Fact Check: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Higher On Dec 24, 2024, Than On Same Date In 1979. Does This Disprove Climate Change?
Facebook user shares screenshot of X post claiming that 17% increase in Antarctica’s sea ice extent on December 24, 2024, compared to same date in 1979, proves ‘climate scientists are lying’.
- The Verdict: Misleading While Antarctic sea ice trends vary, global climate systems confirm that climate change is occurring at an alarming rate.
What is the claim?
A Facebook user has shared a screenshot of an X post (archived here) claiming that the 17 percent increase in Antarctica's sea ice extent on December 24, 2024, compared to the same date in 1979, proves that “climate scientists are lying”.
The original X post (archived here), shared by habitual climate change denier Tony Heller, had amassed 4.7 million views and 52,000 reactions at the time of writing this story.
However, the comparison is flawed as it cherry-picked data from a single day in 2024 and compared it to the ice extent on the same date in 1979. According to experts, comparing just a day (or a few days) from only two specific years cannot depict the actual picture, and only decadal-scale trends provide meaningful insights into climate-induced changes.
What are the facts?
The post attributed the data to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University of Colorado Boulder. On viewing the data for the year 2024, we noted that the extent of Antarctic sea ice was lower than in 1979, except for a few days in December. However, as per the data, the level was indeed 17 percent higher on December 24, 2024, than the same date in 1979, as claimed.
Speaking to Logically Facts, Audrey Payne, a communication specialist from NSIDC, quoted the center’s Senior Research Scientist, Walt Meier, as saying, “Comparing just a day (or a few days) from only two specific years is cherry-picking and is not a scientifically valid way to assess the long-term changes in the ice cover."
The representative directed us to an NSIDC article on cherry-picking sea ice data, which noted, “Depending on who is using the data and to what end, sea ice data can be misinterpreted and lead many to the wrong conclusions.” It added, “Since the start of the continuous satellite record in November 1978, Arctic sea ice has exhibited a clear downward trend. Antarctic sea ice has exhibited little trend with extreme year-to-year variability over the same period.”
In September 2023, Antarctic sea ice shrank to its lowest annual maximum on record, indicating that climate change might be beginning to affect it. However, by December 2024, after the record lows, the ice extent rebounded, reaching 7.3 million square kilometers (2.8 million square miles) — close to the 1981-2010 average, according to the NSIDC.
NSIDC noted that the slowdown in Antarctic sea ice extent loss during December offers a brief counterpoint to ongoing concerns but is insufficient to dismiss them entirely. Sea ice concentrations across Antarctica remain significantly low overall, it said.
Sea level extent—the Antarctic and the Arctic sea
Payne quoted Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at the Earth Science Observation Center of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, and said, “Sea ice extent in both hemispheres is quite variable, and for this reason, NSIDC only considers decadal-scale trends to be indicative of a climate-induced change.”
While climate change has clearly driven significant loss of Arctic sea ice, its impact on Antarctic sea ice remains uncertain or negligible. Contrary to the post's implication that "climate scientists are lying,” organisations like NASA and the NSIDC have openly acknowledged this fact on their websites.
“For the first 35 years or so of consistent satellite measurements, Antarctica’s sea ice extent appeared to be slowly rising—this culminated in very large ice extents in 2013 and 2014; however, a sharp decline began in 2016, and sea ice has been generally below the long-term average in the past 8 years. In the absence of a clear climate reason for the change, many scientists looked to oceanic changes as the cause. Most recently, Antarctic sea ice has changed the script again, at least in the short term, as the springtime retreat was quite slow, and by the end of December, sea ice extent in Antarctica was, at least briefly, near the long-term average again," Scambos’ statement from Payne read.
The verdict
While Antarctic sea ice trends have shown significant variability over the years, long-term changes have been documented across many different climate system components, such as the atmosphere, oceans, and land masses, to confirm that climate change is occurring and at an alarming rate. Claims based on cherry-picked data, such as those made in the X post, are misleading and lack scientific validity. Experts emphasise that only decadal-scale trends provide meaningful insights into climate-induced changes.
This report first appeared on logicallyfacts.com, and has been republished on ABP Live as part of a special arrangement. Apart from the headline, no changes have been made in the report by ABP Live.
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