Bihar 2025 Exit Polls vs Reality: How Accurate Were The Predictions?

Bihar 2025 exit polls predicted an NDA win, but the alliance’s landslide 206-seat victory far exceeded forecasts, highlighting the gap between polls and actual results.

Bihar 2025 NDA wins big as exit polls underestimated the scale of the victory

Source : X.com

Bihar’s 2025 assembly elections have delivered a decisive triumph for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), confirming the party’s return to power. While exit polls had already signalled a victory for the ruling coalition, what stunned observers was the sheer scale of the NDA’s win. With 206 seats in the 243-member assembly, the alliance didn’t just win — it surged to a landslide, far exceeding every pre-election projection.

This outcome raises a perennial question: just how reliable are exit polls in Bihar?

Exit Polls: Predicting Victory, But Missing the Magnitude

• Axis My India: Predicted the NDA would secure 121–141 seats, with the Mahagathbandhan expected to win 98–118 seats.
• Chanakya: Offered a bullish estimate of 160 seats (+/–12) for the NDA, capping the opposition at 77 seats (+/–13).
• Matrize: Projected 147–167 seats for the ruling alliance, while the Mahagathbandhan was expected to land 70–90 seats.
• People’s Pulse: Estimated 133–159 seats for the NDA and 87–102 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.
• JVC, DVC Research, Polstrat, and People’s Insight: Placed the NDA tally somewhere between the mid-130s and mid-150s.
• Poll of Polls Average: Offered an overall estimate of 148 seats, nearly 60 seats fewer than the NDA’s actual 206-seat haul.

Across the board, surveys correctly signalled that the NDA would win, but underestimated the intensity of voter support.

Bihar’s Exit Poll Pattern: A History of Surprises

This isn’t the first time exit polls in Bihar have struggled to capture the full picture. In 2020, most surveys predicted a Mahagathbandhan victory. Yet the NDA defied expectations, securing 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan managed 110, a result only a few pollsters had foreseen.

Looking further back, the 2015 elections provide an even sharper lesson. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav contested as allies under the Mahagathbandhan banner. Polls then had predicted a comfortable NDA tally of 155 seats versus 83 for the alliance. Instead, the Mahagathbandhan swept the state with 178 seats, leaving the NDA with just 58.

The 2025 results now extend this pattern: pollsters often get the direction right, who will win, but struggle to predict the magnitude. The NDA’s landslide demonstrates that Bihar voters can defy expectations in spectacular fashion.