Exit Polls vs Reality: How Accurate Were Bihar 2020 Predictions?
Before this year’s predictions roll in, here’s a look back at how the exit polls fared in 2020 - and how the actual results compared.
Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 are building up to a high-stakes political battle, with JD(U)-led NDA and RJD-led Mahagathbandhan once again going head-to-head for control of the state.
All eyes are on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who faces the challenge of retaining his position amid a renewed push from Tejashwi Yadav, the youthful leader determined to propel the RJD back to power.
As the second phase of voting wraps up on November 11, exit polls for Bihar Elections 2025 will be released, offering the first indication of voter sentiment.
The final outcome, however, will be revealed only when the votes are counted on November 14. Before this year’s predictions roll in, here’s a look back at how the exit polls fared in 2020 - and how the actual results compared.
What Exit Polls Predicted in 2020
Ahead of the 2020 elections, several agencies projected a sweeping victory for the Mahagathbandhan led by the RJD.
India Today/Aaj Tak-Axis My India estimated a big lead for the alliance, forecasting 139-161 seats, while giving 68–91 seats to the NDA and 3–5 to others, including the LJP.
News18–Today’s Chanakya predicted a landslide for the Mahagathbandhan with 180 seats, leaving the NDA at 55, and 8 for others.
P-Marq (Politique Marquer), however, anticipated a much tighter contest, giving the NDA 123–135 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 104–115, with minimal gains for smaller parties.
Other surveys - including Republic–Jan Ki Baat, Times Now-CVoter, India Ahead-ETG Research, and ABP News-CVoter-suggested the possibility of a hung assembly, indicating an unpredictable electoral outcome.
What Actually Happened
When results were declared, the outcome surprised many pollsters. Contrary to most predictions, NDA managed to retain power with a slim majority, securing 125 seats and a 37.26% vote share. The Mahagathbandhan followed closely with 110 seats and 37.23% of the vote.
Within the NDA, the BJP emerged as the strongest player, winning 74 seats, significantly improving its tally from the previous election. The JD(U), led by Nitish Kumar, bagged 43 seats, while allies VIP and HAM won four seats each.
On the opposition side, the RJD won 75 seats, the Congress managed 19, and the Left parties - including CPI(ML), CPI, and CPI(M) -collectively secured 16 seats. Meanwhile, AIMIM bagged five seats, and smaller parties like the BSP, LJP, and independents picked up one seat each.
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