OPINION | Would Xi Permit Elephant And Dragon To Dance On LAC?

With PM Modi-Xi talks expected soon, India seeks a peaceful LAC, Chinese troop reduction and revival of border confidence-building measures.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia in 2024.

Source : ANI

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• India seeks demilitarization and confidence-building measures.

As President Xi Jinping prepares to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi during the upcoming mid-Sept., BRICS summit, there is a palpable sense of anticipation surrounding this long-awaited bilateral engagement. Both leaders are expected to engage in discussions that could potentially reshape the dynamics of Sino-Indian relations, particularly in light of their likely informal meeting in Bishkek at the end of August, coinciding with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.

While Prime Minister Modi's previous attendance at the 2025 SCO summit in Tianjin provided an opportunity for dialogue, it did not yield significant progress in alleviating tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Despite the official narrative of a "peaceful and stable" border, the reality on the ground reveals that both nations remain vigilant, maintaining a robust military presence to deter any unexpected aggressive maneuvers.

India-China Officials Step Up Border Talks

In the lead-up to these high-level summits, the Special Representatives from both countries are set to engage in the 25th round of talks, with Chinese Politburo member and Foreign Minister Wang Yi meeting with India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. This dialogue aims to clarify previously agreed-upon points and expedite the resolution of the ongoing border disputes. The July end visit of Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri to Beijing, where he conferred with senior Chinese officials, underscores the urgency and importance of these discussions. Following his meetings in China, Misri's unannounced trip to Thimphu (3o-31 July)to meet with Bhutanese leaders further suggests a strategic approach to regional diplomacy, indicating that India is keen to involve Bhutan in the broader context of Sino-Indian relations.

The series of high-level meetings and diplomatic engagements between China and India signals a potential shift in the trajectory of their bilateral relations, particularly concerning the contentious border issues.

The international community will be closely monitoring these developments, as the implications of Sino-Indian relations extend beyond their borders, influencing regional security and economic dynamics in Asia.

India Seeks Chinese Troop Withdrawal From LAC

India has consistently emphasized that border tensions significantly affect bilateral relations, while China maintains that such issues should not hinder the development of other aspects of their partnership. India has called for the withdrawal of over 70,000 Chinese troops deployed on LAC, in Eastern Ladakh, where both nations have previously disengaged and returned to their positions prior to May 2020.

Galwan Clash Continues To Shape Border Dynamics

The incursion that led to the Galwan clash in June 2020 resulted in casualties on both sides, as soldiers engaged in physical confrontations. Although the situation escalated, the Chinese army ultimately relented, while India made concessions by establishing a buffer zone behind the Line of Actual Control. Despite this, the Chinese military has not reduced its troop presence and has instead increased it, compelling India to maintain over 50,000 troops in the challenging terrain to deter any potential advances.

The substantial military deployment in these harsh conditions poses a significant economic burden on India, whereas China appears less affected by the costs of maintaining a dense troop presence. It is evident that China aims to exert continuous pressure on the Indian army, potentially seeking to exhaust its resources and resolve.

'Early Harvest' Approach Offers Possible Path To Border Resolution

In 2017, prior to the Dokalam standoff, China proposed an “early harvest” approach to address the complex boundary negotiations between the two nations, suggesting that simpler issues, such as those concerning Sikkim, should be resolved first. This proposal, as conveyed by Chinese representatives, aimed for a comprehensive package that would facilitate progress in the long-standing territorial disputes. Reports indicate that India, albeit reluctantly, consented to this approach, which was reiterated during the 24th round of SR level talks. Currently, both nations are reportedly in the process of finalizing specific issues that can be resolved swiftly, thereby paving the way for a more constructive dialogue.

WMCC Talks Focus On Seven-Decade-Old Border Dispute

Against this backdrop, intense discussions are ongoing between high-ranking officials from India and China, aimed at advancing the resolution of the seven-decade-long border and territorial disputes. The two countries have engaged in consecutive meetings of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Border Affairs (WMCC), with the 35th and 36th rounds taking place in Beijing(27 May) and New Delhi(7 August), respectively. These official dialogues are crucial for establishing a framework that could lead to a more stable and peaceful coexistence along the contested borders, reflecting both nations' desire to manage their differences through diplomatic channels.

Arunachal Pradesh Naming Move Triggers Chinese Reaction

Amid these negotiations, India for the first time took a decisive step by officially naming certain villages and geographical features in Arunachal Pradesh, a move that has surprised the strategic community and elicited a strong reaction from China. In response to China's objections, India firmly reiterated that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of its territory. This assertive stance underscores India's unwavering commitment to its claims over Arunachal Pradesh, which it considers an inalienable province. Notably, Indian officials successfully negotiated with the Chinese army to withdraw from areas in Taksing, located in the Subansiri border district of Arunachal Pradesh, which India claims as its own. During this week-long standoff, local villagers played a significant role by vocally opposing the presence of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), further demonstrating the local population's support for India's territorial claims.

Border Ambiguity Adds To Incursion Concerns

Reports indicating Chinese incursions into Indian territories have been met with a degree of skepticism by officials within the Indian Army and the South Block. Kiran Rijiju, the Indian Minister of Parliamentary Affairs, has publicly addressed these concerns, attributing the misunderstandings to the lack of clearly demarcated borders. He emphasized that such ambiguities often lead to confusion among local patrolling units, resulting in inadvertent crossings into each other's territories.

India Signals Willingness For Rapprochement

The Indian government appears to be making concerted efforts to signal to China its willingness to foster a cooperative atmosphere ahead of the anticipated meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi in New Delhi. This approach aims to shift away from a confrontational stance, promoting dialogue and understanding instead. However, the potential for a successful Sino-Indian rapprochement hinges on the establishment of a stable and tension-free environment, which is contingent upon China taking significant steps to reduce its military presence along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Such a reduction is essential for progressing towards a resolution of the longstanding boundary issues that have historically strained relations between the two countries.

India Calls For Demilitarisation And Confidence-Building Measures

The immediate focus should be on encouraging China to demilitarize the border, specifically along the LAC, and to reinstate the various confidence-building measures that were agreed upon in previous years, namely in 1993, 1996, 2003, 2005, and 2013. These measures, if implemented faithfully, could pave the way for a more peaceful coexistence. For the metaphorical dance between the Indian elephant and the Chinese dragon, as often wished by the Chinese, to occur harmoniously, it is imperative that China commits to maintaining a peaceful and stable LAC. This would facilitate a return to the pre-Xi era (Xi took charge as a President in 2013), characterized by friendly exchanges, such as the sharing of sweets and cultural performances between the two armies, thereby fostering goodwill and mutual respect along the extensive 3,487-kilometer border.

(Ranjit Kumar is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst)