How Big A Problem Are Illegal Indians For US? 11 Insights From Johns Hopkins Study 

Study conducted by Abby Budiman, a PhD candidate at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and Devesh Kapur, a professor at the institute. It was published Feb 10.

Over 300 Indians have been sent back by the US since Donald Trump assumed office last month.

Source : PTI

What states account for the highest number of unauthorised/illegal Indian immigrants arriving at the US border with asylum requests? And what is the share of Indians among people who make a go for the “American dream” by arriving in the US illegally?

A new study by researchers associated with the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) makes some interesting observations about unauthorised Indians in the US as military planes full of such immigrants being sent back to India under the Donald Trump presidency are making headlines.

The study, ‘Unauthorized Indians in the United States: Trends and Developments’, has been conducted by Abby Budiman, a PhD candidate at SAIS, and Devesh Kapur, a professor of South Asia Studies at the institute. It was published on the institute’s website on February 10.

The analysis primarily relies on official US government data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). “... DHS’s 2022 estimate implies that roughly 7% of the entire Indian foreign-born population in the US was unauthorised during that year,” the study notes. 

Here are 11 key points from the research: 

• The study cites data from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs to note that around 16,000 Indians were deported from the US between 2009 and 2024. Around 750 people were deported “annually on average during the Obama presidency years, 1,550 during the Trump presidency, and 900 during the Biden presidency”, it says.
• DHS estimates suggest the unauthorised Indian immigrant population increased from 28,000 in 1990 to 1,20,000 in 2000, and to 2,70,000 in 2010. It then peaked at 5,60,000 in 2016 before sharply declining to 2,20,000 in 2022. 

 

Three US military planes have so far brought back illegal immigrants to India under Trump 2.0. The latest of these landed on Sunday night. (Photo source: PTI)

• California, Texas, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois — the states with the largest overall foreign-born Indian populations — also account for the highest numbers of unauthorised Indian immigrants.
• In fiscal year 2024, apprehension records involving Indians at the US-Canada border increased significantly, “accounting for over one-third (36%) of all Indian apprehensions” at the 3 US borders (the other 2 are the southern one with Mexico and the coastline border “comprising the coastline, ports, and waterways in southeastern US states, as well as US territories in the Caribbean”). This marked a sharp rise from the previous year, where it only represented 4% of all crossings, the study adds. Here, the authors note the role of Canadian “diploma mills… [that] were only too happy to accept dubious international students, 50,000 of whom did not show up after entering Canada (20,000 from India alone), heading south to the US border, a cheaper and much less arduous entryway” than the US’ southern border.
• The study cites data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to note that there has been an “eight-times increase in the number of new asylum requests from Indian nationals in the US since the turn of the decade, rising from approximately 6,000 in 2020 to over 51,000 in 2023”. The trend, it adds, is also evident in four other developed countries where Indians constitute one of the largest origin groups among all asylum seekers: Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

The first US military aircraft carrying deported Indians lands in Amritsar on February 5. (Photo source: PTI)

• Among Indians, Punjabi speakers “have consistently represented the largest group… involved in asylum claims since 2001”. Between FY 2001 and 2022, the study notes, as many as 66% of asylum cases involving Indian nationals were filed by Punjabi speakers. “This strongly suggests that individuals from Punjab (and Haryana) are the primary group of Indian migrants encountered at the US border and filing asylum requests,” the study notes, adding that the other common languages spoken by Indian asylum requesters were “Hindi (14%), English (8%), and Gujarati (7%)”. Punjabi speakers were also the most likely to have their asylum requests approved in US immigration courts compared to speakers of other Indian languages, the study notes, citing information from Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC), a data-gathering organisation. “According to TRAC data, 63% of cases involving Punjabi speakers were granted asylum.
• Similarly, a majority of cases (58%) involving Hindi speakers also saw approval. In contrast, only 25% of cases involving Gujarati speakers were approved,” it notes.

A deported Indian photographed leaving the airport. (Photo source: PTI)

• The vast majority of “asylum seekers are economic migrants who face limited economic opportunities at home and thus seek employment opportunities abroad”. The authors note that they saw “very little evidence of India’s poor marginalised communities or those from regions with ongoing antimilitancy operations by the government among asylum seekers”. “Indeed, the financial costs of coming to the US, whether through the arduous journey through Latin and Central America to Mexico, or as ‘fake’ international students to Canada, are 30 to 100 times India’s per capita income, so only those with assets that can be pledged or sold (especially land) can afford to make the journey”.
• Indian nationals account for only a small fraction of all migrants deported from the US, rarely exceeding 1% of the total.
• Among Indian temporary (nonimmigrant) visa holders in the US, suspected in-country ‘remain rates (staying beyond visa tenure)’ have generally stayed low between FY 2016 and 2023, “consistently below 2 percent in most years (and under 30,000 in any year). Notably, the unlawful remain rates for Indians are similar to those from China”, the study notes.
• The in-country remain rates for “student and cultural exchange visas have gradually increased between FY 2020 and 2023, reaching a record high of 3.8% from 1.6% — the highest rate recorded since overstay estimates were made available in 2016”. “Meanwhile, the remain rates for business and tourism visa holders rose significantly during the Covid-19 pandemic but returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023,” the study adds.