ABP News-CVoter Survey: AAP On Top In Punjab, BJP Could Retain Uttarakhand Despite Anti-Incumbency

In Punjab, the battle for the throne is between the ruling Congress and Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party. Incumbent BJP is running strong in the hill state of Uttarakhand.

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ABP CVoter Opinion Poll: With only a few months left for the much-awaited Assembly elections in as many as five states of the country, ABP News and CVoter just conducted its monthly survey to gauge the mood of voters in these states.

According to the latest round of snap poll conducted in Punjab, where the battle for the throne is between the ruling Congress and Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), voters seem to predict a hung assembly. 

Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to retain power in the hill state of Uttarakhand, benefiting from the division of anti-incumbency votes between Congress and the AAP, the new entrant in the political fray in the state.

ABP CVoter Snap Poll — Punjab

The survey conducted in Punjab, with a sample size of over 18,000 respondents, shows AAP emerging as the single largest party in the state in the 2022 assembly polls. The erstwhile NDA composed of BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal is no more in contention for power in 2022.

As things stand today, while Congress is projected to win a 34.1 per cent vote share in Punjab, while AAP is projected to grab 38.4 per cent votes, SAD is projected to secure 20.4 per cent votes and BJP is projected to win 2.6 per cent vote share.

Translated into seats, there are high chances of a hung house in Punjab Assembly 2022. AAP could be the single largest party as the party is projected to grab 50 to 56 seats. Congress may finish a strong second by winning 39 to 45 seats, SAD is likely to grab 17 to 23 seats and BJP may notch 0 to 1 seats. The total strength of Punjab assembly is 117 seats.

ABP CVoter Snap Poll — Uttarakhand

Unlike in Punjab, the BJP seems to be leading the race and is expected to return to power in Uttarakhand, going by the voters’ mood as of now. Political experts have been of the opinion that changing chief ministers in the state will help the incumbent BJP in the upcoming Assembly polls.

In terms of vote share in the latest round of snap poll, the BJP is expected to grab 39.8 per cent of votes in the upcoming Assembly election scheduled to be held early next year. While the main opposition party, the Congress, is likely to garner 35.7 per cent votes, new entrant AAP could corner 12.6 per cent of the votes. 

In terms of number of seats, as per the survey data, the BJP is projected to grab seats in a range of 33 to 39, the Congress could win 29 to 35 seats, and AAP is likely to grab 1 to 3 seats in the upcoming Assembly elections. The total strength of Uttarakhand Assembly is 70 seats.

Assembly elections are slated to be held in five states of the country including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur in early 2022.

[The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 92000+ across 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 13th November 2021 to 9th December 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]