Predicting UP outcome isn’t easy

UP assembly elections in early 2017 has become psephologists and pollsters nightmare, with ever changing political landscape on caste issues and political realignments at regional level (it is a huge stretch from Saharanpur to Deoria). On the issues wideranging from cattle smuggling and role of 'gau rakshaks', relocation of Hindus in certain semi-urban pockets of west UP (Kairana palayan) minority reservation as promised in manifesto of SP in 2012, Bhoomi Adhikaran, advocacy by groups in Mirzapur, Bhadohi and Sonbhadra on right to work and laws related to worker’s rights, implementation of the Forest Rights Act, special measures to contain and prevent violence/crimes against women, implementation of the High Court Order where students of IAS officers to attend state run schools (Common School System), fair minimum price for farmers for sugarcane, recognition of the Dalit Safai Kamgar, prosecution of those involved in communal violence, lifting of false terror cases against minorities, SC's demand for reservation in promotion and  Dalits demand for sections of Janjaatis to be included in the State List. The issues are enormous as the large size of the state electorate. Still psephologists and pollsters want to play safe and want to make predictions of UP poll outcome on only one factor that is caste. Akhilesh Yadav has astutely developed his image recently which is completely different to 'old order' Samajwadi Party. He has tried to showcase his development model which includes Agra Expressway and Metro work in Lucknow and other urban centres, but Mulayam Singh Yadav, party supremo wants to focus on caste and Muslim -Yadav (MY) votebase. While speaking at a book release function recently in Lucknow, he himself made this point as important for his electoral politics by mentioning that it was necessary to fire on kar sevaks to restore rule of law during Ramjanmbhoomi-Babri Masjid agitation. BJP is focusing on retaining the rainbow coalition of Swaran, Non -Yadav OBC's and non -Jatav SC's in the backdrop of Hindutva as achieved in 2014. It seems to be on the safest wicket as far as its political game plan is concerned but there is a problem of this coalition getting stagnant and anti- incumbency of 73 MPs. On the other hand, BSP, in the light of intrusion by BJP in its rank and especially Swaran and OBCs, is attempting to focus on the issue of a lasting social alliance. It is also political—among Dalits and Muslims –naturally brought out through the assault of ‘gau rakshaks’ and recent incidents of Dalit-Muslim joint agitation in state of Gujarat to me it is asking for too much on the part of Maywati. For Congress it may not be in its game plan but it can only play the role of spoilsport to the big three players, even with few percentages of votes. It can cause jitters to BJP if it gets Brahmin votes, SP and BSP will face uphill task in several constituencies with it garnering Muslim and Dalit votes. So, psephologists and pollsters are not so sure of UP outcome as yet. Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd