BJP-led NDA may fall 8 seats short of majority in 2019 elections: ABP News-CVoter Survey

The ruling coalition is likely to win 264 out of the 543 seats and the Congress-led UPA is expected to clinch 141 seats, while the others are expected to win 138 seats.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (PTI)

NEW DELHI: The BJP-led NDA will fall marginally short of majority in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, a survey commissioned by ABP News-CVoter has found. The ruling coalition is likely to win 264 out of the 543 seats and the Congress-led UPA is expected to clinch 141 seats, while the others are expected to win 138 seats. The survey projection may bring a set back to the ruling NDA coalition as they seem to be falling eight short of the magical 272 mark and have to rely on post-poll tie-ups to form the government at the Centre In terms of vote share, the NDA is likely to get 41 per cent of votes against 31 for the UPA. The other parties are likely to get 28 per cent. The NDA tally in Uttar Pradesh is likely to come down to 29 from 73 due to the SP-BSP combine, which is slated to win 47 out of 80 seats. The survey has found the BJP is likely to win big in Odisha. The saffron party is projected to win 12 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats and push Naveen Patnaik's regional force BJD to the second place. If NDA gets into a post-poll alliance with parties like YSR Congress (11), Biju Janata Dal (9) and Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (9), its tally will go up to 300, the survey has revealed. Among the NDA, the BJP, which scooped 282 seats in 2014, is likely to get 220 seats this time while its partners the JDU and LJP together may bag 20 and Shiv Sena 14. Other smaller NDA constituents are slated to get 10 seats, the opinion poll has found. In the UPA camp, the Congress is likely to increase its tally to 86 from a dismal 44 in 2014 while DMK+ is set to win 30 seats in Tamil Nadu. The NCP will get 6 seats and other UPA parties may bag some 19 seats. Other highlights:

• The Balakot strikes have made BJP’s core voters happy, repositioned the party for neutral voters and put its opponents on defensive. PM Modi is the first PM after Indira Gandhi to attack sovereign Pakistani territory.
• 51 per cent respondents are very satisfied with the working of central government as of March 7, 2019 when compared to 36 per cent on January 1, 2019. The net approval rating which calculates the numbers of approvers minus the disapprovers has risen to all time of 62 per cent as of March 7, 2019, this figure stood at 32 per cent at start of the year.
• The image and approval ratings of Prime Minister Modi mirror the trend for central government. The net approval ratings have risen sharply in the aftermath of Pulwama terror attack.
• Congress President Rahul Gandhi was a rising force by the turn of this year. Fresh from triple victory of Hindi heartland he seemed to be rejuvenating a moribund Congress. This reflected well in his net approval rating of 23 per cent on January 1, 2019. The Pulwama terror attacks and subsequent shift in the narrative could not have come at a more inopportune time for him. Currently his net approval rating is down to 8 per cent which constitutes a near 3-fold fall in his fortunes.
• The government of the day started this year on a very thin net approval of 6 per cent. 37 per cent respondents indicated an improvement in their living standards over the past year while 31 per cent indicated a decline. By March 7, 2019 the same figures had shifted to 45 per cent and 22 per cent.
• The optimism figures regarding the quality of life in next year remain range bound among the respondents. In terms of net optimism, the net of optimists over pessimists was 43 per cent at start of the year. This figure has risen to 51 per cent by March 7, 2019. Clearly, regarding the future we are witnessing less spectacular rise in this metric than when compared to others.
• If the preceding pointers were regarding past and future, this one covers the present. The government started the year with 15 per cent net approval and is currently poised at 41 per cent net approval. The budget caused a 7 per cent jump in net approval, in addition post Pulwama we have observed a nearly 19 per cent jump in the net approval.
• Interpretation: Budgetary measures and Pulwama attack have consolidated the current perception of state of affairs. This augurs well for the incumbent as it tends to reduce anti-incumbency and also mitigates the opposition attacks that come into force nearer the poll dates, in other words it gives a buffer against proximate to the poll ambushes.
• Unemployment has been the number one issue for some time in our tracker. Unemployment was the number one issue for 29 per cent respondents in first week of 2019, it has ever since moderated to 22  per cent by March 7, 2019. Security issues and terror strikes had for most part remained a non-issue in our tracker data. Post-pulwama there has been a meteoric rise in the importance of this issue. From a recall rate of around 2.6 per cent in days preceding Pulwama attack, the issue has a striking recall rate of 26 per cent currently. Security and terror strikes has become the most important issue of recall.
• PM Modi’s approval rating has risen from 47 per cent on first day of the year to 62 per cent by March 7, 2019. Primary challenger Rahul Gandhi has dropped numbers from 26 per cent to 16 per cent in the same time period. Other contenders are too small nationally, however they may be big in their own regions of influence.
• When we present the respondents with a binary choice between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi for PM post the results are similar. Rahul Gandhi was asserted as the PM choice by a record 38 per cent respondents on January 1, 2019, ever since he has now slumped to 27 per cent. PM Modi’s approval on the other hand has risen from 51 per cent to 64 per cent. The differential in net approval ratings has been even more stark, from a relatively thin margin of 12 per cent it has now soared to 38 per cent in favor of PM Modi.