OPINION | Bangla Desh — China’s New Client State

Bangladesh's deepening engagement with China, spanning infrastructure, defence and strategic cooperation, has triggered fresh debate over the shifting geopolitical balance in South Asia and the implications for India's security interests.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman met Chinese President Xi Jinping on June 26 in Beijing.

Source : PMO Bangladesh

Show Quick Read

Key points generated by AI, verified by newsroom

• This shifts regional dynamics, challenging India's security landscape.

Driven by a strong anti-India sentiment, Bangladesh is forging a significant pro-China alliance. Tarique Rahman and Xi Jinping have announced a “new era” in their relationship, aiming to enhance their strategic partnership and establish a "China-Bangladesh community with a shared future."

This partnership is expected to be more profound than China's existing ties with Pakistan, positioning both nations as close economic and strategic allies.

Rahman's Beijing Visit Signals Strategic Shift

The recent visit of Bangladesh's Prime Minister to Beijing from June 24-26 has resulted in strategic benefits for China, as Bangladesh has granted it the opportunity to expand its influence across the country, including its land and maritime borders with India. This development is likely to have long-term regional implications, further solidifying China's presence in South Asia.

A key outcome of Rahman's visit was the agreement to transfer the operation, modernization, and expansion of Mongla port, Bangladesh's second-largest port, to China. This decision is particularly striking given that the Sheikh Hasina government had previously sought India's assistance in developing the port, which would also have  facilitated  trade with India's northeastern states.

Additionally, Rahman has invited Chinese industries to relocate to Bangladesh and has agreed to various projects, including the supply of J-10C fighter aircraft and the establishment of a 150 acre Chinese development zone near Mongla port, indicating a significant increase in Chinese influence in the region.

Bangladesh's Foreign Policy Tilts Towards Beijing

Recent developments from the June visit of the Bangladeshi Prime Minister to Beijing indicate a significant shift in Dhaka's foreign policy, aligning closely with China. This new BNP administration appears to be fostering a relationship that may lead to long-term dependence on China, raising concerns about the implications for regional stability and sovereignty.

Pakistan's anti-India stance has already positioned it as a client state of China, which seeks to encircle India from the west. Similarly, Bangladesh's growing ties with China suggest it may become another nation under Chinese influence, effectively sandwiching India between two adversarial neighbours. 

This geopolitical dynamic poses a strategic challenge for India, as both fronts become increasingly aligned with Chinese interests.

China's Expanding Strategic Footprint

The transfer of Mongla port to China for modernization, along with initiatives like the management of the Teesta River and the acquisition of J-10 fighters, enhances China's military and economic foothold in Bangladesh. These developments not only facilitate Chinese access to the Bay of Bengal but also enable the deployment of Chinese personnel near the Indian border, further complicating India's security landscape.

Bangladesh is currently in the process of establishing a submarine base, with Chinese assistance , at Pekua, located near  Cox Bazaar , which is anticipated to accommodate six submarines manufactured in China. At present, the Bangladesh Navy operates two second-hand submarines sourced from China. Although there have been no recent announcements regarding the acquisition of additional submarines from China, the development of the Pekua submarine base strongly suggests that it will eventually serve as a home for more Chinese-made submarines. This strategic move reflects Bangladesh's growing naval capabilities, albeit with reliance on foreign technology and support.

In addition to naval enhancements, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh has engaged in discussions with Chinese officials concerning the procurement of J-10 C fighter aircraft for the Bangladesh Air Force. However, the challenge lies in the fact that Bangladesh may struggle to maintain these advanced military assets independently. The complexities of operating modern fighter jets and submarines necessitate a dependence on Chinese technicians for routine maintenance and technical support. This reliance raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of Bangladesh's military capabilities and its ability to operate sophisticated equipment without continuous external assistance.

Mongla Port's Strategic Significance

 The modernization of Mongla port is set to transform it into a commercial hub, yet it is likely that China will exploit its strategic location to monitor Indian naval activities in the Bay of Bengal.

Situated merely 200 kms from Kolkata and 100 kms from the Benapole-Petrapole land route, Mongla port presents an advantageous vantage point for surveillance. It is plausible to speculate that China may convert the port into a radar and sonar monitoring station, enabling it to track every movement of Indian warships and submarines.

Furthermore, this location would facilitate the monitoring of communications and signals from Indian land forces, particularly those emanating from the Sukna headquarters of the Indian Army's 33 Corps, which oversees all Chinese People's Liberation Army movements along the eastern front.

In a similar vein to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China has extended an invitation to Bangladesh to participate in the strategically significant China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which runs perilously close to Indian territories, thereby enhancing China's ability to observe military movements and potentially support insurgent activities in India's northeastern states.

A Relationship Deeper Than Pakistan's?

Although Bangladesh has not yet characterized its relationship with China in the grandiose terms of being "higher than the mountains and deeper than the sea," it is anticipated that in the coming years, the Chinese presence in Bangladesh will become significantly more pronounced than it currently is in Pakistan. The trajectory of evolving China Bangla Desh relations shows that India’s eastern neighbour will become another colony of China like Pakistan, as described in various strategic circles.

This shift is likely to be driven by a combination of economic partnerships and strategic alignments that favour Chinese interests in the region. As Bangladesh continues to develop its infrastructure and economy, it appears poised to embrace a closer alliance with China, which may lead to a transformation in the geopolitical landscape of South Asia.

The rise of anti-India sentiments within Bangladesh has given rise to a narrative that suggests the potential isolation of the seven northeastern Indian states from the rest of India through the narrow Siliguri corridor, often referred to as the "chicken's neck." This notion, which has been gaining traction since the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, reflects a troubling trend within the security establishment that seems to indulge in the fantasy of easily severing these states from India.

Speculation abounds regarding the influence of China and Pakistan in this context, particularly given the visits of Pakistani military officials to the Siliguri Corridor and reports of a Chinese military delegation assessing the area after the ousting of the Hasina government. Such developments raise alarms about the potential revival of military infrastructure, such as the World War II-era Lalmunirhat air force base, which could have significant implications for India's national security.

The strategic projects that China is likely to pursue in Bangladesh may encounter little to no local resistance, contrasting sharply with the anti-China sentiments prevalent in Pakistan. Despite China's controversial policies in Xinjiang, which have drawn international criticism, the current political climate in Bangladesh, particularly under the leadership of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), appears to be welcoming towards China.

This partnership is framed as a mutually beneficial arrangement, with Bangladesh offering its land for economic and strategic exploitation under the guise of development. The implications of this relationship could reshape regional dynamics, as Bangladesh positions itself as a key player in China's broader ambitions in South Asia.

( Ranjit Kumar is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst)