Tripura Polls: The High Voter Turnout And What It Means For BJP Facing Stiff Challenge To Retain Power

Though a high turnout is often interpreted as a vote against the government, there are also examples of ruling parties returning to power despite an increase in voting percentage.

The northeastern state of Tripura voted this Thursday to elect a new government, and the polling was largely peaceful, barring some stray incidents in constituencies like Dhanpur, Kakraban-Salgarh, Khayerpur, Ramnagar, Majlishpur, Barjala, Pencharthal, etc. Although the final figure was yet to be announced at the time of writing, the voting has already touched 90 per cent. Last time, the voting percentage was 89.5 per cent while in the 2013 elections, the voting percentage was 93.6 per cent — the highest in the state’s history.

Though a high turnout is often interpreted as a vote against the government, there are also examples of ruling parties returning to power despite an increase in voting percentage. This has happened in Tripura too, which has been known for high voter turnouts. Since the end of the insurgency around 2006-07, the state has largely seen peaceful elections.

However, things started to change at the end of the last decade. At the end of 2018, the state had bypolls in many urban civic bodies where there were allegations of unfair elections. During the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, the West Tripura constituency witnessed violence and as a result, the Election Commission had to order a re-poll in 168 booths. This order confirmed that violence has once again increased in the state. Not only this, EC had to even reschedule the date for polling in the East Tripura constituency.  

Later in the same year, the BJP won 95% of the seats unopposed in the rural body polls — and there were many allegations of Opposition candidates not being allowed to contest. Even during the Left Front rule, the Left didn’t win such a massive number of seats uncontested. In 2021, the state witnessed civic body polls where again there were allegations of Opposition candidates not being allowed to contest and creating an environment of fear.

Against this backdrop, the high number of polling percentages assumes significance. What the voters have in their minds is difficult to say. The verdict will be known only on March 2.

BJP’s High-Profile Campaign In Meghalaya

The BJP is banking on a high-profile campaign to improve its seat tally in this Christian-majority northeastern state. This Thursday, Home Minister Amit Shah addressed an election rally in Tura of Garo Hills where he strongly attacked the present National People’s Party government led by Chief Minister Conrad Sangma. He called it the “most corrupt government in the country”. There was a huge gathering at the Tura rally.

Significantly, in the last five years, BJP was one of the partners of the NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance. According to Shah, as NPP is “corrupt”, the BJP broke the “alliance” and is contesting all 60 seats this time. NPP is still a constituent of the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance, a front consisting of non-Congress parties of the region.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also coming to the state on February 24 to boost the party’s campaign. Last time, it didn’t get suitable candidates to contest on all seats. But the situation this time is different. In fact, the party had to struggle to choose its candidates out of many. For the first time, the saffron party is contesting all seats.

The saffron party has often struggled to get a foothold in the state due to the label of being an “anti-Christian” party. However, there is an increased acceptance this time around largely due to the Modi government’s increased focus on the Northeast — a truth that cannot be denied. Funds for development projects have increased and there has been a focus on pending projects. That’s why the saffron party has been mainly banking on the Modi card to expand its foothold. Although the party got only two seats last time, it got a vote share of 9.6 per cent. This time, the party not only hopes to improve its vote share but also to take its seat tally to double digits.

Nagaland: BJP Says No Intention Of Post-Poll Alliance With Any Other Party

After there were reports in the state dailies that the BJP may go with other political parties to get the post of the chief minister, and ignore its senior ally Nagaland Democratic People’s Party led by Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio, the saffron party dismissed these speculations as “baseless”. BJP leader and state’s Deputy CM Y Patton this Wednesday stated that the NDPP-BJP will come to power and the saffron party has no intentions of post-poll alliance with any other party.

This statement from Patton himself assumes significance as it is believed that he harbours the dream of getting the CM post. There were speculation that he was one of the BJP leaders against the alliance deal under which NDPP was allotted 40 seats. This lobby of the party wanted at least an equal share of seats out of the total 60. However, they had to agree to the alliance deal with NDPP as worked out by the party’s central leadership.

Meanwhile, Amit Shah will be addressing a mega roadshow in Dimapur on February 20. Importantly, the district has three constituencies and it accounts for 29 per cent of minority Hindus. Of these, the BJP is contesting only the Dimapur I seat, which is the only non-reserved constituency in the state.

Also, this week BJP’s manifesto was released by national party president JP Nadda. The manifesto particularly focussed on Eastern Nagaland — which consists of six districts. The party promised a special development board and a special package for the region. The eastern part of the state, which consists of 20 assembly seats, is considerably less developed and development has been the main issue for the people of this region. Aware of the local issues, the BJP has focused on development to win as many seats as possible from here. This time the party is contesting eight seats in this region — last time it had won four.

Mizoram Assembly Passes Resolution Against UCC

The Mizoram assembly passed a resolution against Uniform Civil Code this week. In the 40-member assembly, 39 members supported the resolution, which was moved by Home Minister Lalchamliana. Only one member voted against the resolution — BJP’s lone MLA BD Chakma. Apart from the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF), the Opposition Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) and the Congress also supported the resolution.

This NE state will go to polls at the end of this year. The saffron party’s foothold has gradually been increasing in this state — and the MNF, which is also a constituent of the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance, sees an advantage in this. The party believes that criticising the BJP for being an “anti-Christian party” would be more beneficial for it. The recent passing of the UCC resolution sponsored by MNF in the state assembly is an indication that the Christian card is going to be played to win votes. It has to be mentioned that during the last assembly elections, the then-ruling Congress had played the Christian card to lessen the anti-incumbency against it.

The author is a political commentator.

[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]