Huge Disparities, Contradictory Conclusions: Exit Polls Have Only Added To The Confusion

A poll of the exit polls show Congress and BJP could each win and form governments in two states, and Mizoram is going with a regional party. 

Source : PTI

Assemnly Elections 2023: The much awaited exit polls conducted by various agencies in the five states that went to elections in November have released their results. A poll of the polls shows the Congress is winning Chhattisgarh and Telangana, and the BJP is getting Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, while Mizoram is headed for a hung house. The Congress and the BJP could each win and form governments in two states, and Mizoram is going with a regional party. 

Exit Polls 2023: Key Findings In Short 

Rajasthan: Out of 10 agencies, seven are predicting a BJP victory. A poll of these exit polls shows the BJP is set to form government in the state. The ABP-CVoter survey shows BJP is winning, while Axis My India puts the Congress marginally ahead with 96 seats against BJP’s 90 (midpoint of the range of projection).

Madhya Pradesh: Out of 10 agencies, the verdict is split with five each showing BJP and Congress victory or lead. Here, Axis My India predicts a BJP sweep with 151 seats while ABP-CVoter predicts a Congress victory with 125 seats (midpoint of the range of projection).

Chhattisgarh: There is a consensus among nine agencies on a Congress victory, with a range of 45-57 seats. But the contest is closer than expected by many. 

Telangana: There is unanimity on the Congress causing a big upset this southern state, defeating the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS). However, Axis My India numbers are still not out. 

Mizoram: Most agencies are predicting a hung house, but Axis My India has projected a ZPM victory while Matrize has predicted an MNF victory based on the midpoint of projection. 

Exit Polls Vs Opinion Polls

Exit polls are a better indicator of results and trends than opinion polls as they are conducted after the polling has taken place. Although the exit polls may not be able to accurately predict the seats and vote shares, they are generally able to correctly indicate the direction of the trend. 

However, since most states are facing a tight contest, one cannot rely just on these polls, due to a margin of error of 1%-3%. Further, in 2018, many agencies got it wrong across states. Nobody predicted Congress would win 99 seats in Rajasthan, 68 in Chhattisgarh, and BRS would get 88 seats in Telangana. 

Inexplicably Huge Disparities 

Consensus eluded pollsters this time too, as always. The big ranges makes the estimation also cumbersome. The lower end of the estimates by one agency and higher end by another agency for parties across polls show a huge gap, as shown in the table below. 

Two Big Agencies, Two Contradictory Conclusions 

Axis My India predicts a big win for the BJP in MP, while ABP-CVoter says the Congress is ahead. They have also given opposite predictions for Rajasthan, with ABP-CVoter saying BJP is winning, and Axis keeping the Congress ahead in a tight race and a hung assembly situation (basis mid-point of the range). In Mizoram, ABP-CVoter shows MNF single largest party, while Axis shows ZPM is winning. Only in Chhattisgarh do these top agencies appear to have a consensus. Telangana numbers for Axis My India were awaited at the time of writing. 

A Toss Up, Wait Till May 13

Given that many seats are close contest seats and were won by slender margins in 2018 (<5 percent victory margin), it is difficult to put money on any one horse. With exit polls, which are not actual polls, one needs to wait it out till the counting day to find out the actual verdict. So let’s wait it out till the 3rd of December. 

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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