OPINION | 2026: Power Politics, China Challenge & Why India’s Security Choices Matter Now
The world is entering a phase of change unseen in a century. For decades after the Cold War, global politics rested on US leadership, open trade and international rules. That order is now weakening. Power not only rules but is increasingly deciding outcomes. For India, this shift is not theoretical-it has direct consequences for national security, economic stability and strategic autonomy.
A defining feature of this new era is that major powers are no longer pursuing limited objectives. They have open-ended and expanding aims. Russia seeks long-term influence over Europe’s political order. China is not only focused on growth; it aims to reshape Asia and challenge US primacy. These ambitions are structural and enduring, not tactical or temporary.
As global institutions weaken, strong states increasingly act outside established norms. Trade is weaponised, sanctions are routine and military pressure is openly used to alter realities. Institutions like the UN and WTO struggle to restrain the behaviour. For countries in contested regions - India foremost among them - this creates a harsher strategic environment.
Asia: The Decisive Theatre
Asia is now the central arena of global competition. China’s rapid military modernisation, tensions around Taiwan and Japan’s renewed defence posture point to a more militarised Indo-Pacific. New technologies - hypersonic weapons, cyber operations, space systems and artificial intelligence - compress decision-making time and raise the risk of escalation.
For India, the most immediate challenge lies on land and in the air. China’s actions along the Line of Actual Control demonstrate a willingness to use force backed by sustained military pressure. Any future crisis will not remain confined to ground forces alone. Airpower will be decisive in shaping outcomes - through surveillance, rapid mobilisation, precision strikes, air defence and control of the electromagnetic spectrum.
Why Airpower Matters More Than Ever
In a world of expanding war aims, airpower provides speed, reach and strategic flexibility. Control of the air enables freedom of action across land and sea, while denial of airspace constrains an adversary’s options. Modern conflicts show that air and space assets are often employed in the opening stages to blind and paralyse opponents before large-scale ground engagements begin.
For India, airpower is central to deterrence along contested borders. The ability to rapidly shift forces, strike critical targets, defend airspace and integrate drones, space-based sensors and cyber capabilities can offset numerical disadvantages on the ground. Investment in fighters, force multipliers, air defence systems, long-range precision weapons and hardened bases is therefore not optional - it is essential.
Equally important is dominance of the electromagnetic and information domains. Airpower today is inseparable from space, cyber and electronic warfare. Surveillance, navigation, communications and targeting all depend on these layers. India must ensure resilience against disruption while developing the ability to impose costs in these domains.
Maritime Power: Important But Supporting
Maritime security remains important for India's trade and energy flows but in the emerging strategic environment it increasingly plays a supporting role to air and joint power. Sea control, sea denial and protection of critical sea lanes are vital, yet their effectiveness depends heavily on air cover, maritime surveillance aircraft, satellites and integrated command networks.
Rather than focusing on numbers alone, India's maritime approach should emphasise integration - with airpower, space assets and friendly navies to ensure situational awareness and deterrence across the wider region.
Economic Strength And Partnerships
Economic security is now strategic security. Supply chains, technology access, and industrial capacity are tools of power. India must reduce dependence on single sources for critical technologies and defence components while strengthening domestic manufacturing and innovation.
At the same time, partnerships matter more than ever. Strategic autonomy does not mean isolation. Deeper cooperation with the US, Japan, Australia, France and ASEAN countries enhances India's options without binding it to rigid alliances. Mini-lateral arrangements that deliver real capability - intelligence sharing, joint exercises and technology collaboration are increasingly valuable.
A Clear Message For India
The central lesson of this new era is simple: strength prevents pressure. India does not need to be aggressive but it must be ready. Airpower, supported by space and cyber capabilities will be the backbone of deterrence in any future crisis. Land forces, naval power, diplomacy and economic policy must all align around this reality.
The changes unfolding today will shape the next several decades. India's response - measured, resolute and forward-looking - will determine whether it merely adapts to a harsher world or helps shape the balance of power within it.
Capt Kaustubh Rana (Retd) writes on defence, national security and the wider policy choices that shape India’s future.
Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.
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