Cost of Climate Change Is Rising In India, And We Need To Act Now

People from low-lying areas around the Yamuna river wade through floodwaters of the swollen river while relocating to a safer place, in New Delhi on July 12, 2023.

Source : PTI

With torrential rains hitting north India, the states of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and the UTs of Delhi and Chandigarh received record-breaking precipitation. Almost all rivers, canals and nallahs are in spate, and some have breached their banks. There were surreal sights of debris-loaded water, and in some even mud slides, barrelling down streets; of landslides; of temples, large buildings, bridges and roads being washed away; cars floating like toys on flooded roads; of muddy waters mixed with sewage pouring into residential areas; and of residential zones being submerged in and around Delhi. Just a couple of days’ rainfall has ended up inflicting massive damage to private property, infrastructure and the environment. 

The state governments as well as the Government of India have responded in the standard manner — deployment of modest-sized State Disaster Response Forces, the National Disaster Response Force, columns of the Army, etc. This was accompanied by the usual homilies from apex leaders about this being the forces of nature, and how they are monitoring the situation. Many even labelled, albeit incorrectly, this extraordinary precipitation as ‘heavy monsoon rains’, whereas, this was an extreme weather event triggered by climate change, with almost a monsoon month’s rainfall falling in 1-3 days. There is no city in India that can handle that kind of rainfall.  

Increase In Numbers And Scale Of Extreme Weather Events

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has for long been warning that climate change will impact India very severely. Its Sixth Assessment Report (March 2022) and the Synthesis Report (March 2023), while outlining that the pathways to limit global warming to the 1.5°C mark has narrowed, lists how climate change is likely to manifest itself in India, viz, an increase in the numbers, scale and intensity of climate change associated extreme weather events including erratic rainfall; a rise in ambient temperatures; and sea rise. It adds: “...the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events…could have dire consequences for agriculture, the economy, and public health…the need for policymakers to prioritise investments in disaster risk reduction, including early warning systems, evacuation plans, and infrastructure development to protect vulnerable populations.” 

Incidentally, even the domestic reports on the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) identify India as one of the global hotspots in terms of geographical and socio-economic vulnerabilities. 

Link Between Our Large Population And Finite Landmass

India accounts for just 2.4 percent of the world’s surface area, and has 4 percent of the world’s fresh water resources, but supports 17.7 percent (1.4 billion) of the world’s population. Increasing population, the aspirations for better living standards and spaces, and the government’s quest for higher GDP, etc, are together ensuring that industrialisation, infrastructure-building, living spaces and agriculture — all of which are land-use intensive — are competing for land in a finite landmass.

Disaster Vulnerability

With its large territory, and diverse geophysical and climatic conditions, India is one of the most disaster-prone regions of the world. According to official figures, 85 percent of India’s area is vulnerable to one or more type of hazards, with 57 percent being vulnerable to earthquakes [11.3 percent - Seismic Zone-V (i.e., MSK IX or more); 14.4 percent - Seismic Zone-IV (MSK VIII); 31.1 percent - Seismic Zone-III (MSK VII)], 18 percent to high wind velocity (55 - 50 m/s), 12.6 percent to landslides, 12 percent to floods and river erosion, and with 68 percent of the coastline (out of 7,516 kms) prone to cyclones and  tsunamis. The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has ranked India at No. 3 (after China and the USA) in recording the highest number of natural disasters over the 2000-2019 period. While we can’t do much to thwart seismic and hydrometeorological phenomena, there are many things we can do to lessen their impact.  

Need For Better Urban Planning And Arresting The Trend Towards Urbanisation

A new city or town has a gestation period of 5-8 years from conception to completion. This involves designing the city per se. This includes climate adaptation (energy-efficient buildings, green energy, water harvesting, waste recycling, green transportation); laying out of plots, water and electricity supply, sewage, flood drainage, roads, parks, public spaces and utilities, etc, and then ensuring compliance to design and standards. Much of that is missing — often people are being allowed to build where they feel like, in many cases, even without due permission. Perhaps that is why we see high-rises coming up near/on erstwhile river-beds, flood plains, in geologically/ecologically fragile zones, etc. There is an apocryphal story of how a so-called “millennium city” was constructed — a developer proposed the building of a new township to a government. When asked about roads, water, sewage disposal and electricity, the government told the developer to manage, adding that "we only give permissions". The focus however, has to be on building climate-adapted, future-ready cities and towns. This requires the evolution of new building codes and standards. 

