UP election: Will Shivpal sabotage Akhilesh's strategy?

Image: Shivpal Yadav/PTI-File Photo

The knives were out roughly five months ago. They are now ready to be plunged. Senior Samajwadi Party leader Shivpal Yadav has hinted at forming a new outfit after March 11, when the result of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election  will be known. If he keeps his word, it cannot be without Mulayam Singh Yadav’s blessing. And, whether he goes ahead with the threat or not, for now it’s obvious that the Samajwadi Party is approaching the election in a seriously fragmented condition. The talk of a united face in the party to take on the ‘communal’ Bharatiya Janata Party and a ‘corrupt’ Bahujan Samaj Party is a farce. Shivpal Yadav’s announcement can mar the electoral prospects of the Samajwadi Party. His camp followers will not want the rival group led by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav to triumph. They may not openly sabotage the plan, but they will surreptitiously work to humble the candidates blessed by the Chief Minister and opposed by them. If the Samajwadi Party, now helmed by Akhilesh Yadav, faces an electoral setback, it will be Shivpal Yadav’s gain. The Shivpal Yadav factor was one of the reasons for the Chief Minister to align with the Congress. Akhilesh Yadav hopes to offset some of the losses arising out the rift by his outreach to the national party. But the Congress is in dire straits itself and cannot be much of a booster. Therefore, Akhilesh Yadav is depending on his new-found stature and image of a ‘development-oriented’ leader to sail through. March 11 will tell if the people have bought into this. The challenge for the Chief Minister is two-fold. The first is, of course, to blunt the opposition from within his party. The second is to combat the BJP and the BSP. The former tussle may have seen him emerge, at least for outward purposes, victorious. But even this may turn out to be pyrrhic. He is the party’s national president and his nominees have been placed in key party positions, including that of State party chief. And yet, just being seen as opposing his powerful uncle, and more importantly his father, can lead to the loss of hardcore Samajwadi Party voters, loyal to the party founder. Akhilesh Yadav can take comfort from reports that his father has agreed to participate in the Samajwadi Party-Congress joint campaigns. But it could be a case of too little too late. Akhilesh Yadav has no doubt been careful to not criticise his father in the public domain. His vitriol has been reserved for the likes of Shivpal Yadav and Amar Singh. Indeed, he has used every occasion to send the message that his party is led by Mulayam Singh, and at times he had resorted to emotionalism to make this point. He understands the senior Yadav’s appeal and public stature, within and outside the party. He does not at this stage wish to be directly confrontational with his father. Interestingly, even the Shivpal faction is seeking to capitalise on the same Mulayam factor. Shivpal Yadav recently remarked that he would oppose tooth and nail all those leaders within the party who had “humiliated” Mulayam Singh Yadav. He played upon sentiments by reminding the people that he toiled selflessly when the party was in its nascent stages and Mulayam Singh Yadav had been incarcerated. Shivpal Yadav has a point. None of the ‘younger’ lot which now surrounds Akhliesh Yadav, and a few seniors too, was anywhere around when the likes of Mulayam, Shivpal Janeshwar Mishra and Azam Khan battled odds to establish the party and eventually place it on a firm footing. It must hurt to be sidelined after all this contribution. It’s difficult to imagine that the deeply split Samajwadi Party can take on the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine as well as Mayawati’s BSP. The alliance with the Congress can at best be to the national party’s advantage. An equal three-way contest is theoretically possible, but a two-way fight is more of a ground reality. The third player will finish a not-so-close third. Which will that player be? In the public perception, largely guided by the media, the BSP does not seem to have traction that the SP and the BJP have. But Mayawati’s party is reputed to be a silent performer, whose voters burst out in the open on polling day. This may not have happened in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, but this is an Assembly election. If Akhilesh Yadav does well, the Chief Minister can take credit and effectively finish off his rivals within the Samajwadi Party. If he doesn’t, he can accuse the opposite camp of sabotage. In the latter case, the Shivpal Yadav group will go for the kill. He may dump his resolve to form a new party and plot to regain what he has lost. Interesting times are ahead. Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.