Is High Voter Turnout A Loss For Ruling Govt In Bihar? This's What Past Data Shows

However, the record voter turnout this year has added a layer of uncertainty, especially given Bihar’s history of political shifts whenever polling numbers surge significantly.

Bihar’s electoral history shows a clear pattern: whenever turnout has risen by more than five percentage points, the ruling party has been unseated.

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Most exit polls have forecast a decisive win for the NDA in Bihar, with some surveys giving the ruling bloc between 150 and 170 seats out of the state’s 243-member Assembly. However, the record voter turnout this year has added a layer of uncertainty, especially given Bihar’s history of political shifts whenever polling numbers surge significantly.

According to data released by the Election Commission, the overall voter turnout stood at 66.91%, the highest ever recorded in the state. The first phase of voting saw 65.08% turnout, a record in itself, which was later surpassed in the second phase with 68.76% participation. Compared to the 57.29% turnout in 2020, this marks an increase of 9.62 percentage points, a jump that analysts say could prove politically significant.

When High Turnout Heralded Power Changes

Bihar’s electoral history shows a clear pattern: whenever turnout has risen by more than five percentage points, the ruling party has been unseated.

In 1967, voter participation climbed from 44.5% (1962) to 51.5%, leading to the fall of the Congress government and the formation of a coalition of opposition parties.

In 1980, turnout increased from 50.5% (1977) to 57.3%, once again bringing a change in power.

The pattern repeated in 1990, when turnout rose from 56.3% (1985) to 62%, paving the way for Janata Dal to replace Congress.

With a nearly 10% rise in voter participation this year, many observers believe the record turnout could once again upset conventional projections.

While some constituencies witnessed overwhelming participation, others saw relatively muted polling. During the second phase, Pranpur (Katihar) recorded the highest turnout at 81.02%, while Kumhrar (Patna) logged the lowest at 39.57%.

Top 10 constituencies with the highest turnout (Phase 2):

Pranpur (Katihar) – 81.02%
Thakurganj (Kishanganj) – 80.51%
Kadwa (Katihar) – 79.95%
Kishanganj (Kishanganj) – 79.62%
Kochadhaman (Kishanganj) – 79.15%
Barari (Katihar) – 78.50%
Balrampur (Katihar) – 78.10%
Bahadurganj (Kishanganj) – 78.05%
Kasba (Purnia) – 77.80%
Rupauli (Purnia) – 77.58%

Lowest Turnout In 10 Constituencies (Phase 2):

Kumhrar (Patna) – 39.57%
Digha (Patna) – 41.50%
Biharsharif (Nalanda) – 55.09%
Shahpur (Bhojpur) – 57.11%
Darauli (Siwan) – 57.00%
Ziradei (Siwan) – 57.17%
Ekma (Saran) – 58.35%
Danapur (Patna) – 58.52%
Chapra (Saran) – 58.61%
Daraunda (Siwan) – 58.90%

Women Voters Lead the Way

Women have once again outperformed men in turnout. Across Bihar’s 243 Assembly constituencies, overall voting stood at 66.9%, with 62.8% male and 71.6% female participation. Election officials said this reflects the growing political involvement of women voters, a trend that has become a decisive factor in Bihar’s recent elections.