Let down by Lalu, which way will Nitish go?

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (PTI/File Photo)

Theirs is perhaps the most intriguing  pairing in Bihar's politics. Together and apart, the two have dominated the political landscape of Bihar in a manner few others have.They brought about a seismic shift in the State's politics and put an end to the stranglehold that the upper castes had over Bihar. While a truce between the original Mandal twins, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar, cannot be ruled out, their differences, both personal and political, run deep and a break-up between the two at some point is a distinct possibility. Both belong to the Lohia school of politics and cut their political teeth in the JP movement during the Emergency. Together they've scripted some memorable victories ,  and also fought the most bitter of battles, scripted their rise and engineered each other's defeat, called each other the worst names possible and between themselves  have presided over Bihar's destiny for the last three decades. Both are salt of the earth, yet they are like chalk and cheese -- as different as wine and water. Lalu Prasad Yadav is a loud, flamboyant, in your face man of the masses. Nitish Kumar,  in sharp contrast, is sober, restrained and low key. Lalu likes the stage and is a powerful orator with an ability to work the crowd, which is second only to Narendra Modi. Nitish too is no pushover as a public speaker but not a match to the RJD chief. Nitish was by far the brighter of the two in their student days, and went on to secure a first division in civil engineering. Lalu admittedly had a fleeting acquaintance with anything to do with academics. Lalu is the most charismatic and the most controversial leader to emerge from Bihar for a long  time. He came to power promising both hope and magic, but  delivered precious little apart from social justice, wantonly allowing it to slip away. His years in power are best remembered for lawlessness, corruption and cronyism. Nitish Kumar, on the other hand, is a man for detail; good governance is his power mantra and under him Bihar has made huge strides on all fronts. Nitish is a man for form, procedure, and almost manical belief in probity in punlic life . While Lalu has been unflinching both in standing by those who have supported him and in his opposition to the BJP and its brand of politics, Nitish has not been averse to tying up with them. He has without any discernible compunction severed his ties with those who have helped him in the past,  like George Fernandes and even the BJP. Having spent the last two decades trying to pull down each other, the two came together ahead of the Bihar Assembly election out of fear of being wiped out by Narendra Modi. Both realised that the only way they could take on the Modi juggernaut and survive was by coming together and putting in place a major social coalition to thwart the BJP. It was  a marriage of compulsion and not conviction, from the very beginning. It was only a matter of time before the contradictions came to a head. At the heart of the current crisis in Bihar is the difference in their approach to power. To Lalu and his family, power is means to self-enrichment. To Nitish Kumar, power is about probity and good governance. The Chief Minister has assiduously cultivated a clean image, one that sets him apart from the current breed of politicians willing to compromise or look the other way while their colleagues enrich  themselves. Nitish has often told friends that he does not want to make the mistake that Manmohan Singh made -- of looking away while his colleagues made merry in UPA 2, thereby being tainted by association. In the past he hasn't hesitated to act against his own party men even at the hint of an allegation of this nature and sacked four of his Ministers, including Jitin Ram Manjhi during his previous term as Chief Minister . His natural inclination in the case of Tejaswi Yadav was to do the same . However, he has been hamstrung in taking action on account of the fact that his Government depends on the RJD's support for survival. This time around its a tough choice for him: he has to choose between saving his image or saving his Government. Nitish's best bet is that better sense will prevail and Lalu Yadav will come around to letting his son resign as the Deputy Chief Minister, with the RJD chief getting to chose Tejaswi's replacement. Either way it's advantage BJP in Bihar at the moment. The longer this stalemate continues the greater shall be the damage to Nitish's clean image and his promise of delivering good governance. Having exposed the complicity of Lalu's family in corruption scandals, it is now sitting pretty, allowing the JDU and the RJD to stew in the ensuing turmoil. In normal circumstances the investigating agencies would have arrested Tejaswi Yadav, but that's on hold, putting the onus of action against him on Nitish. If the CM forces him out it will almost inevitably imperil the Government. If he doesn't, his image will be compromised big time. Any which way it's the BJP that stands to gain. Its no secret that Nitish Kumar's patience is wearing thin both with the RJD in Bihar and with the Congress-led opposition grouping at the Centre. He finds the Congress's approach too lacklustre and obtuse. He blames the Congress for handing Assam on a platter to the BJP by standing in the way of an alliance with the AGP and Badruddin Ajmal's party, and for not accommodating the RLD and the JDU in its alliance with the SP in Uttar Pradesh. Now Nitish Kumar finds himself trapped between a rock and a hard place. If he breaks with the RJD and the Congress, his Government will almost certainly fall. The JD(U) has only about 10% votes in bihar and has never been able to form a Government on its own. The only option left would be to align with the BJP, which in turn would entail a huge compromise on his part and run the risk of not just alienating a powerful section of his support base, but also pose a serious question mark on any hopes that he may have of playing a role at the Centre. Nitish is spoken of in some quarters as the potential face of the anti-BJP forces in 2019, that he hopes to emerge as the alternative face. If he switches sides he will not only have to say good bye to those hopes but may even have to play second fiddle to the BJP in Bihar unless Modi suddenly decides to become generous and let him run Bihar. Prime Minister Modi has many qualities, but being generous to his rivals is not one of them. (Javed Ansari is a senior journalist and political commentator. He tweets @javedmansari) Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.