Why Flight Turbulence Is Getting Worse, And What It Means For Air Travel

Experts predict a doubling or tripling of severe turbulence due to shifting wind patterns and stronger jet streams.

While planes are structurally sound, airlines are adapting procedures, and passengers are urged to buckle up.

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Turbulence has long been part of the flying experience, but it’s becoming more frequent — and more dangerous. Experts warn that climate change is fuelling this shift, increasing the likelihood of severe in-flight jolts that can cause serious injuries and, in rare cases, even death.

Andrew Davies, a project manager en route to New Zealand, experienced this firsthand when his flight suddenly dropped mid-air during a storm over Myanmar in 2024. "It was like a rollercoaster," he recalled. "People were crying. Debris and coffee everywhere. My iPad hit me in the head," he told BBC. One passenger, 73-year-old Geoff Kitchen, died of a heart attack during the incident.

While fatalities caused by turbulence remain extremely rare, estimated at only four since 1981, injuries are rising. In the US alone, over 200 severe injuries have been recorded since 2009, most involving unrestrained cabin crew. In 2023, nearly 40% of all serious in-flight passenger injuries worldwide were caused by turbulence, according to the International Civil Aviation Organisation.

Much of the increase is linked to climate change. As global temperatures rise, shifting wind patterns and unstable weather systems are making the skies bumpier. Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, warns that “we could see a doubling or even tripling in the amount of severe turbulence over the next few decades.” He attributes the trend to stronger jet streams and more intense thunderstorms driven by warmer, moisture-rich air.

The North Atlantic flight corridor, one of the world’s busiest routes, has seen a 55% surge in severe turbulence over the past 40 years. But other regions — including East Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East — are also experiencing increases.

There are three main types of turbulence: convective (from storms), orographic (from mountains), and clear-air, the most difficult to detect. The last type is hazardous because it cannot be seen by radar or pilots, and often strikes without warning.

While turbulence forecasting has improved, with accuracy increasing from 60% to 75% in the last two decades, it’s still not perfect. Airlines are making adjustments: for example, Southwest Airlines in the US now ends cabin service earlier to keep crew seated and buckled, while Korean Air has stopped serving hot noodles due to scalding risks during rough flights.

Despite the risks, aviation experts stress that modern aircraft are built to withstand extreme conditions. “Wings on a 747 can flex up to 25 degrees without breaking,” said Chris Keane, a former pilot and instructor. “You’d be amazed how strong they are.”

Still, for nervous passengers, worsening turbulence is a source of growing anxiety. “More turbulence to me equals more chance of something going wrong,” said Wendy Barker, a flyer from Norfolk.

As skies grow more unpredictable, one thing remains clear: buckling up may be more important than ever.