Why BJP lost to Rahul Gandhi in Hindi Heartland States with echoes reaching Lok Sabha

Assembly Elections Results 2018: India sets a right example every time after a major election to the world when it comes to electoral democracy. 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a land slide victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) made elections pundits to think on different permutations and combinations apart from just man to man marking and on ground activities.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (Image: File| PTI)

Assembly Elections Results 2018: India sets a right example every time after a major election to the world when it comes to electoral democracy. 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a land slide victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) made elections pundits to think on different permutations and combinations apart from just man to man marking and on ground activities. Emerging of social media, setting up of IT Cells and its aggressive use by political parties and novelties brought by young Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) opened many alternative and easy ways to reach out to urban voters. Looking at the diverse demography of India, we can sense almost new strategy for every election that happens in this sub continent. Several tools have come, a lot of propaganda marketing have started and is working fine for political association but still the essence of democracy remains the same, i.e. People's Power! The recent assembly elections in five states (Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram) showcased the non permanent nature of candidature, irrespective of whoever it is. Madhya Pradesh itself has seen 72-year old veteran Congress strong man Kamalnath losing to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Sundar Lal Patwa and then again emerging to power from Chindwara, his home turf. Having said that, this time 13 out of 19 ministers lost their seats in Rajasthan including Sports and PWD ministers loosing in Chattisgarh and IAS-turned-politician OP Choudhary defeated in Kharsia constituency. This makes it clear that the power of democracy still lies in the hands of people and its nature is not always biased on the basis of individuality. Shuffle in Vote share The Hindu heart land, cow belt and urban voters have always been strong hold for NDA alliance. If we look at the current elections in Madhya Pradesh, BJP managed to bag only 50 per cent (22/44) urban seats compared to a massive 90 per cent gain in 2013. Likewise in rural belt the party managed to win only 47 per cent seats (87/186) compared to 67 per cent in 2013. Similarly in Rajasthan, the saffron party had swiped 94 per cent ( 29/31) seats in last assemble elections but this time managed only 58 per cent ( 18/31). Even in Madhya Pradesh, with high urban density, NDA bagged only 16/30 seats which quite low in their strong hold. These numbers goes to prove that it’s not just the agrarian crisis or the loan waver which has caused them the elections, but some crucial Central policies including demonetisation and implementation of Good and Services Tax (GST). Another game changer was swing in winning percentage on reserved seats. In 2013, NDA managed 70 per cent of Scheduled Caste (SC) seats and 39 per cent of Scheduled Tribes (ST) seats, but this time the party could pull up only 31 per cent of SC seats and 20 per cent of ST seats. It is a clear indication that there is a huge rift in people's approach from cast prospective towards NDA and the BJP’s development model and slogan of ‘Sabka Sath Sabka Vikas’. These unprecedented alterations in country’s economic policies have cost BJP with a loss of 1.3 per cent of its vote share from last time. Chhattisgarh has 30 per cent of the tribal voters that voted one sided for NDA during the last assembly election, but the recent election showed an upside down trend altogether. The anti-incumbency factor Anti-incumbency definitely played a major role but looking at the vote percentage and shift in the share of votes, BJP in Madhya Pradesh lost close to 2.46 per cent votes whereas the gap in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh was even bigger. Outgoing CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan surely added a lot what central leadership couldn't in the state. The projection of Chauhan as a CM was carried out half heartedly by the central team and so they lost the share which could have been the game changer. Looking at the rallies carried out by Narenda modi in these states, the Prime Minister himself addressed rallies in 27 constituencies out of which the BJP won in 13. This is a strike rate of 48 per cent. His four rallies in Chhattisgarh drew a complete blank. His strike rate of rallies had gone up to 86 per cent in in Uttar Pradesh during the Assembly elections. In Madhya Pradesh, the PM aggressively campaigned in 10 seats out of which, the BJP managed to win only 6 – a strike rate of 60 per cent. Telangana – A reason to worry Elections in Telengana were definitely a point to ponder for both Cogress and the BJP. The saffron party bagged only 6.7 per cent of the vote share and also lost TDP as a key allay which might cost it in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It’s also significant to see that 'Others' have lost almost 9 per cent of the vote share in Telangana which clearly indicates that in 2019 it will be UPA vs TRS and whoever wins, in both the cases BJP will be in the losing end. Mizoram has 1 loksabha seat and with a by MNF, it is quite possible that they will win again in 2019 giving a +1 for NDA. The Yogi Adityanath factor It will also not be wrong to say that BJP firebrand leader and UP chief minister played a pivotal role in changing the game for his own party. Aditynath addressed as many as 74 rallies across four out of the five poll-bound states, with the maximum – 26 – being in Rajasthan. Adityanath’s total tally is the highest for any star campaigner. Here’s a look at some of the strong remarks made by UP CM to lure Hindu voters across these states: 1. “Aapko Ali Mubarak, hamare liye to Bajrangbali hi kaafi hain” (Congratulations to you on Ali, for us Lord Hanuman is enough) 2. Congress's politics of appeasement is creating a hurdle in the construction of Ram temple which is an emblem of India's faith. 3. If you are keen to rename Hyderabad as Bhagyanagar, then vote for BJP 4. Uttar Pradesh mein koi mob lynching ki ghatna nahi hui hai... Bulandshahr mein jo hua wo ek durghatna thi. (There has been no incidents of mob lynching in Uttar Pradesh... What happened in Bulandshahr was an accident.) 5. If the BJP comes to power in Telangana, Asaduddin Owaisi will be made to run away like the Nizam. As it got a fierce reality check in semi-finals before the 2019 Lok Sabha electoral battle, BJP needs to work on its approach to lure voters. It is noteworthy that a large chunk of BJP votes come from these aforementioned ideologies. It might or might not work in 2019, but it surely did not work in 5 states. After an impressive comeback by Congress and especially Rahul Gandhi, 2019 is going to be interesting and the upcoming polls will be fought on more facts and less of propaganda. These elections have certainly paved the way for a better, fairer and high- octane electoral encounter in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. The author is President of Manthan Trust and tweets at saurav_mrigank Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.