Rajasthan Election: Will Gehlot's 'Truce' With Pilot, Welfare Schemes Work For Congress? Here Is A SWOT Analysis

Rajasthan Election 2023: An array of welfare schemes touching the OBCs and women and CM Ashok Gehlot's mass connect are some of the factors that might work in favour of the Congress.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi with Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot

Source : PTI

Will Congress be able to buck the 'revolving door' trend since 1998 to retain Rajasthan? Or, will the feud between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot give BJP an upper hand?

The election in Rajasthan, one of the few states that has a Congress government, will be keenly watched as the results will give an inkling to which way the wind is blowing ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Rajasthan, which has 200 seats, will vote in a single phase on November 23. Votes will be counted on December 3.

READ | Rajasthan Election 2023: Single Phase Polls On November 25. Check Poll Schedule

Rajasthan Election: Here is a look at what are the strengths, weaknesses and challenges before the Congress

Strengths

An array of welfare schemes touching the OBCs and women and CM Ashok Gehlot's mass connect are some of the factors that might work in favour of the Congress, which has given the slogan of 'Kaam Kiya Hai Dil Se, Congress Phir Se (We have worked from the heart, Congress once again)' for the upcoming polls.

Besides, Congress has also managed to work out a truce between the warring Sachin Pilot and Gehlot, creating a united front. Pilot and Gehlot burying the hatchet will give Congress one headache less as the state unit has been battling factionalism for the past 2-3 years.

Pilot, despite being removed as deputy CM following his revolt in 2020, remains popular among the youth and was one of the key leaders behind Congress's win in 2018 following its worst defeat in 2013, where the party won just 21 seats.

Besides, the Congress will go to the hustings highlighting the welfare schemes as well as the announcement by Gehlot of a statewide caste census following demands by various caste groups and OBCs.

The Chiranjeevi health insurance scheme, which provides an annual cover of Rs 25 lakh to beneficiaries, MGNREGA-like employment scheme for urban areas, cooking gas cylinders at Rs 500 for Ujjwala beneficiaries, smartphones for women and a social security allowance have become popular among the people. The Congress will also highlight the restoration of the Old Pension Scheme for government employees to woo voters.

Weaknesses

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has visited Rajasthan more than 10 times in the past one year, has attacked the Congress over corruption, paper leaks in government recruitment exams, rising crimes against women and atrocities against Dalits.

Moreover, former minister Rajendra Gudha's claims of possessing a "red diary" containing details of financial irregularities involving the Chief Minister and his aides has also been raked up by BJP. The BJP has also accused the Congress of not fulfilling its promise of loan waiver for farmers.

Moreover, even though Congress may portray all is well between Gehlot and Pilot,  the factionalism in the party runs deep among the ground workers. Recently, Gehlot's aide and Congress MLA Danish Abrar faced slogans of "Pilot ke gaddaro ko, goli maaro..." when he was visiting his own  Sawai Madhopur  constituency, a report in Indian Express said.

Also, several state unit office bearers and district presidents were appointed in July, just months ahead of polls, giving them little time to address issues.

Opportunities

With BJP's state unit also riddled by factionalism, Congress has an opportunity to buck a 25 year-old trend of the ruling party never being voted back to power. The reinstatement of the Old Pension Scheme, which has benefited around seven lakh employees and their families, will give Congress an added advantage. Congress may gain some votes if they manage to convince voters of the Centre delaying the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project.

Rajasthan Election: Pre-Poll Surveys

CM Gehlot has himself claimed that this time Congress was not facing anti-incumbency, with opinion polls indicating a close fight and a slight edge for BJP.

The latest survey by ABP-CVoter has indicated BJP would wrest back the desert state, winning anywhere between 127 to 137 seats. The majority mark for a party to form the government is 101. BJP is likely to get around 46 per cent of the votes, a jump from the 38 per cent it received in the 2018 election. Congress is likely to bag between 59 to 69 seats, with a vote share of 42 per cent.

Interestingly, around 53 per cent of the voters said they expect Congress to suffer substantial losses. However, Gehlot remains the preferred CM candidate among voters with a 34 per cent approval rating. BJP's Vasundhara Raje is second with 22 per cent and Sachin Pilot is at number three at 18 per cent.

2018 Polls Manifesto Review

Earlier this year in January, CM Gehlot claimed that 96 per cent of the announcements made in the Congress party's manifesto ahead of the 2018 election were fulfilled.

In 2018, Congress had promised to waive off farmers' loans within 10 days of coming to power and give an allowance up to Rs 3,500 to educated unemployed youths.

The promise of farm loan waiver remains only partially fulfilled due to an impasse between Rajasthan and the Centre. The Congress government, in a reply in the Assembly, said it had waived off Rs 15,000 crore -- including Rs 7,000 crore that were waived off by the previous BJP government -- of agricultural loans availed by farmers from state cooperative banks. However, the party's promise of a same waiver for loans availed from nationalised banks and regional rural banks remains unfulfilled, a report in The Indian Express said.

Providing loans to youths at concessional rates and making education in government schools, colleges and universities free for women were other promises made by the party.

To prevent atrocities against journalists, Congress had also promised to pass the Journalists' Protection Act. No such legislation has yet been passed. It had also promised to remove the condition of minimum qualification required to contest Panchayati Raj polls.

Rajasthan Polls: Seats To Watch Out For

Sardarpura: It has been a bastion of CM Gehlot and he has won the seat uninterrupted since 1999

Tonk: A seat that has mostly Gurjar and Scheduled Caste voters, it was won by Sachin Pilot in 2018. 

Laxmangarh: Rajasthan Congress president Govind Singh Dotasra has represented the seat the seat since 2008. BJP has won only once in 2003.