Headache called Pakistan has just got worse

Image courtesy: ISRO official website

Setting out the broad parameters of his neighbourhood policy at the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit in Nepal, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had made a not-so-veiled reference to India's forever recalcitrant and hostile western neighbour. Urging SAARC member states to seize the moment and make the most of the opportunities of the 'Asian Century', he had offered to lead the way. Those who wished to come with the rest were welcome; those who didn't could stay put. But that would not halt SAARC's onward march. On Friday, as the 'SAARC Satellite', launched by ISRO, went into orbit, the name missing from the list of participating countries was that of Pakistan. Modi had stood by the view he had articulated in Nepal. The satellite had long been in planning and its launch could well have waited for Pakistan to get out of its sulk and sign on as a participant. But there was no guarantee it ever would. In any case. No purpose would have been served by letting Pakistan play the spoiler in a region where it remains in the proverbial dog house, shunned by other members of SAARC. If Friday's launch underscored Modi's, and SAARC's, determination not to be weighed down by Pakistan as South Asia pursues economic growth and social development along with regional security and stability, it also marks the limits of China's interventionist, and if one may use the term, disruptionist, tactics to restrain India, the other rising power in Asia. Pakistan would have surely expected China to cajole and coerce others to postpone the launch, or not join in till Pakistan came around to signing on as a participant in the project. Which, of course, would have never happened and the wait would have been in perpetuity. Events did not quite play out that way. The SAARC satellite launch also coincides with the re-emergence of serious civil-military friction in Pakistan. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif finds his stature as head of an elected government diminishing by the day. The Pakistani Army has just further cut him down to size, as the phrase goes, by getting a two-star General who heads the ISPR to publicly and rudely rebuke him. This does not necessarily mean Sharif is down and out; it merely means he is down. How down will be known in the coming weeks and months. Smoke trails are seen after The Indian Space Research Organisation's (ISRO) GSAT-9 on board the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV-F09), launched from Sriharikota / AFP PHOTO With the khakis of Rawalpindi reasserting their primacy in Pakistan's decision-making process, especially in national security and foreign policy affairs, any substantial move by Sharif to reinitiate reconcilliation with India in the immediate future can be ruled out. If anything, he will further up the ante and seek to take a position right of the Pakistani Army's to demonstrate his credentials as a hardliner. Another spell in exile is not a prospect that would excite him. With US President Donald Trump yet to figure out his Administration's South Asia policy, he can't quite hope for support from America. As for China, it knows CPEC's future is tied not to the political fortunes of any incumbent civilian government in Islamabad but to transactional collaboration with the Generals in Rawalpindi. The Indian Space Research Organisation's (ISRO) GSAT-9 on board the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV-F09), launches in Sriharikota in the state of Andhra Pradesh on May 5, 2017. / AFP PHOTO All this and more is not good news for India, never mind Friday's soaring success. The impact of what's happening in Pakistan will be both internal and external. Pakistan's new push to using cross-border terrorism as an instrument of state policy and foisting jihadi violence in Kashmir Valley is already manifesting itself. Repeated violation of the ceasefire agreement and the deaths of Indian soldiers can no longer be wished away as an aberration. There is a certain pattern to them. The recrudescence of jihadi violence in the Kashmir Valley, too, is more than the annual summer burst of separatist enthusiasm. Modi will now have to take a long, hard look at what could be India's appropriate response. He could opt for more surgical strikes and risk an escalation. He could rally international opinion during his upcoming foreign travels and, as in the past, get others to pile pressure on Pakistan. Modi's meeting with Trump this summer could be particularly useful in this regard. Or he could just freeze out Pakistan, let it stew in its own fetid juices, and focus on shoring up the Indian economy, apart from rapidly and visibly boosting India's security capacity, both strategic and conventional. India aspires to be a powerful nation. It is this aspiration that Modi has tapped into successfully. 'New' India trusts him. The first test of a powerful nation is whether it can absorb punishment without flinching. The second test is whether it can inflict punishment without remorse. Platitudinous, vacuous and asinine statements like "the martyrs' sacrifice shall not go in vain" are for the weak and the limp-wristed. A rising India can do without them. 'New' India has no patience for them. It can be said with a degree of certitude that Modi is not unaware of this fact. Kanchan Gupta is Commissioning Editor & Commentator, ABP News. Columnist. Blogger. He tweets @KanchanGupta Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.