Bengal Panchayat Polls: TMC Wins, But At What Cost? Many Cautionary Signs For Mamata Banerjee

TMC workers and supporters celebrate the party's lead during the counting of votes of the West Bengal panchayat polls, in Nadia district on July 11, 2023.

Source : PTI

Following a tumultuous month plagued by widespread violence, the West Bengal panchayat election has reached its conclusion with a resounding triumph for Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress (TMC) party. As anticipated, the election outcome has solidified their dominant position with an overwhelming majority. However, as the party celebrates, it is crucial to acknowledge that the anguished cries of over 35 families, who tragically lost their loved ones to election-related violence, continue to resonate. In the realm of electoral politics, where numbers hold paramount importance, Mamata Banerjee's resounding victory as the undisputed leader of West Bengal, after securing an impressive vote share of over 52%, cannot be ignored, but the Trinamool triumph carries a multitude of cautionary signs for Mamata and her political faction.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) garnered approximately 22% of the vote share in this election, but has experienced a decline in support across various districts and regions where they once held considerable sway. Another factor to note is the emergence of the Indian Secular Front and a considerable surge in the vote share for both the Left Front and the Congress. These outcomes hold great significance and deserve attention. In West Bengal politics, the BJP finds itself in an unfamiliar position as it now stands as the distant second. However, merely attributing this setback to the prevailing violence would be an oversimplification of the matter at hand. It is imperative to recognise that the BJP has encountered a significant failure in establishing a robust grassroots organisation within the state.

Key Gains Of Mamata Banerjee

The TMC victory serves as a stark reminder that despite the swirling allegations of corruption surrounding its leaders on a multitude of fronts, the prevailing sentiment on the ground is one of recognition for the party's welfare initiatives, particularly those centred around direct monetary assistance such as Lakhmir Bhandar and the like. One cannot overlook the fact that the unwavering support of women towards Mamata Banerjee still persists. The implementation of various welfare schemes specifically aimed at women has undoubtedly solidified their allegiance, making them the primary support base of the TMC. The party has made remarkable electoral strides in the northern regions of Bengal, such as Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, Dinajpur, and other strongholds of the BJP. In a remarkable turn of events, TMC has managed to reclaim its stronghold in the Matua-dominated regions, such as Kalyani, Bangaon, and various other areas, in this election. The BJP has lost even at the booth of Union Minister of State and All India Matua Mahasangh chief Shantanu Thakur. Incidentally, less than a month before the election, Thakur was reported to have stopped TMC's all India general secretary Abhishek Banerjee, the nephew of Mamata Banerjee, from offering a puja at the main temple of Matuas when the latter visited the 'Thakurbari'. This created a major controversy, which may have helped the TMC.

Violence Is Not Sustainable

It was well known that the TMC would win the panchayat elections, but the manner in which the party and the administration under Mamata Banerjee permitted widespread violence prior to and during the panchayat elections was a disgrace. In a series of alarming incidents during the panchayat elections, reports have emerged regarding widespread rigging, firing, and blasts that occurred at numerous polling booths and locations throughout West Bengal. In this critical juncture, Mamata Banerjee must come to the realisation that the perpetuation of such violence is untenable. Opposition political parties in Bengal are asserting that the ongoing election fails to accurately reflect the true sentiments of the people. Their argument gains substantial traction due to the perceived failure of the government, the administration, and the state election commission in effectively addressing the rampant violence. CM Mamata is being urged to acknowledge the gravity of the situation as the panchayat election in Bengal has unfolded as one of the bloodiest in history. It is imperative that she takes responsibility for the shameful state of law and order in the state.

Rise Of ISF-CPM-Congress, Declining Minority Support

The dwindling minority support for the TMC is one of the most ominous indicators of this panchayat election. Significantly, the Indian Secular Front, headed by Furfura Sharif cleric Pirzada Abbas Siddiqui, won approximately 50 percent of the seats it contested in this election. The ISF's performance was limited to the Bhangar assembly district, where the party's MLA, Nausad Siddiqui, resides. The formation of the ISF and its subsequent alliance with the Congress and the Left occurred in 2021. In this assembly election, it is noteworthy that both the CPI(M) and the Congress performed well in the Muslim-dominated districts of Murshidabad and Malda. The rise of ISF and the increase in the vote share of CPI(M) and Congress in predominantly minority-dominated areas indicate that Muslims, who were once Mamata Banerjee's largest voting bloc, are dissatisfied with the TMC and seeking an alternative. If Mamata Banerjee does not address this issue promptly, her political future in Bengal and beyond will be affected.

Course Correction Is Needed Before 2024

In spite of the TMC's victory, violence and unrest in Bengal could revive the situation of the 2019 Lok Sabha election in 2024. In 2019, following another tumultuous panchayat elections of 2018, the TMC suffered an unprecedented defeat in the Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal, as the BJP won 18 of the state's 42 seats for the first time. This panchayat election has provided Mamata Banerjee with numerous lessons, and it is imperative that she make course corrections prior to 2024 if she does not want a repeat of 2019. She must recognise that the current law and order situation and widespread violence cannot be allowed to continue, and that she must restore the public's faith in the government. Welfare programmes may work, but the narrative of violence and corruption will dominate the narrative, and it is time Mamata provided a solution instead of just refuting all allegations. The TMC must cultivate and embrace the support of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, who had previously voted for the BJP but supported TNC in this panchayat election. The TMC cannot win Lok Sabha or assembly elections without the support of the Muslim community, which accounts for approximately 30 percent of the total population of West Bengal at this time. 

The resounding victory in this election undeniably cements Mamata Banerjee's steadfast stance against the BJP once more. However, the far-reaching consequences of the rampant violence are poised to reverberate within the opposition alliance, as both the Congress and the CPI(M) find themselves ensnared in the chaotic aftermath of the electoral mayhem. While a mega opposition alliance is taking shape, where the Congress and the TMC are seen on the same side, an approval to Mamata by the West Bengal Congress seems highly unlikely, which poses a significant challenge for the opposition alliance. With the recent split of the NCP and the ongoing dilemma faced by the AAP, the alliance is already weakened and unable to effectively operate without Banerjee's support. 

(The author is a visiting professor of journalism, a political columnist, and a doctoral research scholar.)

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