G20 Presidency Will Be A Selling Point For PM Modi-Led BJP In LS Polls, Joint Statement Or Not

A G20-themed banner of Prime Minister Narendra Modi put up at the Bharat Mandapam in preparation of the G20 Summit, in New Delhi. ( Image Source :PTI )

The two-day G20 Summit is beginning in New Delhi on Saturday, first time under India's Presidency, with a host of world leaders in attendance. Though Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be conspicuous by their absence, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Australian PM Anthony Albanese are all in New Delhi to attend the mega global event held annually to discuss economic, geoplitical and other pressing global issues.

The G20 (Group of 20) holds a strategic role in securing future global economic growth and prosperity, as its members represent about 85% of the global GDP, 75% of global trade and two-thirds of the world's population.

The G20 Presidency is helping India strengthen trade ties with member nations, and experts say this provides an opportunity to attract investments from those countries in sectors like infrastructure. With the event coming months before the next Lok Sabha elections, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be eyeing a third term, one question that is on everyone’s mind is whether the G20 Summit would help the Modi-led BJP in the polls, and if yes, how.   

Foreign policy issues played a bigger role in the 2019 elections than in the previous ones because PM Modi projected himself as tough on terrorism. The BJP has somewhat been successful in seeding into the minds of the people that the Congress adopted a soft approach towards Pakistan and China. The party benefitted electorally from the Balakot airstrikes. 

PM Modi was also applauded for the handling of the LAC situation after the Galwan Valley clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers that left 20 soldiers dead on the Indian side. As much as 53% respondents in an Indian Today C-Voter Mood of the Nation survey had said the central government handled the Chinese intrusions very well.

Foreign Policy To Play Even Bigger Role in 2024?

Ahead of the G20 Summit, American think tank Pew Research Center released findings of its recent survey, which shows that "views of India are generally positive” across the 23 countries surveyed.

It said 68% of those interviewed believed India's global influence was on the rise, though 19% percent thought that there had been no change in India's influence, and 13% thought India had become weaker in recent years.

As per India Today-MOTN survey, 51% respondents approve of India’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine war, with 61% saying Modi’s stature had risen globally. As far as the Modi government’s foreign policy performance is concerned, 48% rated it as “excellent” and 22% as “good”. With respect to India’s G20 Presidency, 47% of respondents felt it would enhance India’s global stature, while 41% said it would make no difference. So, the opinion is sort of divided here. While 73% of respondents said it would be a poll plank in 2024, 15% said it won’t be a poll plank. 

G20 Impacts Voting Pattern Of Middle Class

Can G20 have a similar impact across voting groups? Bread and butter issues like price rise, unemployment, poverty, and corruption are likely to impact rural voters more than G20 is. However, it could have a favourable impact on the middle class, which is aspirational, travels across the world, and thanks to the IT sector is working offshores.

The middle class today accounts for a chunky piece of the voting population (more than 30%) and also its turnout is the highest (70%). The BJP already gets 38% (the highest) support from the middle class. The G20 Presidency may further consolidate its support in favour of the BJP. 

It could also favourably impact the business class and the rich, who have traditionally voted for the party. However, the numbers are not significantly higher to alter the course of any election. 

The urban seats have a predominantly high population of middle class voters. The analysis of results of the 90 purely urban seats in India throws up interesting trends. In 2009, the Congress won almost half of these seats (40/90) on the back of signing of the historical US-India nuclear deal. 

In 2014, the BJP won a similar 40 urban seats electing a ‘stronger/nationalist’ leader Narendra Modi versus a ‘softer’ Manmohan Singh. In 2019, the air strike on Pakistan after the Pulwama terrorist attack propelled BJP to win 47 of these 90 urban seats. 

Joint Declaration Pangs

India’s rise in the world order has not been taken kindly by our neighbours, especially China whose president will be skipping the summit. There is a lack of consensus on the joint statement, the ‘Delhi Declaration’, as Russia has vowed to oppose it if its war on Ukraine finds a mention in it. The West led by the US has been insisting on the inclusion of a paragraph condemning Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine. 

Each of the members has a right to veto, which makes it very difficult to reach a consensus on the contentious issue and here is where India’s negotiation skills will be tested. 

However, even if a joint statement is not issued, it won’t be India’s fault, according to experts. Also, domestically, it may not matter as Russia is seen favorably in India and vice versa, even more than the US because of our historical ties. 

India’s upcoming G20 summit is likely to go down as the first ever not to issue a joint statement. If this comes to pass, then it won’t be New Delhi’s fault. The reality is that forces beyond India’s control are at play.

— Derek J. Grossman (@DerekJGrossman) September 3, 2023

The failure of issuing a joint statement could dampen the mood, but it may not be seen unfavourably by the globe, due to the complications involved, and neither in India because of our people-level ties with Russia. 

The G20 Presidency will be one of the key selling points for BJP in the next year general elections. The rural-urban dynamics though could cap the gains.

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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