ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll 2023: 5 Poll-Bound States Expected To See Close Fights, But Voters' Choice Of CMs Clear

ABP CVoter Opinion Polls 2023: How would the five assembly poll-bound states— Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram — vote? Read on to find out.

Clockwise from top left: Telangana CM KCR, Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel, Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot, and Mizoram CM Zoramthanga.

The latest figures of the ABP-CVoter opinion polls, reflecting the mood of the five poll-bound states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram — are out and the results are surprising. The most notable aspect of the poll was that a majority of the people in each of these states wanted to change their governments.

So how did the parties fare in the ABP-CVoter poll and what can they expect in the December 3 results? Well, the details of the opinion polls will have every party trying harder, but this could just help you get a sense of the December 3 results ahead of the elections. 

As many as 57% of the respondents seemed to be 'angry with the KCR government and wanted a change'. Only 34.3% said that they were 'not angry and do not want to change the government'. An 8.7% of the respondents seemed to be angry with the BRS government but wanted it in place.

The projected vote share of 40.5% for Bharat Rashtra Samithi would also have KCR worried. The projection in favour of Congress was at a close 39.4% and would give hope to A Revanth Reddy. 

In terms of seat projections, too, the BRS was only marginally ahead, with the party likely to win 49-61 constituencies. The Congress is likely to win 43-55 seats. The BJP is likely to win around 14.3% of the votes. The projected seat range in favour of BJP was 5-11.

However, KCR can take heart in the fact that the ABP-CVoter opinion poll respondents still consider him to be a favourite for the CM's post. While the BRS leader secured the support of 37% of the voters, Revanth Reddy closely trailed him with 31.2% of the votes in his favour. BJP's Bandi Sanjay emerged as the third most preferred candidate for the chair, with the support of 10.7% of the respondents.

The Zoramthanga government also seems to be facing a massive anti-incumbency wave, with 50% of the respondents saying that they wanted a change. However, the Zoramthanga's Mizo National Front (MNF) had the support of 34.7% of the respondents, when it came to the vote share projections. The Congress was ahead, albeit marginally, with 30.1% of respondents voting in its favour. The principal opposition party in Mizoram, Zoram People's Party, had the support of 25.8% of the respondents 

However, when it came to the seat projections, the Congress lagged behind quite a lot with the party expected to win 6-10 constituencies. The MNF, on the other hand, is projected to score big, bagging 17 to 21 seats of the 40 in the Mizoram Assembly. The ZPM could give Zoramthanga tough competition, winning 10-14 of the seats.

ZPM's Lalduhoma emerged as the most preferred candidate for the CM's job, with 32.4% of respondents in his favour. He is closely trailed by Zoramthanga of the MNF, who got 27.2% of the respondents' votes, and Lalsawta (INC), who was the CM choice for 24.4% of the respondents.

In Chhattisgarh, the Bhupesh Baghel dispensation faced opposition from 48.5% of the respondents, who are 'angry and want to change the government'. However, he also enjoys the support of 44.8% of the respondents who are 'Not angry & do not want to change the government'. As many as 6.7% of the respondents are 'Angry but do not want to change the government'.

The projections for vote share and seats will give Baghel hopes of retaining power in the state. The projected vote share for Congress is 44.8% and the party is likely to win 45 to 51 seats. However, Bhupesh Baghel can't afford to be complacent as the BJP closely trailed the Congress with a projected vote share of 42.7%. The saffron party is expected to win 36 to 42 seats in the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly.

Bhupesh Baghel is also the favourite candidate for CM with a whopping 45.8% of respondents voting for him. Former CM and BJP leader Raman Singh came in a distant second, managing to scrape the support of just 20.7% of the voters.

The Shivraj Singh Chouhan government also seems to be dealing with massive anti-incumbency, with 55.4% of the respondents in the ABP-CVoter survey responding "Yes" to the question "are you angry and want to change the government". Only 38.4% of the respondents were 'not angry and did not want to change the government'. The percentage of respondents who are 'angry but do not want to change the government' was a mere 6.1.

The projections for vote share and seats were in favour of Congress, with the party likely to win 118-130 with a vote share of 44.3%. The BJP, on the other, hand is projected to win 99-111 seats in the 230-member assembly with a vote share of 42.1%

Former CM and Congress leader Kamal Nath emerged as the most preferred CM candidate in the ABP-CVoter survey, with 42.4% of the respondents batting in his favour. Shivraj Singh Chouhan wasn't far away, though, with the support of 38% of the respondents.

CM Ashok Gehlot will try hard to buck Rajasthan's trend of electing BJP and Congress alternatively. However, the ABP-CVoter opinion poll results suggest that it would be a task easier said than done. As many as 49.2% of the respondents said that they were angry with the Gehlot government and wanted it to be changed. However, 45.5% of the respondents were 'not angry and did not want to change the government'.

Interestingly, both the BJP and the Congress are likely to see gains in their vote shares from the previous election. However, in terms of projected seat wins, the BJP is likely to register a massive triumph. The saffron party is likely to win 114-124 seats with 44.8% of the votes, while the Congress is projected to bag 67-77 seats in the 200-member Rajasthan Assembly with 41.7% of the votes.

Ashok Gehlot,  though, remains the most preferred candidate for the top state government job, with 40.7% of the respondents backing him. Former CM and BJP leader Vasundhara Raje is the second most preferred candidate with the support of 24.7% of the respondents. Gehlot's party colleague Sachin Pilot came in a distant third in the ABP-CVoter poll, securing the support of just 10.5% of the respondents.

[Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Pre Poll CATI interviews conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters (sample size 63,516). The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.]