What will happen to Bihar with JDU back in NDA?

Nitish Kumar. Photo: AP/File

As TV and newspaper correspondents from the national capital were paradropped in Patna to cover the swearing in of the Nitish Kumar-Sushil Modi Government, oped writers got busy with commentaries on its likely impact on national politics. Not many, however, were immediately concerned about what this might mean for the once ‘Bimaru’ State of Bihar. On a lighter vein, the only prediction that can be made with certainty is that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will not lift prohibition in Bihar even after the change of Government. But, on a serious note, much more is at stake if both Nitish and BJP wish this formation to be the springboard for the 2019 Lok Sabha election. One senior journalist, Sankarshan Thakur, who knows Nitish Kumar better than many, has made a very perceptive observation. While Nitish has been notoriously amoral in his pursuit of power, he has always tried to use power for the larger good of the people. This was the hallmark of Nitish’s two stints spanning 2005-2014 when “good governance” became the mantra in Bihar after the extended period of “Jungle Raj” before that. It was not just law and order that saw sharp improvement. If the first term saw huge thrust on infrastructure, roads and bridges, the high point of the second was rural electrification that literally swept him to power. Although industry did not exactly make a beeline for Bihar, green shoots were beginning to show. His Government’s Industrial Policy was one of the best not just in concept but also implementation. His officers were proactive and alive to the expectations of investors. They offered pragmatic solutions for land acquisition to those who were serious about putting money on the ground. Overall, the economy was looking up. With a more conducive social environment consumer spending went up. Car showrooms returned to Bihar. Better security encouraged people to invest in real estate. Snide comments are being made by Nitish’s detractors about his sudden discovery of Lalu Prasad Yadav's family being corrupt. Surely that was a justification meant only for public consumption. But it was his inability to provide governance that was stifling Nitish the most in the new coalition. The growing incidents of murder, kidnapping and lawlessness; the likes of Shahabuddin once again roaming freely; and Lalu-Rabri pulling the strings through their sons were becoming bigger threats to Nitish’s longer-term political career. In the view of this writer, it would be premature to say Nitish has given up his national ambitions. Going by his past track record, Nitish swapping bedfellows again cannot be totally ruled out. But he is shrewd enough to realise that without Bihar firmly under the belt, his standing on the national stage will be severely stunted. Therefore, delivery of his promises to the Bihar electorate is non-negotiable for Nitish. Over the last several months, the inner tension in the Mahagathbandhan was palpable and for all to see. There were enough straws in the wind and air kissing to signal the renewed affinity between Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi. While everyone was expecting a protracted denouement in which both sides would have an equal chance to play, the spectators were stunned by the speed and precision of the surgical strike. Herein, lies the political genius of Nitish and Amit Shah that they could outsmart even a past master in political manoeuvre like Lalu. In politics as in life, timing is everything. Even a few days delay and Nitish would have lost the moment with efforts already afoot to engineer defections from his party. Therefore, it had to happen now. Too bad, they could not give prior notice to friends in media, who were left totally shell-shocked before they could gather their wits and start packing to catch the first available flight to Patna. Now with less than two years to go for 2019, the JDU-BJP Government will have to go full speed on their 'Vikas' agenda. This is one more reason for which Nitish had to align with Narendra Modi. He realised without the support of the Centre he could not fast-track development in Bihar. This would be essential to take on the polarisation of the Yadav and Muslim votes that is bound to happen after this Maha-split. Another very respected social scientist from Bihar, Shaibal Gupta, hit the nail bang on the head when he said Bihar has no sub-nationalism, it has only castes. Without doubt Lalu and Tejashwi Yadav, with his newfound mojo, will go back to their constituencies positioning this as a betrayal of the Yadavs. In response, Nitish and BJP will have to consolidate the votes at the two extremes, the upper castes and maha-dalits, as Gupta incisively points out. And, only “achchhe din” can pull it off for them. One unanticipated backlash could be the return of the goons, disrupting the peace in the State. However, with the Damocles’s Sword of CBI hanging over their leaders and the law enforcement machinery both in the State and at the Centre strongly with the ruling dispensation, it would be difficult for the Bihari Bahubalis to get belligerent. So having accomplished their mission, the Nitish Kumar and Sushil Modi combine has to quickly get down to business. The coffers are dry after the liquor ban and the State needs a quick surge in commercial activity to kick-start the economy again. Special Central grants and investments can help in the short term but Bihar needs organic growth and direct investment for the longer term. Nitish Kumar understands that, to make his place in history as the modern-day Magadha Samrat rather than a wily Chanakya, he needs to transform Bihar. And, he has to restore the confidence and faith of the people that only he can do it by his performance in the coming 18 months. (Author is a writer and popular blogger on current affairs. His Twitter handle is @SandipGhose) Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.