Can Congress Take Advantage Of Anti-Incumbency Against BJP In Haryana Elections? A SWOT Analysis
Despite the last few electoral losses, Congress's chances in the upcoming Haryana elections look promising due to its strong organisational structure and the crumbling of its opponents.
The Congress, which had been in power for a long time in Haryana since the first election in 1966, lost the last two elections. While in the 2014 Haryana elections, it lost 25 seats and managed to bag only 15, in 2019 it managed to better its tally with 31 seats. But it still fell way short of the magic figure of 46 in the 90-member assembly.
In the 2024 Haryana polls, the Congress's chances are looking good. The party has managed to hold onto its flock and keep attrition to a bare minimum. Here is a breakdown of the party's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) that you need to know before Haryana goes to vote.
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Strengths Of The Congress
The Congress is backed by big names like two-time Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Vinesh Phogat, Randeep Singh Surjewala, Brijendra Singh, who have campaigned extensively in Haryana.
The Congress's move to consolidate Jat, Dalit, and Muslim votes will bolster its chances.
The biggest strength for the party is its organisational strength in Haryana, which kept its leaders together, with very few exits.
The Congress performed well in the Lok Sabha polls this year, winning 5 seats and gaining nearly 19% of the voteshare since the 2019 elections. Now, it needs to keep the momentum going.
Weaknesses That Could Hurt Congress In Haryana Elections
The most prominent weakness of the Congress is factionalism. Bhupinder Singh Hooda's 'Cold War' with incumbent Sirsa MLA Kumari Selja over the distribution of tickets is a chink in the Congress's armour.
Congress's non-fulfilment of its poll promises when it was in power has been raked up by the BJP several times. The BJP also alleged that the Congress's promise of providing Rs 2,000 to women in the state is fake since it "did not fulfil a similar promise in Himachal Pradesh".
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Opportunities That Congress Can Take Advantage Of
The anti-incumbency against the BJP is sure to help the Congress.
The breakdown of the BJP-JJP alliance and the exodus of MLAs and other heavyweight leaders from BJP and JJP are what Congress can cash on.
The division of Jat and Dalit votes between the JJP-ASP and INLD-BSP alliances is a big opportunity for the Congress.
Threats To The Congress
The Congress's campaign seemed to slow down towards the fag end. It remains to be seen what kind of advantage the BJP took of it.
While the JJP-ASP and INLD-BSP alliances contesting against each other would definitely split the Jat and Dalit votes, it is also a threat to the Congress since the situation has the potential to wean away its own vote base from the communities.
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