Why Are Covid-19 Cases On The Rise Despite Over 90% Of India Being Fully Vaccinated? Here's What Experts Say

Despite over 90 per cent of India's eligible population being fully vaccinated against Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 infections have been increasing of late. Experts tell ABP Live the reasons behind this.

Experts have warned that people should not forget the fact that Covid-19 is still there in India. Therefore, it is important for the country to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour.

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Covid-19 cases in India have been on the rise since late February, with 6,155 fresh cases being reported on April 8, 2023, the highest in over six months. The number of active cases in India is 32,814, as of April 9, at 8:00 am IST. Over 5,30,965 deaths from Covid-19 have been reported so far, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 

Why there is a surge in Covid-19 cases despite the majority of Indians being vaccinated

Despite over 90 per cent of India's eligible population being fully vaccinated against Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 infections have been increasing of late. This is because the XBB.1.16 Omicron subvariant is more contagious than other SARS-CoV-2 strains, and has developed the ability to breach the immunity conferred by Covid-19 vaccines, experts say. 

Other reasons include waning immunity to SARS-CoV-2 due to a very small proportion of Indians getting the booster dose of Covid-19. According to the CoWIN portal, as many as 22,72,29,990 precautionary doses have been administered as of April 9, at 9:00 am IST. Only about 20 per cent of the eligible population of India has received the precautionary dose. 

Moreover, several people are no longer careful, and go to public places without wearing masks. Also, public health precautions have not been sufficiently strict.

Together, these factors account for the surge in Covid-19 cases despite the majority of India's population being vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.

“The recent rise in Covid 19 cases in India could be attributed to the Omicron subvariant XBB.1.16. This is more contagious and has developed the ability to outwit the immunity induced by Covid-19 vaccines. There could be other reasons as well, such as fading immunity to SARS-CoV-2 due to lack of precautionary vaccine dose coverage in the public at large, increased travel and social gatherings, pandemic fatigue and lax public health precautions/regulations,” Dr Anurag Saxena, HOD, Internal Medicine, Primus Super Speciality Hospital, New Delhi, told ABP Live.

Feeling demotivated about maintaining precautions and following recommended behaviours to protect oneself and others from SARS-CoV-2 is known as pandemic fatigue, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

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Experts have warned that people should not forget the fact that Covid-19 is still there in India. Therefore, it is important for the country to follow Covid-appropriate behaviour.

“The reason why Covid-19 cases are rising again is twofold. Firstly, we have lowered our guard. Secondly, Indians have thought that Covid-19 is gone from the country. But it has not gone from India. So, we have to continue following Covid-appropriate behaviour. These include avoiding crowded places, using masks and following all the precautions Indians were taking when Covid-19 was at its peak,” Dr Sanjay Dhall, Director, Internal Medicine, Max Super Speciality Hospital, Shalimar Bagh, told ABP Live.

People who have not been vaccinated against Covid-19 have experienced modifications in their immune system. 

“Multiple factors are contributing to the current situation, such as declining immunity over time and limited uptake of booster doses, as well as modifications in the immunity of those who have not received the vaccine. The emergence of new variants combined with reduced use of non-pharmaceutical interventions like masking may also increase transmission, leading to a surge in Covid-19 cases,”  Dr Babina NM, Chief Medical Officer, Jindal Naturecure Institute, Bangalore, told ABP Live.

Also, a large proportion of the vaccinated population includes older individuals who are living with other comorbidities. As a result, these individuals are more vulnerable to severe Covid-19 outcomes.

“There are more vaccinated individuals than unvaccinated ones, and the vaccinated population, particularly those who have received booster doses, tends to be older and has pre-existing health conditions that make the population more vulnerable to severe Covid-19 outcomes,” Dr NM added.

While herd immunity plays an important role in protecting the population by creating a resilient environment against SARS-CoV-2, this is not a static situation because the virus continuously evolves through mutation.

“The containment of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent upon two factors: an individual's risk of exposure and the level of immunity within the community. Herd immunity plays a vital role in safeguarding the population by creating a resilient environment against the virus. However, this is not a static situation, as the virus continuously evolves by mutating and producing new variants. These variants may have the potential to partially evade the immunity provided by existing vaccines, coupled with the gradual decline in vaccine-induced immunity over time. These factors collectively contribute to the recent surge in Covid-19 cases,” Dr Dipu TS, Associate Professor, Division of Infectious Diseases, Amrita Hospital, told ABP Live.

Despite the fact that the new Omicron subvariant does not cause severe disease, people must remain vigilant and wear masks when they step out of their homes, in order to reduce the risk of contracting as well as spreading SARS-CoV-2.