NDA, Mahagathbandhan In Tight Race In Siwan As Exit Polls Predict Split Verdict, Osama Shahab Leading
Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 5 of 8 seats, led by RJD and CPI(ML), while JD(U) secures NDA's only wins. Close contests in key seats like Siwan Sadar and Raghunathpur hinge on caste dynamics and anti-incumbency.
As both phases of the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 conclude, voter turnout across the state has been remarkably high, signalling a charged political atmosphere ahead of the November 14 results. The first phase of polling took place on November 6, followed by the second on November 11, and early exit polls indicate a clear edge for the NDA alliance statewide, though the Mahagathbandhan has put up a stiff fight in several regions.
In Siwan district, however, the battle remains razor-sharp. According to exit poll assessments and local journalist feedback, the eight Assembly seats here are witnessing a neck-and-neck contest between the two major alliances.
Siwan’s Seat Share Projection
NDA: 2 seats (Both for JD(U))
Mahagathbandhan: 5 seats (RJD: 2 | CPI(ML): 3)
The BJP and LJP (Ram Vilas) are predicted to draw a blank, while the JD(U) appears to be the NDA’s only bright spot in the district. On the opposition side, RJD and CPI(ML) are expected to hold most of their ground, with the Congress and VIP failing to open their account.
Seat-Wise Highlights
Local journalists including Surendra Kumar, Kausar Ali, Abhishek Srivastava, Chandan Kumar, and Avinash Kumar Singh suggest that Siwan Sadar, Raghunathpur, Jiradei, Duraundha, and Barharia are witnessing some of the most closely fought contests of the election.
- Siwan Sadar: RJD’s Awadh Bihari Chaudhary is reportedly leading over BJP’s Mangal Pandey, boosted by a strong Muslim-Yadav (MY) consolidation and AIMIM’s weak showing. Local dissatisfaction within the NDA, especially among Kushwaha voters, has added to BJP’s woes.
- Raghunathpur: Considered one of the hottest seats, CPI(ML)’s Osama Shahab, son of former MP Mohammad Shahabuddin, is projected to win. JD(U)’s Vikas Singh alias Jishu Singh is trailing, with local caste equations and a silent protest vote against the NDA working in Osama’s favour.
- Jiradei: CPI(ML)’s Amarjeet Kushwaha is seen as retaining his seat, though JD(U)’s Bheeshma Kushwaha is giving a tough fight. Observers say Jan Suraaj’s Munna Pandey may split the Brahmin vote, weakening the NDA’s prospects.
- Duraundha: NDA’s Byas Singh had held the seat, but this time the momentum appears to have shifted toward CPI(ML)’s Amarnath Yadav, according to senior journalist Abhishek Srivastava.
- Barharia: The contest is fluctuating. While JD(U)’s Indradev Patel is performing strongly, some local analysts believe RJD’s Arun Gupta may edge ahead due to strong anti-incumbency sentiment.
Analysts Split on Margins, But MGB Seen Ahead
Most local journalists agree that Siwan’s eight seats are witnessing tight margins, and a few hundred votes could decide several contests.
- Journalist Surendra Kumar believes RJD’s Awadh Bihari Chaudhary has the upper hand in Siwan Sadar due to intact MY support.
- Kausar Ali echoes that sentiment, predicting narrow wins for RJD in Sadar and CPI(ML) in Jiradei.
- Abhishek Srivastava, however, foresees small but decisive swings that could allow JD(U) to regain Jiradei and Barharia.
- Avinash Kumar Singh (Madan) maintains that urban trading communities remain somewhat divided, and the final outcome could hinge on last-minute vote transfers among Kushwaha and Bania voters.
Siwan’s record voter participation has added unpredictability to the final results. Analysts note that AIMIM and Jan Suraaj have played spoiler roles in several constituencies, drawing votes away from both major alliances.
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