One Nation One Election Vs 'One Opposition': Will BJP Benefit From Simultaneous Polls? It Didn't In Past

Representational image of voters lined up at a polling station. ( Image Source :Getty )

The Narendra Modi-led NDA government has called for a special session of Parliament from September 18-22, and it is rumored that it could table a bill on the much talked about 'One Nation, One Election' regime. The government has formed a panel to explore the possibility of 'One Nation, One Election' under the chairmanship of former President Ram Nath Kovind.

The announcement came in the backdrop of the “One Opposition” meeting in Mumbai. The I.N.D.I.A. bloc termed the announcement of the special session a diversionary tactic by the BJP to deny them due media coverage. There are also reports that key bills like Uniform Civil Code and Women’s Reservation Bill could be tabled and the occasion could be used to commemorate the successful landing of Chandrayan-3 and the conclusion of G20 meeting in Delhi. 

One Nation One Election has been a manifesto promise of the BJP in 2014 and 2019. It is argued that one election or a simultaneous election of Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha will save costs, time and energy. 

One Nation, One Election: How Feasible 

In my opinion, the biggest benefit is that it will save hours of campaigning by the prime minister and chief ministers who otherwise always remain in election mode, and thus will be able to devote more time to governance. However, there are some practical difficulties, like the term of the assemblies and the Lok Sabha will need to be fixed, and what happens if a government falls midway through the term needs to be defined. 

Also, it is unlikely to happen in one shot, and a cycle of 5 years may be required to club all state elections together with the national polls. 

The existing state assemblies need to be dissolved and since many states have opposition parties in power, it would be difficult for the Centre to get them onboard and sacrifice their remainder of the term. So simultaneous election in all states along with the general elections does not appear to be possible. 

There is a possibility of a few states holding elections together with the national elections — meaning, all elections slated to happen in a span of one year can be clubbed together. 

Elections to the five states where the existing term is ending in November-December 2023 — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Meghalaya — and the four states that go to polls together with general elections, namely Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, and elections due next year end in Jharkhand, Haryana and Maharashtra can be clubbed.

It's not that simultaneous polls is new to India. From 1952 to 1967, all elections had taken place together. The chain was broken after the Congress lost power in 1967 to a coalition of regional parties / breakaway groups in nine states, as many of them didn’t last a full term, necessitating fresh polls.  

How BJP Fared In Past Simultaneous Polls  

The opposition alleges that the BJP wants to nationalise even the state elections by holding all polls together. Many also believe that simultaneous polls will help the BJP in near term, and that’s why it is mooting the idea. Here is a look at what happened in 2019 and 2014 when four states — Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh — went to polls together with the Lok Sabha elections.

In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal won the state elections bagging 117 out of the 147 seats, and the maximum seats in general elections — 12 out of 21. A similar trend was visible in 2014 as well when both state and general elections were held together in the state. 

In Andhra, Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP secured victory in 151 out of the 175 seats to win the state, and garnered maximum 22 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats. The trend was similar in 2014 also. 

In Sikkim, the Sikkim Kranti Morcha won the state elections by securing 17 out of the 32 seats, and the lone Parliamentary seat too.

In Arunachal, the BJP won 41 out of 60 seats and both the Lok Sabha seats in 2019. 

In all these elections, barring in Arunachal, it is the regional parties that won more seats in both state and general elections. 

In 2014, simultaneous polls happened in Telangana too, when K. Chandrasekhar Rao’s TRS (now BRS) won 63 of the 119 assembly seats and 11 out of the 17 Lok Sabha seats. The next assembly elections were called early in Telangana. TRS won 88 of the 119 seats in the Vidhan Sabha election held in 2018, but lost ground in the general elections winning just 7 out of the 17 seats. 

So, the talk of one nation, one election benefitting only the BJP may not be true of the above data is concerned. There appears to be a strong correlation between the prospects of parties winning the state elections and their performance in the general elections in case of simultaneous polls.

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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