PM To Visit Sri Lanka As India-China Competition Heats Up In IOR. Tamil Issue Takes Backseat
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka this week will be his first to the country since 2019, and is part of Delhi’s plans to bring Colombo under its tight security apparatus.
Modi In Sri Lanka: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to embark on a critical two-day visit to Sri Lanka from April 4 to April 6. This visit is pivotal in India’s efforts to strengthen its influence in the Indian Ocean Region, particularly through the MAHASAGAR (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions) doctrine. The MAHASAGAR initiative was introduced during Modi’s visit to Mauritius last month, reflecting India’s strategic objective to bolster maritime security in light of China’s increasing assertiveness in the area.
One of the core goals of this visit is to integrate Sri Lanka into India’s broader security framework, thereby reducing the likelihood of Chinese naval vessels, including surveillance and spy ships, docking at Sri Lankan ports, high-ranking sources told ABP Live.
Indian officials are acutely aware of the growing influence China wields in Sri Lanka, which presents a complex challenge. The sources also said navigating this geopolitical landscape will be a formidable task for India, especially as China’s presence in the country expands rapidly.
To reinforce its commitment, India plans to grant Sri Lanka the same strategic importance that was extended to Mauritius during Modi’s visit. This is indicative of a broader strategy to enhance regional ties and counterbalance Chinese influence.
The MAHASAGAR doctrine is basically an upgraded version of the Modi government’s SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision, unveiled in 2015.
Modi’s visit, sources said, has been carefully planned even as it has been clubbed with his visit to Bangkok, Thailand, for the BIMSTEC Summit.
“China’s docking of its surveillance and spy vessels in Sri Lanka has become a cause of some concern for India. Therefore, for India, having deep-rooted maritime cooperation with Sri Lanka is crucial. Colombo is also serious about its relationship with India, which is why they are wholeheartedly supporting the Colombo Security Conclave, which is a positive sign,” Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House, told ABP Live.
On August 30, 2024, the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) — consisting of India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Mauritius — signed a charter and a memorandum of understanding for the establishment of a CSC secretariat. The CSC is a dialogue mechanism between the national security advisers of the member states to discuss the security initiatives in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal region.
The veteran diplomat added, “Under the MAHASAGAR initiative, India has to find a way to help Sri Lanka in not allowing the Chinese spy vessels to visit their ports, or at least tell them how to handle India’s denial in such matters.”
During a media briefing on the visit, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said India and Sri Lanka will be signing an MoU on defence cooperation – this will be the first time both countries will be signing a pact on defence and security. Since the civil war ended in Sri Lanka, China has been their main defence partner.
“We are working on a new agreement on defence cooperation with Sri Lanka and we very much hope that that can be concluded during this particular visit,” Misri told reporters.
Modi’s upcoming visit is particularly significant as it marks the first time he will travel to Sri Lanka since the nation underwent dramatic socio-political as well as economic upheaval in 2022, when the ‘Aragalaya’ movement erupted.
In September 2024, the United National Party (UNP), led by former President Ranil Wickremesinghe, faced a devastating defeat against the National People’s Power (NPP) of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the incumbent President.
This change in leadership represents a new chapter in Sri Lankan politics that could impact bilateral relations and the strategic landscape in the region. Modi’s visit presents both challenges and opportunities for India and Sri Lanka as the two nations navigate their complex relationship in an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment.
Sri Lanka’s Desperate Balancing Act
After coming to power, President Dissanayake chose to visit India for his first official visit abroad. During the two-day in December 2024, President Dissanayake gave all the positive signals.
Besides admitting publicly to the fact that India firmly stood beside Colombo during its economic crisis, the Lankan President also made it clear that he will be mindful of India’s security concerns. Without naming any country, he said Colombo will not allow itself to be used against New Delhi. Both the leaders also committed to enhance economic, energy, and defence cooperation.
However, while solidifying ties with India, President Dissanayake was also acutely aware of the delicate balancing act his administration must perform on the international stage. Shortly after his return from India, he scheduled a visit to China.
During this visit, he expressed gratitude towards China for its assistance in Sri Lanka’s ongoing debt restructuring and the various economic hurdles faced by the nation. He also sought to secure further infrastructure investments, praising the collaborative efforts in notable projects like the Colombo Port City and Hambantota Port, highlighting Sri Lanka’s intention to cultivate diverse partnerships for its economic advancement.
“Sri Lanka will be tilting towards China because it wants investments. India’s investments have failed to catch up pace. PM’s visit [is aimed] to encourage Indian investors to invest heavily in that country. Of course, the Adani matter has acted as a dampener,” added Bhatia.
In February this year, Sri Lanka revoked the power purchasing agreement signed in 2024 with the Adani Group, under a pact agreed during the erstwhile Rajapaksa government in 2022. The agreement envisaged the setting up of two wind power projects as part of a $442 million deal.
Tamil Reconciliation Issue
During the visit of President Dissanayake, Colombo made it clear to India that if Delhi wants strategic assurances from Sri Lanka, it will have to “stop meddling” in their internal affairs, including the decades-old issue concerning the full implementation of the 13th Amendment that seeks integration of the Tamil minority community there.
During Wickremesinghe’s tenure and with his predecessor Rajapaksa as well, Modi had pushed Sri Lanka to close the matter by implementing the 13th Amendment in the Sri Lankan Constitution.
The matter has indeed turned more complex in the island nation since it was introduced in the Sri Lankan constitution due to the Indo-Sri Lankan Peace Accord of 1987. Since then, the bilateral relationship between India and Sri Lanka has undergone a paradigm shift even as New Delhi continues to face a difficult and complex neighbourhood due to China’s growing influence in these countries.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka has been asking India to re-think the issue in a different manner. In 2021, Tamil parties in Sri Lanka wrote to Modi, seeking his intervention to ask Colombo to implement the amendment.
However, sources said, with Dissanayake getting votes from the Tamil parties, the matter has now shifted to the backburner. In fact, in the last joint statement, there was not even a mention of the Tamil reconciliation issue.
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