High stakes for BJP in UP; Rahul now pins hope on Punjab

The 2017 election bugle has been sounded. Assembly polls in five States over the next two months would be seen as a referendum of sorts on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Government and an acid test for both Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal. For the BJP, led by Narendra Modi and national president Amit Shah, winning Uttar Pradesh is a high stake affair in the wake of demonetisation and surgical strikes that have been touted as a magical pill against everything not going right in the country. Much more than Bihar and Delhi, Modi has put his personal prestige and popularity at stake. Amit Shah continues to exude confidence on the basis of multiple informal surveys (conducted by nine agencies) which have reportedly predicted the BJP has gained votes in the wake of demonetisation and  surgical strikes across the LoC. The ongoing tussle for supremacy in the Samajwadi Party has given the BJP reason to smile. On the face of it, Akhilesh Yadav's resurgence as powerful "Netaji" has the potential of retaining the party's Muslim support base. In such a scenario, the Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati, which was seen as the emerging dark horse against the BJP, appears to be a loser. If the Muslim voters of UP side with Akhilesh, Mayawati may find it tough to match the caste matrix of the BJP and the SP. There is a real possibility of both the SP and the BSP displaying their might but, in turn, helping the BJP walk away with the all important single largest party tag. For the Congress, the good news is that the situation cannot get any worse. Rahul Gandhi and his poll strategist Prashant Kishore have badly messed up their UP strategy and are now busy focusing on Punjab. The grand old party is counting heavily on Captain Amarinder Singh's ability to consolidate votes among the Jat Sikh peasantry. However, Rahul's own appeal among the youth and the weaker sections continues to be poor. In Uttarakhand too, the Congress is counting on another regional satrap, Harish Rawat, to perform a near miracle of retaining power. There is virtually little or no support for Rawat from 24, Akbar Road in terms of money, resources or effective campaigners. The Congress story is equally dismal in Manipur and Goa. Rahul will face a serious credibility question if Congress fails to win these two small States along with Punjab. There is a buzz in Congress circles that the formal coronation of Rahul as party chief and successor to Sonia Gandhi has been put on hold on the premise that the Congress would win Punjab. But in Punjab, Rahul faces a stiff challenge from Aam Admi Party  whose influence is said to be spreading in Goa too. For Arvind Kejriwal, nothing short of a victory in Punjab would ensure fulfilling his ambition to take on Modi. In recent weeks, Kejriwal's stock in Punjab is said to have fallen considerably but both the Congress and the Akali Dal-BJP continue to be wary of the 'Kejriwal factor'. If the BJP nets Uttar Pradesh, the poll outcome in other States will be inconsequential. For the Congress and Kejriwal, the same can be said about Punjab. Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.