While there is a trend towards urbanisation globally, in India, its sheer scale is overwhelming. One of the reasons for this trend is the neglect of rural spaces – bereft of good educational and medical facilities, they can only be improved now after large-scale demolitions. Reducing the size of land-holdings is another. 

Projections by the UN’s Habitat World Cities Report 2022 and the Government of India indicate that from an urban population of 37.7 crore (31.16% of India’s population) in 2011, and 48.3 crore in 2020 (34.9%), India’s urban population is expected to stand at 54.2 crore by 2025 and 67.5 crore in 2035, and between 81.4 crore and 87 crore by 2050. This is an unprecedented scale of migration from rural to urban zones — with 5.9 crore people expected to transfer from rural to urban areas just between 2020 and 2025. Most existing cities are already congested, with many living in slums/slum-like conditions (Census-2011: 63 percent of statutory towns had slums). Add to this trend towards urbanisation the need to build additional housing — stated policies envisage an increase from total residential floor space of around 20 billion square metres today, to more than 50 billion in two decades’ time. Urban spaces tend to severely aggravate climate risk. So, unless we design our urban spaces better, such accumulation is only going to lead to more congestion, lesser space for rainwaters to flow/seep, and in turn, will increase disaster vulnerability.

Inability to Build Climate-Adapted Cities And Reckless Pursuit of Infra Projects  

There seems to be sparse awareness that the more the urbanisation, the higher is the level of disaster vulnerability. Hence, all our urban spaces must be climate-adapted and future-ready. There is not a single town or city in India that is future-ready. On the other hand, a city that was well-designed, Chandigarh, is now facing incremental deterioration.    

Many projects are being pursued for electoral benefit or for increasing the GDP, with associated encroachments into geologically fragile zones, forests, biospheres, etc. There is sparse emphasis on sustainable development. There is also no thought that not only should the infrastructure be resilient, but that the service it provides should also be resilient. Importantly, the IPCC reports underscore that some of India’s infrastructure interventions are maladaptive, and instead of assisting development are likely to aggravate the disaster vulnerabilities.

Smart Cities & Public Apathy

A city may be “smart”, i.e., the officials precisely know what is happening and where in near-real-time — but in the end, it boils down to addressing each of those problems swiftly and competently. And for that, a “smart” force is required — the same old archaic, pedantic workforce with arcane tools won’t do.  

On July 8-9, Delhi received 153 mm of rain. This was followed by memes like “Connaught Place-Jheelon Ka Sagar”. There was no realisation that this rainfall was the highest since 1982. Worse, most who were making such memes are the same people who use energy recklessly and not efficiently, don’t segregate their garbage, throw away plastic, are reluctant to pay their taxes, encroach on every bit of space they can to their benefit including drains, etc — and remain unconcerned about who they elect as their leader(s) and seldom seek accountability from them. 

Cost Of Extreme Weather Events & The Way Forward

With climate change, extreme weather events (EWEs) are expected to increase in numbers, intensity and scale. Hence, unless we address the above issues and a few others too, such EWEs are going to impose increasingly severe costs on India. The incrementally exacerbated hazard and disaster risks will contribute to resource depletion, impinge on development and enhance poverty. It needs to be noted that given the job saturation in India, the resettlement of displaced persons, and restoration of their socio-cultural, livelihood and economic aspects of their lives are already an issue. It is on account of this broad dynamic that a body of opinion suggests that an economic, environmental and sustainability challenge may just be the beginning for India — unless of course we take suitable steps, competently and rapidly.

Brig. Kuldip Singh (retd) has, apart from the Armed Forces (1976-2006), also served as the Principal Director (Defence), National Security Council Secretariat (2006-2015), as Sr. Consultant in India's National Disaster Management Authority (2016-2021), and as Country Head of the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (Thailand) (2021-2022).

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