Oil Prices Slip, OPEC+ Output Hike And Kurdistan Supply Raise Surplus Fears
The losses followed Monday’s steep sell-off, when both Brent and WTI closed more than 3 per cent lower, their sharpest daily decline since August 1, 2025.
- Crude oil prices dropped, extending Monday's declines significantly.
- Kurdistan resumed oil exports, increasing global supply expectations.
- OPEC+ is expected to approve further production hikes soon.
Crude oil prices slipped on Tuesday, extending Monday’s sharp declines, as the resumption of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region and expectations of another OPEC+ production hike reinforced fears of a looming supply surplus.
Brent crude futures for November delivery, expiring Tuesday, dropped 54 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to $67.43 a barrel by 8:50 am IST (0320 GMT), Reuters reported. The more active December contract also fell 53 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to $66.56 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 50 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to $62.95 a barrel.
The losses followed Monday’s steep sell-off, when both Brent and WTI closed more than 3 per cent lower, their sharpest daily decline since August 1, 2025.
OPEC+ Likely To Hike Output
Traders remained cautious ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where the group, comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, is widely expected to approve another output hike. Three sources familiar with the talks said OPEC+ is likely to raise production by at least 137,000 barrels per day for November.
“Although (OPEC+) is under their quota anyway, the market still does not seem to like the fact that more oil is coming in,” said Marex analyst Ed Meir.
Kurdistan Resumes Crude Exports
Adding to supply-side pressure, Iraq’s Kurdistan region restarted crude exports to Turkey over the weekend after a hiatus of over two years. The resumption followed an interim agreement that ended a long-standing dispute, Iraq’s oil ministry confirmed.
According to IG analyst Tony Sycamore, both the Kurdistan restart and OPEC+’s anticipated production hike are weighing on sentiment.
Supply Risks Vs Demand Concerns
Despite renewed supply, traders remain wary of geopolitical risks. Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries continue to pose threats to output, while demand-side uncertainty persists.
ANZ analysts observed that fears of a potential US government shutdown have added to the bearish tone, raising concerns over fuel demand and delaying critical US economic data, including Friday’s payrolls report, closely watched by Federal Reserve policymakers.
In the Middle East, US President Donald Trump secured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s backing for a US-proposed Gaza peace plan, though Hamas’s response remains uncertain.
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