UP And Gujarat Made 2022 Great For BJP, But There Are Challenges Ahead. 2023 Will Be Crucial

BJP will face off against Congress in four key states in 2023 ( Image Source :PTI )

The ruling party at the Centre has much at stake when assembly elections in Prime Minister’s home state are held. Political observers tend to look for a straw in the wind in the outcome of these elections to gauge the popularity of the leadership in power in Delhi. 

For instance, when Telegu matinee star turned politician NT Rama Rao inflicted a crushing defeat on PV Narsimha Rao’s Congress in the 1995 Andhra Pradesh assembly polls, it had a much wider resonance. The results weakened Rao, who failed to defend his own state, emboldened his detractors within and outside the Congress, and finally led to Congress’ defeat in 1996 polls.

That is why the outcome and the scale of victory were of critical importance to the BJP in the 2022 Gujarat assembly elections. Having learned its lessons from the mistakes made in 2017 when the Congress onslaught led by seasoned campaigners like Ashok Gehlot caught the ruling party off guard. 

This time around, BJP sought to manage its caste combinations right and tried to split the opposition vote right down the middle between Congress and AAP to break a long-standing record of Madhavsinh Solanki in the state assembly .

Not surprisingly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was fulsome in his praise for the state BJP chief CR Patil. A victory of this magnitude is a welcome electoral relief for the party in power at the center. 

READ | Why Congress May Use Himachal Template In 2023 To Counter BJP's 'Politics Of Revadis' Attack

How BJP Managed Two Big Victories And The Challenges Ahead 

The BJP started the year on a high note with a massive victory in Uttar Pradesh. It’s a state which Prime Minister represents in the Lok Sabha. The outcome in UP, a state that sends 80 MPs to the Lower House, showed the BJP has thus far managed to balance the political interest of its two key support bases — the upper caste and the non-Yadav backward classes. Backed by targeted welfarism, it has been able to mobilise a large chunk of subaltern votes in the heartland states. 

UP was also the first formidable test of the Centre’s Covid management programme, especially after the Delta wave ravaged vast swathes in the Gangetic plains in the summer of 2021.

The party was also able to wrest back power in Maharashtra after engineering defections in the Shiv Sena. 

However, the victories in UP were marred by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's defection from the NDA. The JD(U) leader has since sought to very subtly project himself as an alternative to the BJP. The opposition would be testing waters around Nitish Kumar — a non-Yadav OBC face from a heartland state — and see if can rally regional outfits in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. 

In the heartland states, BJP will have to face a renewed attempt by the opposition seeking to mobilize backward communities with demands of caste enumeration. 

Another setback for the BJP came in the last leg of assembly polls in 2022. Though Himanchal Pradesh sends just four MPs to the Lok Sabha, the undertones of the BJP’s defeat in the hill state had wider ramifications. First, BJP was not able to manage dissidence despite being in power both at the center and the state. Himachal is also the home constituency of party president JP Nadda. 

The Congress, meanwhile, successfully tested an alternative economic programme to what the BJP’s top leadership has been calling ‘revadi culture’. Congress’ poll promises like the revival of the old pension scheme for government employees seemed to have struck a chord.  

And finally, in Himachal, the Congress won an election in a direct contest against the BJP after almost four years.

The Elections In 2023

BJP will face off against Congress in four key states in 2023. 

In Madhya Pradesh, the battle lines are drawn and with the defection of Jyotiraditya Scindhia, the line of succession in the Congress is clear. The BJP, meanwhile, faces the problem of plenty. 

In Rajasthan, Congress has not been able to sort out leadership issues between CM Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. BJP too has to take a call on whether it will enter the electoral fray under the leadership of former CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia. 

In Chhattisgarh, the party has not been able to project strong backward leadership to challenge Congress CM Bhupesh Baghel.

Similarly, in Karnataka, former CM BS Yeddyurappa remains in the reckoning. And the Congress is relying on an organisational bulwark helmed by leadership in almost all major communities.

In neighbouring Telangana, BJP has worked to emerge as the key challenger to K Chandrashekhar Rao’s Telangana Rashtra Samithi. Elections in the state will test the BJP’s ability to mobilise OBC voters down south. 

In the Northeast, BJP will be up against a resurgent CPM in Tripura. And the outcome of this election will be critical to the sustenance of Left politics in India. 

The recent trend in Indian politics indicates the electorate may exercise different options in assembly and national elections. The opposition’s ability to challenge the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, however, would depend much on the performance of anti-BJP parties in the assembly elections slated to be held in 2023.

The author is an independent journalist who writes on politics and policy.

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