Finance Ministry Says India Can Absorb US Tariff Shock, Bets On Strong Fundamentals
In July 2025, India’s total exports (goods and services) recorded a growth rate of 4.5 per cent (YoY), driven primarily by a 12.7 per cent growth (YoY) in core merchandise exports.
While near-term risks to economic activity, principally exports and capital formation remain due to tariff-related uncertainties, the government and the private sector, acting in tandem and concert, can keep the disruptions to a minimum, the Finance Ministry’s ‘Monthly Economic Review’ said on Wednesday.
Going ahead, the robust macroeconomic fundamentals continue to bolster the resilience of the Indian economy.
“Setbacks eventually make us stronger and more agile, if handled properly. If the near-term economic pain is absorbed more by those who have the ability and the financial strength to do so, then small and medium enterprises in downstream industries will emerge stronger from the trade imbroglio. Now is the time to demonstrate an understanding of national interest,” according to the ‘Monthly Economic Review July 2025’.
The government’s recent policy initiatives, including the setting up of a Task Force for Next-Generation Reforms and the forthcoming GST reforms, deregulation initiatives of the States, coupled with the sovereign rating upgrade, are set to reduce borrowing costs, attract foreign capital, and bolster investment and consumption.
“These reforms mark the beginning of an accelerated phase of governance transformation, ensuring that India extends its own line of progress, becoming more resilient, inclusive, and globally competitive in an era of rising global economic self-interest,” the Review further stated.
The US administration has imposted a hefty 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, a move touted as the ‘economic blackmail’.
According to the Economic Review, robust macroeconomic performance and sound fundamentals over the past few years have earned India a well-deserved sovereign rating upgrade by the S&P credit rating agency to ‘BBB’.
“The rating upgrade underscores India’s resilient growth, anchored inflation expectations, and stronger credit metrics, underpinned by fiscal consolidation and improved quality of spending. Building on the growth momentum gained during Q1 of FY26, the Indian economy continues to reflect resilience in July 2025,” it noted.
Record e-way bill generation and a 16-month high in PMI manufacturing point to robust business activity. Further, the stronger expansion in the services PMI indicates growth in the services activity. Domestic demand remained buoyant, as reflected in FMCG sales, UPI transactions, and vehicle sales, supported by strong rural consumption, strengthening urban demand and favourable monsoon conditions.
Forward-looking surveys of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signal broad-based improvements in business conditions, with rising capacity utilisation, stable inventories, and optimistic expectations across manufacturing, services, and infrastructure, underscoring sustained confidence in economic activity.
Fiscal performance during Q1 of FY26 reflects a strong capex push, with robust growth in capital expenditure alongside healthy revenue growth driven primarily by non-tax receipts.
In July 2025, India’s total exports (goods and services) recorded a growth rate of 4.5 per cent (YoY), driven primarily by a 12.7 per cent growth (YoY) in core merchandise exports.
As of August 08, 2025, the foreign exchange reserves stand at a comfortable level of $695.1 billion, providing an import cover of 11.4 months.
“In the dynamic global trade landscape, India has adopted a calibrated approach to negotiating FTAs, aiming to expand market access while protecting domestic interests. Recently, two major agreements, the India-UK CETA and the India-EFTA TEPA, have been concluded, and negotiations continue with a few other nations,” said the Economic Review.
(This report has been published as part of the auto-generated syndicate wire feed. Apart from the headline, no editing has been done in the copy by ABP Live.)
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