-ML is the strongest. It is particularly influential in this region and has some support among Mahadalits.

Nitish+	28-36
Lalu+	31-38
Paswan	0-0
Others	3-3

So, while the NDA may use Tejashwi's "Babusaheb" remark to consolidate Upper Castes, the Mahagathbandhan's calculations here are largely based on the support of Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits. North Bihar (73)

Nitish+	37-41
Lalu+	29-33
Paswan	0-0
Others	02-04

The only region in which the Nitish Kumar led NDA is ahead of the Mahagathbandhan is the North Bihar which comprises 73 seats. The major regions of North Bihar went to polls in the third phase of the elections which witnessed 55% of voter turnout and the major voters were women who have been clearly supporting Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Third front parties like Chirag Paswan's LJP, Owaisi's AIMIM, and Upendra Kushwaha's RLSP have failed to impress in every region and RJD has an edge which hints towards a new CM for Bihar. The results of the Bihar elections 2020 will be declared on 10th November.