Tripura Twin Win In CPI(M) Strongholds A Big Boost For BJP Ahead Of Lok Sabha Polls

Tripura Chief Minister Manik Saha with BJP Tripura President Rajib Bhattacharjee and newly elected party MLAs Taffajal Hossain and Bindu Debnath in Agartala after the party's victory in the byelections to Boxanagar and Dhanpur Assembly seats.

Source : PTI

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is high on confidence in Tripura after winning the bypolls in Dhanpur and Boxanagar Assembly constituencies by massive margins. In the Dhanpur seat, the BJP’s candidate Bindu Debnath secured 70.35% votes while the Opposition CPI(M)’s Kaushik Chanda got 26.12% votes. In the Boxanagar seat, BJP candidate Tafajjal Hossain got 87.97% votes while the CPI(M)’s Mizan Hossain was able to rake in only 10.07% votes.

The bypoll results on Friday, undoubtedly, put the BJP in a comfortable position in the state ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. The twin win was also a relief for Chief Minister Manik Saha as the saffron party has not only been able to retain the Dhanpur seat but also wrest the Boxanagar seat from the CPI(M). Both constituencies are considered CPI(M) strongholds as they have been held by the Left for most assembly terms. But more importantly, the victory of Bindu Debnath, brother of Union minister Pratima Bhowmik, is also likely to strengthen the anti-Manik Saha camp within the party.

It is also noteworthy that the CPI-M ran a low-key campaign despite the fact that the ruling party usually has an advantage over the Opposition in bypolls. 

But do these results show a surge in BJP’s support or prove the allegations of "chhappa vote" (fake votes) as alleged by CPM? While the canvassing was largely peaceful with Opposition CPI-M candidates able to conduct their election campaign without any obstruction from the ruling BJP activists or supporters, on voting day, there were allegations of BJP activists intimidating voters. The CPI-M also alleged that BJP activists engaged in rigging, particularly in the Boxanagar seat, and later, boycotted counting votes. 

CPI-M Must Accept Its Failure

Obviously, the allegations of rigging can’t be just brushed away. But it can't be denied that these results are definitely a big setback for the CPI-M, whose attempt to win back Dhanpur and retain Boxanagar failed. Instead of levelling accusations, it must accept that it failed to lead an energetic campaign, despite the fact that the environment was largely peaceful in the run up to the election. 

It can't run away from the fact that it failed to put up a fight against the BJP at the organisation level, even in areas where it has traditionally been a strong force. Its failure to resist the BJP only reflects its organisational weakness. To add to its list of failures, the Left repeated the previously unsuccessful strategy of wooing the Tipra Motha during the bypolls as it did six months ago in the state election. 

Will the state saffron government get its first Muslim minister?

The massive victory of Tafajjal Hossain from Boxanagar has definitely brought cheers to the saffron camp. Now, with Boxanagar, a Muslim-majority constituency, the BJP has got its lone representative from the minority community in the state assembly.

Currently, there are three vacant posts in the state Cabinet. There is a possibility that Tafajjal may get a berth here to show that the BJP is not against the community. In fact, Chief Minister Manik Saha himself campaigned to ensure Tafajjal’s victory.

Bhaichung Bhutia's HSP And SDF Look To Come To Power With Merger 

Bhaichung Bhutia's Hamro Sikkim Party will reportedly merge with the main Opposition — Sikkim Democratic Front ­— of former CM Pawan Kumar Chamling on September 22. The assembly poll in the Himalayan state is likely to be held in April next year, around the time of the Lok Sabha polls. In the last assembly elections, the long rule of the SDF came to an end with the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha, a breakaway faction of SDF, wresting power and PS Tamang becoming the Chief Minister. 

However, the SKM's win came with a very thin margin. In the state assembly, it got 17 seats while SDF bagged 15. In terms of vote share, however, the SKM got just 0.6% votes less than the SDF, which secured 47.63% votes. Bhutia’s HSP, contesting 23 seats, got 0.6% votes.

Arithmetically, the merger of HSP with SDF is likely to provide some strength to the latter. The SDF has been trying to gain its lost base in the state and has sharpened its attack against the SKM in recent times. It has attacked the Tamang-led government on the issue of political violence and decreasing law and order. On the other hand, Bhutia's political relevance may increase after joining the SDF as his party has, so far, failed to emerge as a credible party among the voters of the state. 

It even joined hands with another regional outfit, the Sikkim Republican Party. This year, there was also speculation of the HSP joining hands with Congress. It seems that after trying all options available, Bhutia has now pinned his hopes on SDF.

NDA In Power In Assam, But Seat-Sharing Formula A Concern 

Last week, the constituents of the National Democratic Alliance of Assam met in Tinsukia to discuss next year’s Lok Sabha polls as well as issues faced by common people. Ministers, MLAs, and top leaders of BJP, including Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, and NDA partners, such as the Assam Gana Parishad and United People’s Party Liberal took part in the NDA meeting.

In the last Lok Sabha elections, the NDA bloc bagged 9 seats out of 14 — and this time, it is eyeing an increase. All the NDA seats were won by the BJP. The AGP, which contested 3 seats, failed to win even one. It contested Dhubri, Barpeta, and Kaliabor constituencies, which are mostly Muslim-dominated areas. But the regional party this time wants to contest from safe constituencies dominated by the Assamese-speaking population. 

This may create some tension during seat-sharing discussions among the partners. That’s the reason, the NDA is focussing on better coordination among the constituents to ensure smooth seat-sharing and has been holding meetings to fully prepare itself for the Lok Sabha polls against the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.

The author is a political commentator. 

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