Turkey Elections: Erdogan Walks A Tightrope, Joint Oppn Rides On Solid Kurdish Support. All You Want To Know

According to opinion polls, the votes of Turkey’s Kurdish minority will be a decisive factor as they are expected to support presidential contender Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to face the biggest test in his two-decade rule as the country gears up for the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14.

With Turkey reeling under an economic crisis and still picking up the pieces from the devastating February earthquakes, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to face the biggest test in his two-decade rule as the country gears up for the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14.

According to opinion polls, the votes of Turkey’s Kurdish minority, which make up about 18 percent of the population of 85 million, will be a decisive factor as they are expected to support presidential contender Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Kilicdaroglu, the leader of main opposition People’s Republican Party (CHP) and the joint candidate of the six-party National Alliance, is in a tight race with incumbent president Erdogan. Extending their tacit support for Kilicdaroglu and to avoid splintering the opposition vote, the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) announced last month that they would not field any candidate in the upcoming polls.

The Presidential Candidates

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: The 69-year-old leader, who has been leading Turkey for 20 years, faces one of the toughest challenges in his political career. 

A prime minister from 2003 and then a directly elected president since 2014, Erdogan, who survived a coup attempt in 2016, needs to overcome the twin hurdles of a crippling economic crisis and the aftermath of one of the most debilitating earthquakes in the history of the nation. 

Although rampant inflation and cost-of-living crisis have hit the poll ratings of the incumbent leader hard, Erdogan is known to be a seasoned winner and not among the ones to give up power easily.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu: Turkey’s often divided opposition parties have unitedly chosen a single candidate, 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Republican People's Party, to dash the hopes of President Erdogan of extending his term to a third decade. 

Although he was never considered the opposition’s natural leader, Kilicdaroglu is expected to garner the major chunk of the Kurdish votes, one of the critical factors that could help him stake claim to the coveted post.

“No party that does not receive the support of Kurdish voters has ever come to power. Kurds will be decisive in this election as well,” Financial Times quoted Selahattin Demirtas, the imprisoned former HDP leader, as saying.

Kilicdaroglu, who is credited with moderating the CHP’s approach to the Kurds, stands in stark contrast with Erdogan, whose Justice and Development Party (AKP) has witnessed a dwindling support among the ethnic minority, since peace talks to resolve the Kurdish issue failed in 2015 and the president allied with Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in his pursuit of what is seen as a one-man regime.

Muharrem Ince: This 58-year-old former physics teacher, another presidential candidate, ran for the post in 2018 for CHP, but lost to Erdogan, despite bagging 30 percent of the votes.

After the poll drubbing, Ince resigned from CHP, citing a lack of internal democracy, and founded his own party, the "Homeland Party". 

Although his candidacy has evoked severe criticism and negotiations with Kilicdaroglu failed to deter him from running for the presidency, Ince promises to boost the rule of law and press freedom, which he expects will also strengthen the Turkish economy and tourist sector.

Sinan Ogan: The 55-year-old former academician, who forayed into politics in 2011 with the far-right MHP, has the feeblest chance of winning the presidential race.

In 2015, Ogan launched an unsuccessful attempt for MHP leadership, but was expelled from the party over his behaviour having “seriously damaged the unity of the party.” The leader rejoined after a court case, but was ousted yet again in 2017, as MHP accused him of "severe indiscipline toward the party chairman."

A staunch nationalist, Sinan Ogan declared his presidency in March, without joining or forming another party. 

Why Erdogan Faces A Tough Race In May Election

The government response to the devastating February 6 earthquake, coupled with 24-year high inflation and economic crisis, pose a fresh challenge to incumbent president Erdogan as he seeks to extend his two-decade rule and maintain his almost unbridled power over Turkish politics.

For a combative leader as Erdogan, who has a record of modernising and developing Turkey, the loss of thousands of lives in the deadly earthquake is being seen as a major threat, as Turkey is set to witness one of the most polarising elections in the history of the post-Ottoman republic.

The situation in Turkey still remains dire, with the earthquake striking a death blow to the already collapsing economy that warranted immediate repair.

The earthquake, leaving a harrowing death toll and widespread destruction in its wake, has resulted in a dip in Erdogan’s popularity, with an emboldened Opposition accusing him of failing to prepare for a disaster in a country prone to earthquakes.

Apart from a backlash over the government’s handling of the earthquake aftermath, Turkey has also been grappling with one of the worst economic crises, with Turkish Lira having fallen to a record low of nearly 19 to the US dollar. 

According to World Bank data, Turkey’s broad money supply increased by about three and a half times between 2014 and 2020 while the supply in the US rose by around 50% during the same period causing the value of Turkish Lira to drop against the dollar.

Adding to these issues are Erdogan’s unorthodox fiscal policies, forcing central banks to cut interest rates despite skyrocketing inflation. Businesses are worst-hit, with the people struggling to pay mortgages and accusing Erdogan of having failed to maintain a proper fiscal health.

Kurdish Votes A Decisive Factor

The Pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party could play a crucial role, strong enough to just about tip the balance to unseat the president, according to reports. With the opinion polls showing a finely struck balance between Erdogan’s ruling alliance and the Opposition, HDP could emerge as the kingmaker that could tilt the electoral fortunes either way.

“We are facing a turning point that will shape the future of Turkey and (its) society. To fulfil our historical responsibility against the one-man rule, we will not field a presidential candidate in (the) May 14 elections,” the HDP said in a statement, a move that could give Erdogan’s rivals an edge.

“Step by step, Turkey has moved towards an authoritarian regime. If Erdogan wins this election, Turkey will have transitioned to a new kind of dictatorship. Erdogan has managed to stay in power by dividing society…The opposition’s unity as it goes to the polls is not only important to eliminate this polarisation but to win the election,” FT quoted former HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas as saying.

Although HDP hasn’t formally declared whether they would put their weight behind Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, political analysts see the supporters of the pro-Kurdish party as a crucial swing vote that can throw the incumbent leader a lifeline to cling on to the presidential chair. 

Is Oppn Chink In Armour Their Candidate Himself?

Although Turkey is set to witness a nip-and-tuck contest between president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party and secularist six-party National Alliance’s candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, all eligible parties under various alliances are reshuffling to boost support and expand their reach in the run-up to the country’s landmark election.

Severely criticised for his managing of relief efforts after the deadly earthquake, taking an autocratic approach for dealing with the economic fallout, President Erdogan has also been widely praised for his handling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, playing a pivotal role as a mediator, and there is still a significant section of people that believe Erdogan is the best person to lead Turkey.

Moreover, the “Table of Six”, as the Opposition is called, is an awkward coalition of six parties with the common pledge to undo Erdogan’s one-man rule and restore parliamentary system. However, the Opposition’s biggest drawback could be their candidate himself. 

The fact that Kilicdaroglu earlier lost to Erdogan in elections more than once has a low rating in conservative sections of the society, and is not considered a “young, dynamic and charismatic” leader, could possibly reverse the slide in Erdogan’s favour and set him up with a chance to secure a come-from-behind win.