OPINION | India's QUAD And BRICS Dilemma Amid Intensifying Iran War
India is once again finding itself in a paradox of sorts with the war in Iran nearing almost a month ransacking the global energy landscape even as the world is fast approaching another potential financial meltdown. This year India will not only be hosting the BRICS Summit even as it assumed the chairmanship of the grouping in January this year, New Delhi is also expected to organise a meeting of the Quad, consisting of the United States, Japan and Australia, after it got delayed last year owing to heightened diplomatic tensions between New Delhi and Washington DC.
The situation today is akin to September 2023, when India, being the G-20 Chair, hosted the Summit meeting and in the background the Russia-Ukraine war was raging. New Delhi, which did not take a clear position at that time also, faced extreme difficulties in bringing all the member countries together and get the joint communiqué signed. However, today India is finding itself in a far more complex situation even as New Delhi has chosen to side with the United States and Israel while calling out Iran for launching attacks on the Gulf countries that threatens the lives of nearly 10 million Indians living in West Asia.
However, the bilateral relationship between India and Iran, albeit under duress, continues to remain steady with Tehran allowing New Delhi to use the Strait of Hormuz, which has become the epicentre of sorts of the ongoing conflict as the narrow shipping lane acts as the only sea passage from the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the open ocean. The area is currently experiencing a severe geopolitical and economic crisis. Iran has imposed a de facto blockade on the strait thereby effectively closing it to most commercial traffic even as Tehran has begun exercising a "toll booth" style control.
Iran, which has always prioritised its ties with India as both countries share millennia-old civilizational ties, has said it will allow passage from the Hormuz Strait for “friendly nations” like India, China, Pakistan, Russia and Iraq. However, Tehran has been repeatedly asking New Delhi, ever since the war began, to mobilise the BRICS by building a consensus within the expanded 11-member bloc, which now includes countries on opposing sides of the war. Iran has directly petitioned India to use its leadership of BRICS to take a stand against the joint US-Israeli military campaign.
In multiple high-level calls, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have urged India to lead a BRICS-wide statement condemning the strikes on Iranian territory and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian called on BRICS to play an “independent role” in halting the aggression and safeguarding regional stability, framing the bloc as a possible diplomatic alternative to Western-led channels. Iran has proposed a new security framework composed of West Asian countries to ensure peace without "foreign interference".
The economic impact of the war, even though it has been a month since the conflict started, has been severe. Global oil prices have surged, with Brent crude peaking at $126 per barrel earlier this month. Approximately 20% of the world's oil and LNG supply is currently disrupted. India itself is grappling with a significant LPG crisis. Official prices for a 14.2 kg domestic cylinder rose by ₹60 (to roughly ₹913 in Delhi). In some regions, black market prices for domestic cylinders reportedly surged as high as ₹4,000. The situation has also led to a panic buying in cities like Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata, among others. Commercial users (restaurants, hotels, and industries) have borne the brunt of the shortage as the government prioritized domestic household supplies.
Earlier this week, during his address to both houses of Parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a compelling comparison between the current crisis-often dubbed Gulf War 3.0-and the challenges faced during the Covid era. This highlight emphasizes the urgency of the situation and calls for a united response to navigate these turbulent times.
Therefore, India is navigating a diplomatic tightrope to prevent the BRICS from fracturing. This is because both Russia and China have offered tacit support or direct condemnation of the strikes, member nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia-who have been targets of Iranian drone strikes-are unlikely to support a statement favouring Tehran.
At least three draft statements have been circulated among BRICS members, but two were rejected due to internal disagreements. The Ministry of External Affairs has also admitted that it is difficult to bridge gaps when several members are "directly involved" in the conflict. Despite Iran's pressure, India has maintained a posture of "cautious neutrality," focusing on de-escalation, maritime security, and dialogue rather than issuing a collective condemnation.
On the other hand, India is also being pressured by the United States to militarise Quad even as New Delhi has been asked by both Australia as well as Japan to come up with a robust agenda for the grouping. India, which was to host the Quad summit last year, was not able to bring these member countries together owing to its rising tensions with the Donald Trump administration.
Prime Minister Modi is now expected to visit Australia soon, which is likely to be preceded by a Quad foreign ministers meeting to be hosted by Canberra. In the meeting, it is expected that the member countries will discuss a complete transformation of the Quad, in other words, it will be given a definitive military dimension keeping in mind the national security interests of these four countries -something that New Delhi had been opposing since the beginning. The US, it is believed, has told India that Washington is considering the efficacy of such a grouping and it is making an assessment of its usefulness in promoting US’ interests. Therefore, India today is now facing a double-whammy from both sides of the warring parties to take on a larger role even as the country exercises strategic autonomy and have appealed for dialogue and diplomacy.
As the war in Iran escalates and transforms the geopolitical landscape of West Asia, it is crucial for New Delhi to adopt a decisive stance as a key player in the region. While India considers Iran to be part of its extended neighborhood, it should view this crisis as an opportunity. India can take the lead in facilitating dialogue among key stakeholders by leveraging its diplomatic skills, thereby promoting its commitment to dialogue and diplomacy.
(Nayanima Basu is an independent journalist writing on international relations and strategic affairs. Basu is also the author of 'The Fall of Kabul: Despatches From Chaos'.)
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